Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

[tango15]

Ukrainian drones hit two oil refineries in Russia's Samara region

Samara is a long way inside Russia. That's quite a result, and will dampen the spirits of anyone who was celebrating Putin's 'election'.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Russian and proxy media isn't mentioning continuing attacks on Belgorod city, or the oil refineries.
It is claiming that the insugent presence in the border area is a continuing series of attacks, all of which are repelled.
The last election day is tomorrow. The media claims may well change on Monday.
I think it likely all of Russia knows that Belgorod is under continual attack, as the Russian bloggers do mention the incidents.

The two out of 3 Uke M-8 helos claimed destroyed by Russia have now been geolocated, so that's genuine.
Bloody stupid place to stop them, IMHO, with the consequences we see.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Kursk, Russia, appears to have at least a partial blackout tonight.
Looks like some Uke or insurgent drone(s) have hit a power station or switching station.

As expected, the Russians are charging into the border settlements the insurgents have moved into, and are shooting at anything that moves and half the things that don't.
They'll blame it all on the insurgents, of course, but I expect the public will know better.

[probes]

And a couple of tanks were sent to 'restore order' in a small village.
The residents are fleeing, phone calls intercepted by UKR and the general mood is said to be: everyone who can, the rich(er) that is, go to somewhere else.
Analysts say it's really interesting (if that's the word), as putin told at the beginning of his small special operation that ruz land will not be affected in any way. Now he has had to admit that they are 'killing UKR forces en masse' in his own Belgorod oblast.
Then, the UKR plan to target oil facilities is public and known, but putin has not been able to actually do anything to protect them. An estimated third of the production has been stopped reportedly. The last one (tweet below) does not seem to have any air defence at all (it's a smaller one, too). The bloke says: it's the seventh... and one more! F, where's the air defence? ... then just a couple of (gun?) shots.



and Domodedovo - lots of peope running, that one must have been noticed.

[probes]

Well

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

The insurgents are now confirmed in Gor'kovskii, Russia.
https://mstdn.social/@noelreports/112110705619473224
I have geolocated the video to the NE corner of the main block of the secondary school.
This is the same settlement where the two BMP-2s were shown destroyed earlier.
viewtopic.php?p=387361#p387361
There are obviously no Russian troops around - there's nothing tactical about the movement of the insurgents.

Last day of Presidential Elections...not one mention anywhere in Russian or proxy media of any negative story about the war, or indeed anything. Everything is wonderful!! Vote putin!!!

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Ukraine expects NOT to renew the transit agreement for Russian gas through Ukrainian pipelines, which expires soon.
They reckon they can survive without both the gas and the cash.
German now imports zero Russian gas.

(In Ukrainian - Closed Captions and Settings-Auto-translate-English does a very good job.)
The energy minister doesn't name them, but I think Hungary and Austria will be in a bit of bother. I don't know about the Balkan states.

So, if they do cancel the agreements, they then won't need to blow up the pipelines that run through Ukraine.
Not that, if the refinery campaign continues as it has begun, the Russians will have as much to export anyway!

The first part is about the failure of the Russians to cause any significant electrical blackouts in Ukraine this past winter. The minister puts it down to better air defence and better repair teams.

[probes]

Ach, interesting!

It has been noted before that the notoriously imprecise ruz bombs somehow never seem to hit the gas pipeline.
I did a quick search on which countries actually use it or depend on it, and this one seems to make sense:
The Final Countdown: Will Russia and Ukraine Renew Gas Transit Deal? (from 15.02.2024, Carnegie Endowment)
quote:
Austria and Italy will be the least impacted by an end to Russian gas supplies.
Austria will always have other options because multiple pipelines intersect on its territory.
Italy also has other alternatives (albeit more expensive ones), since it gets gas from both Algeria and Azerbaijan via pipelines, and through several LNG terminals on its territory.
It’s a little more complicated for Hungary, but it could obtain Russian gas via TurkStream.
Slovakia, on the other hand, has hardly any alternatives. It would need to organize a reverse flow from the Austrian hub, or receive gas through small German LNG terminals. Slovakia will also find itself furthest along the supply route, so its opportunities to procure gas will depend on whether Austria, Hungary, and the Czech Republic have enough for themselves.
Fico had a plan, but given his unfriendly attitude to EU and UKR...?
Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico has suggested that instead of OGTSU (Ukrainian gas pipeline operator) signing a transportation contract with Russia, European companies could sign them, meaning the latter would effectively purchase gas on the Russia-Ukraine border and then task Ukraine with transporting that gas.
---
The second problem for Gazprom is the threat of claims for financial damages from its European customers. Some of the company’s long-term contracts with EU countries are valid through 2040, and the inability to deliver that gas due to an issue with a transport company is the supplier’s problem. If Kyiv bans the transportation of Russian gas, that will be considered a force majeure, which might relieve Gazprom from its delivery obligations. But if the Ukrainian gas transit system operator simply shuts down the border metering station, declares the route closed, and stops accepting gas from the Russian side, it will be a different story.

