I agree that comms destruction is highly indicative of proximate action.
However, I suspect it will not take long to deplete the weapons stocks on the north side of the Dnipro.
The lack of resupply will force the Orcs to use the stocks they have in existing (though maybe previously hidden) depots. With all the intelligence data available to the Ukes, those depots will be getting arty strikes with the morning milk delivery.
will we survive a first nuclear strike and emerge as a functional society!
Define "functioning society", and justify that the current state of affairs meets that definition.
Forgive the ninja-grade cynicism, but when the subject is nuclear war, I feel it's the best starting position
I agree that comms destruction is highly indicative of proximate action.
However, I suspect it will not take long to deplete the weapons stocks on the north side of the Dnipro.
The lack of resupply will force the Orcs to use the stocks they have in existing (though maybe previously hidden) depots. With all the intelligence data available to the Ukes, those depots will be getting arty strikes with the morning milk delivery.
will we survive a first nuclear strike and emerge as a functional society!
Define "functioning society", and justify that the current state of affairs meets that definition.
Forgive the ninja-grade cynicism, but when the subject is nuclear war, I feel it's the best starting position
Let's debate that after the first 5 Megaton over ...<<EXPURGATED>:>
My necessaries are embark'd: farewell. Adieu! I have too grieved a heart to take a tedious leave.
The quick way to deal with this is to declare that any damage to the reactors will be treated as a nuclear attack and induce a NATO response - after all, the radiation will spread over NATO countries.
.
the dreamers of the day are dangerous men, for they may act on their dreams with open eyes, to make them possible.
I agree that the possibility to use that is there, in the event of major destruction and rupture of the containment vessels, but the likelihood is that there will be a much more nebulous accident which will be hard to use as the justification for the use of nukes. I suspect, like several other Russian propaganda efforts, the major NATO nation diplomats have told Putin what the score is, as the prominence of this has backed off in recent days in Russian propaganda.
President Vladimir Zelensky on Monday fired the heads of three regional offices of the nation’s Security Service (SBU), Ukraine’s successor to the KGB. Earlier, he dismissed the top official in the agency, citing widespread treason among agents."""
The move was reportedly not perceived positively by the US government, which publicly maintains unwavering support for the Ukrainian president. But according to US media, White House officials have said privately that there is growing mistrust in Washington over Zelensky’s increasingly authoritarian rule.""
I think the possibility of bad agents is quite likely. There was a report recently about an official in Kiev who, prior to the invasion, was already creating a puppet administration for the city complete with demonstrators set up to support the Russians.
Et tu, Brute.
.
the dreamers of the day are dangerous men, for they may act on their dreams with open eyes, to make them possible.
Main electricity distribution sub-station on fire in Dzhankoi, northern Crimea.
The significance is that Dzhankoi is the major railway junction where the line splits to go up to the Kherson and the Nova Kakhovka rail bridges across the Dnipro...
..and the railway is electrified.
Very good!
Nukes
Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu said during a speech at the Moscow international security conference that Russia had no need to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine.
Nukes
Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu said during a speech at the Moscow international security conference that Russia had no need to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine.
So, they've backed off there.
Hardly reassured! How far can you throw Sergie....?
ammo and Grad rocket launchers stacked beside the railway in Dzhanskoye, which is probably what you can hear going off in the video in the earlier post.
The Ukes are steadily working their way back down the rail lines from the front. They hit a bridge or other significant point, wait a couple of days, then hit the next place further back AND the associated ammo piles built up due to the destruction of the line ahead.
The airbase 18m west of the previous one also has explosions heard on it, according to Russian sources. It did have around 20 fighter/bombers on it, but may have more or less today depending on the actions taken after the first one was hit.
Existing ammo dumps north of Kherson are also being hit.
The Russians can't keep taking losses like this - on the north side of the Dnipro, they will be out of ammo and supplies in a couple of weeks, possibly less.
Furthermore, cutting the line at the Dzhanskoye junction now cuts off the Black Sea ports and airbases from resupply by rail, including Sebastapol and Simferopol.
I think the Ukraine war is more transformational then most of us can appreciate at this point and it will become a Master Class for future military studies.
So much has changed that may appear so insignificant but that could be so important. The videos of individuals being killed by drones is an example. Until this very conflict many of the combatants were relatively safe most of the time. They were behind the front lines, reasonably well protected in prepared positions and out of the range of enemy artillery. Now, even if you are well away from actual conflict you can't even go for a pee without checking the sky for drones and these drone visits are very personal. It is YOU they want to kill.
This surely must have a great effect on fatigue and morale.
.
the dreamers of the day are dangerous men, for they may act on their dreams with open eyes, to make them possible.
Russian military sites in Crimea keep exploding, hinting at growing Ukrainian ambitions and abilities
A series of blasts hit a Russian military depot in the annexed peninsula Tuesday, suggesting a growing Ukrainian ability to strike deep behind enemy lines.
Crimea is now at the heart of what appears to be an audacious Ukrainian effort to target Russian supply lines and morale.
A series of blasts hit a Russian military depot in the annexed peninsula Tuesday — rocking the relaxed summer holiday destination for the second time in a week and suggesting a growing Ukrainian ability to strike deep behind enemy lines.
It’s a significant development that could shift the dynamics of the war as it nears the six-month mark, and which defies warnings from Moscow against attacking a region that holds deep strategic and symbolic value for Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Russia said “sabotage” was behind the latest explosions, a shift from its rhetoric last week that an accidental detonation of munitions caused explosions that left severe destruction at an air base in western Crimea.
