Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

[Pinky the pilot]

Fox3; There was a report on the TV news here in South Australia last night of a captured Ukranian Soldier, shown in a very brief Video clip, standing, having a cigarette and saying 'Glory to Ukraine'. The video clip finished abruptly, and the TV Newreader then said that the Soldier was summarily shot within seconds of the video ending.

[boing]

There are video clips of the execution itself available - I have not watched them. From reports the soldier knew he was to be executed because the shots occurred so quickly after he said "Salve Ukraine". It appears that the rifles were already trained on him as he spoke.

Not only video evidence of war crimes but this should also stun and silence every pro-Russian voice in civilised countries. It makes you not only wish to see every Russian possible killed in combat but also see every officer in the Russian army on a gallows and every Russian politician disemboweled.

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[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

I generally avoid war crimes discussion. We only see one side of the story.
The way we see it, it looks like one Russian soldier just got p!ssed off with the "Slava Ukraini" and shot him, and the others joined in. This is of course a war crime.
The Ukrainian sources I've seen report that the prisoner was disobeying orders given by the Russians. We do not know what orders he disobeyed, and whether the Russian soldiers were therefore justified in considering him a risk. Whilst it is stated he was unarmed, the Russians may not have searched him yet. 'Isn't holding a rifle' is not the same as 'unarmed'. His position and their guns trained on him would indicate he had not yet been. I have seen video today of Ukrainian troops conducting themselves in the same way with Russians who had just surrendered and had not yet been searched. In that one the Russians are co-operating and so don't get shot.

It's always worth recalling just how many actions done by allied servicemen over the years would be war crimes if presented in the same way. The bombing of Dresden in Feb 1945 being a good example.

The Ukrainians are also bringing up the theatre aerial bombing in Mariupol, pointing out the "Children" painted in large letters outside. Well, you can't see that from a bomber at low level over a city, and we don't know whether the Russians had any grounds for suspecting it was occupied by the military. I have seen video where the Ukrainians were using military buses to bring civilians to work and refugees to relocation centres. The Russians have no way of knowing who is in the buses. There was also the strike by Ukrainian artillery on a Russian requisitioned but civilian-marked bus waiting for the ferry at Dar'ivka. Unfortunately, that turned out to be full of Ukrainian employees being taken to work. Nobody in the west's calling that a war crime, but the Ukrainians stopped hitting buses after that.

So, whilst I strongly suspect that the vast majority of these incidents will turn out to be war crimes, I will leave things to the lawyers afterwards.
I do call things out which are indisputably war crimes, but I don't think the number is important for the conduct of the war, or to convince people who are convince-able.
I don't think any more reason is needed to want Ukraine to win, and the Russian actions are counterproductive to their own cause in any case. The Ukrainians in Bakhmut will never surrender after what happened in Azovstal.

[boing]

Fox, with the Bakhmut situation added to the general picture in Ukraine there are a hundred different ways the play could proceed. I strongly suspect that the future will be a matter of taking advantage of unexpected events as they occur.

For example, Ukraine may have a long term plan for a counteroffensive but if Russian forces are shown to be more weakened than anticipated the relief of Bakhmut, with some nimble footwork, could turn into a rout that shoves the Russians back to their border. It appears that the Russians are moving forces to the Bakhmut area, good, this is going to weaken them in other areas. What if the Ukrainians begin to overcome the Russians in those areas does Putin move forces back and risk Bakhmut again? After all the hype if Russia is only stopped in Bakhmut as opposed to defeated this will be seen as a very great setback. If Bakhmut is actually recaptured it will change from a setback to a disaster. If Bakhmut falls and reveals that the Russians are unexpectedly weak then it could lead to a rout.

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[boing]

Fox your convoluted viewpoint is BS. The poor guy is standing in a shallow hole, possibly dug by himself because the soil is freshly disturbed. He has clearly been in captivity long enough to get a cigarette and start smoking it, if the Russians have not searched him thoroughly by now what the hell have they been doing for the last ten minutes. The poor fellow shows absolutely no physically aggressive intent, his hands are visible and above his waistline at all times, he is moving slowly and he is clearly outnumbered. No, this was a prepared set up to an execution, no doubt whatsoever, they were trying to get him to grovel but they cracked when he said "'Salve Ukraine" because they realised at this time all their hopes had gone to Hell.

Analyse as much as you want but I have no problem with cognitive dissonance, if I had got control of this lot after witnessing this event they would have died in a far slower and more painful way than this fellow did.

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[Pinky the pilot]

the execution

Point of order, boing; It was not an execution!

It was murder!

There is a difference between the two!

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Boing - I agree with your analysis in 3784.
As to the shooting, we will have to agree to differ.
You will note I agree with you on a prima facie viewing.
And that I also suspect based on previous events that it was simple murder triggered by his comment.
However, I simply don't know what the Russians were saying to him, and if he was refusing instructions (as the Ukrainian reports said) and hadn't been searched, then there is doubt.
You will recall the incident last year when the Ukrainians shot a bunch of surrendered Russians, who were on their knees with their hands on their heads and co-operating, because the last one to leave the building came out armed and shooting.
Shouldn't they just have shot the armed one?

[boing]

Fox, following this rabbit-hole would cause us to get into a discussion of ethics not only in combat but in life itself which is a much deeper and more involved subject than we could ever investigate on this site never mind in this particular post so better to stop here. We have both been in positions where "national interest" or "duty" was supposed to justify us carrying out unpleasant actions.

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[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

I quite agree.

Meanwhile, back at the ranch...

Weather in Bakhmut is above freezing most nights for the next fortnight; very light showers, moderate breezes, increasing sunshine.
Weather around Svatove in the north will be about 2 degrees cooler, and around Zaporizhzhia in the south about a degree warmer with a touch more rain this week but still not much, and more sun next week.

