Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

..except it doesn't even Macht them Frei, just counts as part of their sentence.

..and they got it from the Chinese

[Pontius Navigator]

Each will probably need a skilled supervisor. They said the convicts would be doing lots of skilled work. My BiL had a job with BAE teaching and supervising Saudis on the Tornado.

They would be instructed, briefed on the task, and left to go the work while my BiL would be back in the line hut. After a while one would come and ask for more assistance. He would go out and show them what to do.

Turning back to see if they had understood, there they all were - gone. It was easier for him to just do the job.

I can imagine the same with the convicts.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

There was an air alert across Ukraine this morning. I would seem 3 Mig-31s with Khinzals got airborne out of Belarus.
They appear to have returned to Russia. Based on previous info, this would seem to leave no Russian Mig-31s in Belarus.
This is in line with the withdrawal of Russian ground troops from Belarus which started a few days ago.
No significant advances on any battlefront.
The Russians may have swapped frontline troops for Mobiks on the left bank of the Dnipro. Mobiks appear to be being used solely for defensive duties now, as their use in attacks around Bakhmut and Svatove simply resulted in their destruction.
If the Ukes can identify the location of the mobik units, and direct their attacks there when assaults recommence in a couple of weeks, the Russian front lines could crumble rapidly.

Lavrov is talking nuclear escalation again - it's just testiculation.
No mention of anything else at all by Russian or proxy media. They have no options, no clue, and no hope.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Another day passes with:

No Russian missile attack
More Ukrainian infrastructure repaired
More sporadic bits of Russian infrastructure mysteriously catching fire.
More semi-covert withdrawals of Russian troops from the left bank of the Dnipro
Another 17 square feet of mud captured by Wagner near Bakhmut.
More BS from the Russian media - this time it's the TV crowd trying to claim that it's everyone's fault, not just theirs and putin's.

..and the ground gets a little harder.

And so the next Ukrainian attack gets closer.

The western media in all countries have been producing articles titled with how important Bakhmut is.
If you bother to read the articles, there's no justification at all.
I don't think it's a Russian conspiracy, just another example of how poor western journalism now is.

Example: CBC headline

Why the battle for the small city of Bakhmut is so important to both Russia and Ukraine

Then the very next line is

Conditions are terrible, casualties are enormous and significance of Bakhmut is debatable

So, it's not important. And the body of the article says that Russia is not doing it, but Wagner is, for the money. No reason is offered to say it's important to Ukraine.

So, just rubbish really. Completely false headline.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/ukraine-w ... -1.6670438

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Well, this is a trip down memory lane..

UK Ministry of Defence reporting that the Kh-22 "Kitchen" missiles have been blowing up in-flight, which is why Russia isn't using them any more.
Detail here:



(My job #1 on my first squadron was to shoot down the Backfires and Bears carrying these things.)

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Running down the Russian missile inventory, I'm even more convinced that they are down to using new production only.


We can cross off the list as follows
Iskander - down to 15% of original stock. These probably earmarked for specific targets or as theatre nuclear weapons
3M-55 Onyx - anti-ship only
S-300 - ground mode has been used - too inaccurate for anything except city terror attacks.

Kalibr - 2/3 used. Rest earmarked as main long range strike against NATO / China
Kh-101 - half used. As per Kalibr
Kh-555 - half used. Possibly the most accurate. Reserved for precision attack against NATO / China, HQs and the like.
Kh-22/32 - 2/3 used. 22s probably withdrawn from service, 32s kept for attacks on US Carrier groups
Kh-35 - anti-ship only
Kh-47M2 - only 43 remain - being kept for use against prime targets such as Carrier Battle Groups and nuclear launch facilities.

Remember that the Russians have discovered that their conventional air force with bombs and short-range missiles is more vulnerable than they had hoped, which means they need to keep more long range missiles back.

[FD2]

Just when you really wish you could trust what you read in the papers:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... mself.html

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

A worrying development...he will now no longer be full of nine-dots-and-a-dash!