Videos circulating online Tuesday showed plumes of gray smoke rising over flames near the village of Mayskoye in the northern Crimean district of Dzhankoi after a series of explosions at an ammunition warehouse, and satellite imagery reviewed by NBC News showed a column of smoke near Dzhankoi.
Moscow’s admission that the latest blasts weren’t mere accidents could be pivotal for the conflict going forward, since the Kremlin has signaled it considers attacks there to be a red line.
The peninsula holds huge value for both Moscow, which annexed it in 2014 after a referendum that was not recognized by most of the international community, and Kyiv, which has vowed to reclaim Crimea as its land.
It has been a major strategic hub for Russia’s invasion of mainland Ukraine, providing important supply routes for its forces occupying the south and military bases to support its war operations. It’s also home to Russia’s Black Sea fleet.
Kyiv did not confirm or deny responsibility for the latest explosions, but top Ukrainian officials have heavily hinted at their country’s involvement.
“Crimea occupied by Russians is about warehouse explosions and high risk of death for invaders and thieves,” President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s adviser, Mykhailo Podolyak, tweeted Tuesday.
“Our soldiers are the best sponsors of good mood. Crimea is Ukraine,” the head of Zelenskyy’s office, Andriy Yermak, also said after the explosions.
In a thinly veiled message late Tuesday, Zelenskyy urged his compatriots in Crimea and other Russian-occupied territories to stay away from Russian military sites. He added that evidence of people fleeing the area in the wake of the explosions shows that Russians "already understand or at least feel that Crimea is not a place for them."
“You’re not going to have all these explosions in Crimea by accident,” said Phillips O’Brien, professor of strategic studies at the University of St. Andrews in Scotland. “These are vital military facilities that are being hit very effectively, and they show signs of preparation.”
The explosions could be the work of Ukrainian special forces on the ground, local saboteur units, long-range weapons or a mix of all three, O’Brien said.
Kyiv hasn’t officially taken responsibility “to try and keep Russia off balance and uncertain about where the next attack may come and what Ukraine is capable of doing,” said Neil Melvin, director of international security studies at the Royal United Services Institute, a London-based think tank.
In the military sense, the explosions are reducing the flow of ammunition to Russian troops in Ukraine’s south and forcing the Russians to do more to defend Crimea, according to O’Brien.
They are likely to leave Russian commanders increasingly concerned with the apparent deterioration in security across Crimea, Britain’s Defense Ministry wrote on Twitter on Wednesday.
But there is also an important psychological factor at play, O’Brien added.
“To show that indeed Crimea is not safe and not under strong Russian control, that is a very powerful political statement,” O’Brien said. “It reinforces the fact that Crimea is part of Ukraine.”
The new explosions in Crimea come as Ukraine has been building toward a counterattack in its south, large chunks of which have been occupied by Russia since the early days of the invasion.
The attacks on Russian positions in Crimea are “likely part of a coherent Ukrainian counter-offensive to regain control of the west bank of the Dnipro River,” according to the latest assessment by the Institute for the Study of War, a U.S.-based military think tank.
Podolyak, Zelenskyy’s adviser, told the Guardian on Tuesday that Ukraine is engaged in a counteroffensive aimed at creating “chaos” within Russian forces by striking their supply lines and military infrastructure deep into occupied territories.
For Melvin, the explosions in Crimea are part of the first phase of the long-anticipated Ukrainian counterattack and what military analysts call “shaping the battle” ahead of the main offensive — trying to reduce Russia’s ability to resist that attack, including by targeting Moscow’s air power in Crimea.
But striking Russian positions there could also signal a change in the scope of Ukraine's war effort, Melvin said.
Until last week, the feeling was that any fight back would be focused on retaking territory lost since the invasion earlier this year. “But what they have shown actually is that they are not going to accept that territories taken before the war began are part of Russia,” Melvin said.
“Crimea is clearly now not off limits,” he added. “Now it looks like the whole territory of Ukraine is really within the goal of the Kyiv leadership.”
I'd beg to differ with all of that.
Once Russia failed in its 3 day coup attempt, and the west started supporting Ukraine, the Russians were always going to lose. They don't have the logistics efficiency, and they don't have the manpower (either numbers or skills). The Ukes could always do sabotage, it was just a question of how and when they started to do it. They can do a lot more if they want.
And the Russians as well as everyone else knew the west bank of the Dnipro was critical, because it guarantees the water supply for Crimea. Without it, Crimea is unsustainable.
Until last week, the feeling was that any fight back would be focused on retaking territory lost since the invasion earlier this year.
No, the Ukrainians said not explicitly a long time ago.
Most of the coverage of the war by the media has been absolutely dire, and this piece is no exception.
Grain of salt. Reporting says they were to travel in the same car but Daddy decided to remain a little longer at a meeting so Daughter left alone in the scheduled car.
It appears that she was as nasty as her father so it all counts.
.
the dreamers of the day are dangerous men, for they may act on their dreams with open eyes, to make them possible.
Instead of putting lots of small holes in the Antonivsky Bridge, the Ukes have really done for it this time. They let the Russians fix it, then hit the first ammo convoy as it was crossing. Big explosions and I believe it's still burning.
After the Ukes taking out the Nova Kakhovka ammo dump last week, the Russians built another one on the outskirts of Kakhovka, about 5 miles back... which the Ukes have just hit.
Rinse and repeat https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FaxGUwtWAAE ... me=900x900
If it was a deliberate act (and why wouldn't it be?) to hit the ammo convoy whilst it was on the bridge, that would appear to be some superb intel (knowing the nature, route and speed of the convoy) combined with excellent artillery skills. Most impressive!