The mud should start drying out.

Polish, German and Portuguese Leopards are all expected to be delivered with trained personnel by the end of the month. I am not expecting anything except the M1 Abrams to take much longer. The personnel for all the promised AFVs should be trained by mid-April at the latest. I believe they are combining co-operative assault tactics along with the basic vehicle operation.

La Nina conditions are expected to switch quickly to El Nino in the next month or so.

IF the weather continues to improve - and the long range forecast through the Spring shows a little above normal temperatures and normal precipitation (as expected with El Nino) - then the rasputitsa could end significantly earlier than normal.

I expect the Ukrainians to try to minimise any Russian advances in order to keep the Russian troops locked in to attempting some breakthrough for internal PR purposes.
The Ukes will obviously need to avoid draining their own increasing resources to achieve that.

We may expect, I think, a limited counterattack with the new AFVs sometime in May. This should enable any necessary retraining to be identified, and tactics to be be refined. However, the Ukes may skip this.

We should expect a full scale counterattack (or attacks) to begin as soon as the ground is suitable, which may be as early as late May this year.

I do not think there will be much changing before then.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

President of Georgia is apparently supporting the protesters.


Huge rally tonight outside the Georgian Parliament, Police using tear gas

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Presumably to make up for the US unwillingness to supply F16s, Poland has announced today it will supply its remaining Mig29s, around 30 aircraft.
This is also the first anniversary of the US refusing the first time Poland offered to do this.
There are also reports that fitting Mig29s with AMRAAM is being investigated. I will be surprised if this gets anywhere, unless someone knows different?

[G-CPTN]

Poland has announced today it will supply its remaining Mig29s, around 30 aircraft.

No mean offer.

Poland had 23 MiG-29s in service as of 2021.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Another Russian missile strike on Ukraine overnight.

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/03/9/7392618/

Usage continues to indicate that the Russians are only using new production missiles, i.e. they have used everything from stock except their strategic (probably nuclear) reserves.



What's new is that they launched 6 hypersonic Kinzhal missiles.

Patroit may be able to engage these, nothing they currently have can.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

The Ukes will obviously need to avoid draining their own increasing resources to achieve that.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Via assorted video statements (that I can't link to for some reason),
Wagner says the Russian Army is getting the ammo, and the Russian Army says Wagner is getting the ammo.

So, did all the ammo just pop up on eBay, and some Russian General is now looking to pick up a superyacht going cheap?

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

No matter how much the Russians try to suppress it, the news of troops in Ukraine being reallocated to human wave attacks and being wiped out in a week is getting back to the troops in Russia.



One wonders whether open rebellion is getting close?

One also wonders how much fight will be in them when a bunch of Leopard 2s appears over the hill
FTFAGOS !

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

The Ukrainians are now training the US in how to drop grenades from drones



Doubtless the US Army will find some major military contractor to supply them for $80,000 dollars each instead of the $400 it cost the Ukrainians, but "It's still cheaper than a T-90™"


p.s. Dear Boeing, Grumman, etc. rights to the "It's still cheaper than a T-90™" marketing slogan can be purchased at extremely reasonable rates, PM me

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Speaking of US MIC


Looks like German delays in authorising Leopards are having consequences already. Rheinmetall will be doing their nut about Scholz.

Of course, if they think Scholz is being bribed by the Russians, they may wish to consider bribing the German Chancellor more next time.

[boing]

It seems we could be seeing things warming up on the Kinburn Peninsula, this may be a real push or it may simply be a ploy in an attempt to reduce the pressure on Bakhmut. As you can see from previous posts I have long favoured a move East from Kinburn as a useful move for the Ukrainians. Let's look at the possibilities.

Kinburn is a tough nut to crack as far as making the first substantial landing is concerned. The bad news is any movement on the peninsula must be on a narrow front directly into the Russian artillery but it seems that the Ukrainians have been softening up the Russian defenses by fire from the north bank of the Dniper and they have been quite successful in reducing Russian air defense capability. I think that with the Russian commitment to Bakhmut we can expect Russian defenses in Kinburn/South Eastern Kherson to be less strong than the Russians would like hence the construction of strong trench systems in both south Kherson and Crimea. Should a Ukrainian offensive take place from southwest Kherson towards Crimea I think the Russians are going to have to make a very tough decision between saving either Bakhmut or Crimea because I doubt if they can do both and because of the distance between the two they are going to have to make some rapid decisions..

Factors.
There are only two routes from Crimea itself in the Ukraine, let's call them the East and West routes. Both routes are very narrow. The West route is basically a road, the East route has a road and a railway line. Once Ukraine has these routes under long range artillery control and even Himars range if they can push close enough Crimea becomes an island. For a time the Kerch Bridge is unusable for repair and with new long range Ukrainian missiles it is likely to remain that way. No re-supply of weapons or manpower, no food and no cover. Sevastopol and the Crimean airfields are a write off and you may have noticed that Russian assets along the north coast of the Azov Sea have been taking some hits recently.

Now, I would not be in favour of becoming distracted by a rushed attack on Crimea but I think you could have a lot of fun using it to play mind games with the Russians. I reckon that if there is one place that Putin wants more than Bakhmut right now it is Crimea, Bakhmut is his attempt to give himself a political success but it is absolutely nothing compared with losing Crimea. Having a reasonable chance of gaining Crimea gives the Ukrainians the equivalent of four Kings in a poker game.

As you may have noticed an ammunition dump in Nova Kakhova was destroyed recently. Once you have a strong foothold on the coastline opposite Kherson city a drive along the southern banks of the Dniper with no enemy of your left flank might be quite pleasant.

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[Fox3WheresMyBanana]