[Boac]

He needs to be careful he doesn't slip while near an open window.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Slip on the spilt tea?

[FD2]

Leaving a big skid mark behind?

[PHXPhlyer]

Leaving a big skid mark behind?

Sounds like he's already done that, and then some.

PP

[Boac]

I think the word is schadenfreude?

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Maybe Schatenfreude ?

Anyway, moving swiftly on...

The weather is key now.
I think the Ukes are ready for another assault, and just waiting on the weather.
Obviously they need to get moving because of the missile attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure.
The Russians will probably get only one more strike in before mid-December.





Civilians being evacuated from the left bank (i.e. Russian-occupied) of the Dnipro

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/12/3/7379083/

[Pontius Navigator]

Running down the Russian missile inventory, I'm even more convinced that they are down to using new production only.


We can cross off the list as follows
Iskander - down to 15% of original stock. These probably earmarked for specific targets or as theatre nuclear weapons
3M-55 Onyx - anti-ship only
S-300 - ground mode has been used - too inaccurate for anything except city terror attacks.

Kalibr - 2/3 used. Rest earmarked as main long range strike against NATO / China
Kh-101 - half used. As per Kalibr
Kh-555 - half used. Possibly the most accurate. Reserved for precision attack against NATO / China, HQs and the like.
Kh-22/32 - 2/3 used. 22s probably withdrawn from service, 32s kept for attacks on US Carrier groups
Kh-35 - anti-ship only
Kh-47M2 - only 43 remain - being kept for use against prime targets such as Carrier Battle Groups and nuclear launch facilities.

Remember that the Russians have discovered that their conventional air force with bombs and short-range missiles is more vulnerable than they had hoped, which means they need to keep more long range missiles back.

And you will recall the assumption of a mass Badger raid with ARM on the UKADGE followed by Backfire bombers and Fencers in the south.
IIRC you had enough missiles for 2 per target after which you were shot out (and I include reloads) and our Bloodhound backstop with one reload per launcher.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Yup, that's about all we had.
Efficiency was hammered into our thick skulls at every briefing.
We were keeping our fingers crossed that Skyflash's little bits of magic could overcome their ECM, and we all decided we needed to get very good with the gun.

..and we all also decided we needed somewhere to run to if the UK did become a smoking, glowing ruin!

Speaking of which, on offer this week from my Chinese supplier are geiger counters, jackhammers, and inverters - everything you need for a DIY bunker.
Somebody must be buying them.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

At least 3 Bears airborne out of Engels, with the Black Sea fleet still having missile carriers at sea.
Probably another false alarm, but the Air Raid warnings are out across Ukraine, and the next missile attack has to come soon.

On the left bank of the Dnipro, the collaborators and their families have been evacuated from Oleshky (just over the Antonovsky Bridge). This is normally a precursor to either complete abandonment, or an expected Ukrainian attack followed by a complete abandonment! It is believed only Mobiks are now in the town.
Some cheeky soul has put a Ukrainian flag up on a crane on the left bank, just opposite Kherson. The Russians have no troops nearby and are unlikely to risk anyone to try and take it down.


Ukrainian resistance posters and yellow ribbons have appeared in Henichesk. This is where the Russians set up their civilian admin for the remaining bit of Kherson Oblast that they hold.

I stand by my call of a few weeks ago that this area is completely untenable if the Ukes attack, and the Russians will pull back to Crimea.
Since the Russians have just started shelling the electricity infrastructure in Kherson, we can expect some sort of Ukrainian response to stop them doing this. Quite what, I don't know.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

ISW reporting that Russian milbloggers are also now questioning why the Russian missile campaign against Ukrainian infrastructure is so slow and weak.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Looks like another missile strike false alarm.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Now



No light, no electricity, no gas, no heat.
Queuing for hours for food handouts, maybe.
Digging graves before the ground gets too hard; best to think ahead
-6 tonight.

The locals are not best pleased with their new bosses