Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

'And quiet flows the Don' by Mikhail Sholokhov, is a favourite of mine.

not by the plough is our glorious earth furrowed....
our earth is furrowed by horses' hooves,
and sown is our earth with the heads of Cossacks.
fair is our quiet Don with young widows,
our father, the quiet Don, blossoms with orphans,
and the waves of the quiet Don are filled
with fathers' and mothers' tears.

Freedom of Russia, etc, are using a single spokesman. He claims this morning that they still hold Tetkino in Kursk Oblast, and 4 other settlements in Kursk and Belgorod Oblasts are under attack.
They have clarified that the attacks in Belgorod city are by their drones, not troops on the ground.

I am not convinced by any of the current Russian claims. I think they may either be staged, or not taken recently. The one at the border looks particularly dodgy.
I do expect a demand for a strong response by putin, given the purpose is to disrupt the elections.
However, it will probably take till later today to hit back at the main incursion, and the rest may take the weekend.
I don't think the Russians have the skilled troops or the logistics to do this quickly.
There may be air strikes today also.

[probes]

The embarrassment for putin is said to be the young recruits who just fled and left the equipment behind (and who would blame them? they're not trained yet, after all), indicating putin has no real force to protect the border (any more?).

The interview I mentioned before - the guy said it's nothing like the pro mil has seen before, as they aren't even trained to be the 'smaller' army who cannot ask for the fighters and helicopters to come any minute and back them up.

UKR spokesman said they have a plan to reduce blood money from oil etc as much as possible (by targeting the critical equipment). Yesterday there were reports of UKR hackers disrupting the system for undergound and bus card functions, which must be annoying.

P.S. Fox, what interesting favorites!

[probes]

Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council Dmitry Medvedev has laid out the details of the so-called Russian Peace Formula, which would require the capitulation of Ukraine, "payment of all due compensations to Russia" and "adoption of an act on the reunification of the former territories of 'Ukraine' with the Russian Federation" in return for Russia ending hostilities.

Source: Medvedev on Telegram

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

So, it's a Deathmatch, officially now.
One wonders if the western allies will ever get their fingers out. If Ukraine doesn't win it by the end of this Fall, and Trump does withdraw support when he gets in, then Ukraine will get occupied.
However, I still think they'll be forced to pull out again after a few years with guerrilla warfare, but there will be an awful lot more death and misery by then.

putin may just be saying this to appease his more polemic supporters, pre-election, but I don't think any kind of backtracking later will work.

I think it will increase the chances of Ukraine launching some sort of assault directly into Russia this summer - they have to go for broke now.
It will initially only involve non-western equipment (though they may have to use some western-sourced old Soviet equipment).
Probably blow all the oil and gas pipelines also.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

'And quiet flows the Don' is currently available on Youtube,
both the audiobook (two versions)



and the 1957 film

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Just published..

Czech and Polish Foreign Ministries explain why it is necessary to immediately help Ukraine to win

The EU is moving in the right direction but too slow and too late.

https://www.eurointegration.com.ua/eng/ ... 4/7181728/
https://www.eurointegration.com.ua/eng/ ... 4/7181690/

So, that's two of the allies who are going to get their fingers out, it seems

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Colonel-General Oleksandr Syrskyi, Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, announced the start of a rotation and replacement process for units and subunits that have been performing combat missions on the front lines for a long time.

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/03/14/7446471/

If I were him, I'd rest these most experienced troops, bring them up to strength, give them a while to train the new guys, then use them in a main assault in July.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Video reportedly from the centre of Belgorod city, with multiple vehicles burning on a smoke-covered highway.
https://mstdn.social/@noelreports/112094572363444014
The insurgents claim to have penetrated "several dozen kilometres" into Russia.
The centre of Belgorod city is 37 km from the border.

putin is going to go ape-sh!t about this - toys-out-of-cot time.

Some Ukrainian city is going to get hammered soon, I expect.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

On further review, I still think all the Russian footage of the supposed border attack being defeated is staged.
I note especially that the sprockets on the tank are still turning, and there is nothing other than cosmetic damage to the rear of the tank.
There are also no bodies anywhere.

I don't know about the three helos. There's no way to tell whose helos they are, the date, or the location.
The Russians are claiming it is near Novopavlivka, Donetsk Oblast.
I can't place it there, and neither has anyone else on geolocated.com, yet.

Russian media and foreign proxies are still maintaining the illusion that there are no current incursions, and nothing significant has been damaged.
The big refineries are shut down "for assessment", not because they are ablaze/damaged beyond repair.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

The Russians are evacuating Grayvoron, 8 km from the border. We now have another possible reason why they commandeered the Belgorod bus station yesterday.

The Russians are also closing all city shopping centres in Belgorod Oblast, as of this evening "for safety", "at citizens' requests".
Yeah, right. They are running out of supplies is what's happening.

[Boac]

Michael Green said to be 'uncertain of his position'. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/p ... 12675.html

Is this a surprise?

[probes]

Some Ukrainian city is going to get hammered soon, I expect.

aren't they anyway?

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

I meant, significantly more than usual.

Meanwhile, trouble at mill.
Russian insurgents allowing a humanitarian ceasefire until 0700 tomorrow for civilians to evacuate a significant border area.

https://mstdn.social/@noelreports/112095643107239789

Russians are still maintaining that it's the Ukrainians who invaded, and that they have all been defeated.
Everyone on the ground in the area knows this is total lies, so I wonder when reality happens for putin?

Russian channels are reporting both a Russian insurgent insertion by helo, which is a new tactic, and heavy artillery battles in Tetkino and the surrounding settlements.
I doubt the Russians care who they shell.
e.g.
https://mstdn.social/@noelreports/112095615209832749

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Ukrainian Intelligence claiming that the transport hubs, like bus stations, were not taken over by the Russian military to evacuate civilians, but the opposite; to stop civilians evacuating themselves. Furthermore, any civilian attempting to leave the area is being threatened with fines and dismissal from employment.

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/03/14/7446532/

[probes]

Yes, analysts tend to support the understanding that ruz can't allow any confusion or optics of hords of people evacuating during the general festivities of the beloved putin being hailed again. Medical checks and prizes like a new car (which is a big deal in ruz), apartments or computers and stuff are offered for people to turn up (and vote correctly). BUT, turning up at noon (the against-putin campaign on the 17th) could result in a 5 year sentence .

[probes]

Oil refinery in Kaluga attacked, equipment damaged

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Ah, yes - the classic Russian tactic of "intercepting" Ukrainian weapons by throwing the target at it

The Russian media are digging themselves a huge hole here, internally. They are persisting in insisting that all attacks across the border have been repelled, no major facilities have been significantly damaged, and the Ukrainians are taking huge losses in trying.
One report in RT mentions a single vehicle in Belgorod city being hit by what they have identified as an RM-70 rocket.....but Belgorod is 35 km from the border and the RM-70 has a max range of 20 km.
So, even within themselves, their reports are now clearly lies.
They used to try a bit harder last year, at least publishing stuff which gave entirely the wrong impression but wasn't, legally at least, a lie.
It's now full-on "Everything is wonderful!" mode. Must be the election.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Well, there's a lot of noise in Belgorod

https://mstdn.social/@noelreports/112100436605794981

..but no way to tell how much is incoming and how much is outgoing.
Could just be anti-aircraft fire against a few small drones.

[probes]

Ukrainian drones hit two oil refineries in Russia's Samara region

[tango15]

Michael Green said to be 'uncertain of his position'. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/p ... 12675.html

Is this a surprise?

A slight aside here, but I think all the media outlets described the Falcon as an RAF plane - it isn't. There are two, and they both carry a civil registration (G-ZAHS and G-ZABH). Both are registered to Centreline Aviation in Bristol and are leased to the RAF. I'd have thought that, on that basis, there were grounds for a complaint to ICAO.