OK, I got intriqued and found a really thorough one, or so it seems at least, on ruz oil and gas in general:
Russia’s Unsustainable Business Model: Going All In on Oil and Gas

[probes]

"Acts of disruption" during the so-called elections are also said to be unheard-of up to now:

CNN's Matthew Chance in Moscow amid voting in Russia's presidential election, which is expected to sweep President Vladimir Putin to a fifth term.

[probes]

Vintage Tu-141/143 in action (Forbes)

"Somewhere, somehow, someone seems to have found an additional batch of 1970s-vintage Tupolev Tu-141/143 drones—crude, hulking but nevertheless potentially effective vehicles that the Ukrainians last deployed a year ago, four decades after they initially retired from Soviet service.

Social-media users highlighted recent photos apparently depicting the wreckage of a Tu-143 in Russia’s Bryansk Oblast, just north of Ukraine. It seems the drone was part of Ukraine’s ongoing deep-strike campaign targeting Russian infrastructure—including oil facilities—in regions near Ukraine."

[Pinky the pilot]

Cannot view it probes, as it wants me to disable my Adblocker and/or sign in.

Re Putin's massive 'win'; Saw on the SBS TV news here in South Australia some brief interviews with voters here in Australia and one bloke, with a fairly broad Aussie accent say that ..."Putin is the saviour of the West.."

Another lifetime ago I worked with a few blokes who would have crawled on their hands and knees across 100 yards of broken glass to find out just what that bloke had been smoking to get his head that ripped!!!

[admin2]

Extract from Forbes for you:

"Some Tu-141s and Tu-143s were in storage in Ukraine when Russian troops first invaded the country back in 2014. Ukrainian technicians began pulling the aged drones from warehouses and reconditioning them."

Google Tu141 and 143

[probes]

DIY innovation :

[PHXPhlyer]

DIY innovation :

Might need to get one to operate through the sunroof to defend against road rage which seems to be on the increase around these parts.

PP

[probes]

UKR has confirmed they have at least 2 UH-60 Black Hawks.
Energomash in Belgorod (missile engines) was hit.
Analysts scratch their heads over why ruz has not made any real progress around Bakhmut, as the mass of troops is remarkable there. Ditto Krasnohorivka.
Reuters claims more than 10% of ruz oil processing volume is 'out', refineries targeted
AND, ruz is believed to buy satellite images from the US, the Atlantic reports:

Sometimes a coincidence is just a coincidence. But the suspicious cases have added up, and because many satellite-imagery companies offer a backlist of archived images, marked with dates and coordinates, it’s possible to browse tens of thousands of images taken of Ukraine and notice suggestive patterns. In the week before April 2, 2022, about a month after Russia’s initial invasion, images of a remote airfield outside Myrhorod, Ukraine, were requested from American companies at least nine times. Myrhorod is not a particularly interesting place, apart from that airfield. On April 2, missiles landed there. In the week that followed, someone asked for images of the airfield again.

[Pinky the pilot]

PHXPhlyer; Re your DIY innovation post; It's hardly a new invention. Something virtually identical was devised and used by some members of the Australian Army at Gallipoli in 1915.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Russian propaganda, both internally and through proxies, seems to be big on 'NATO Troops are in Ukraine' in the last 10 days or so.
The Russian insurgents are being referred to as volunteers or mercenaries in the Ukrainian armed forces.
I'm not sure why they are pushing this angle. It's been mentioned on and off over the last couple of years, but is definitely a key theme now.

[probes]

If ruz isn't that victorious against NATO, it looks better. But UKR, not even a nation...

PHXPhlyer; Re your DIY innovation post; It's hardly a new invention. Something virtually identical was devised and used by some members of the Australian Army at Gallipoli in 1915.

Well, sure - all new is forgotten old anyway.
As there are guns for shooting around corners, every dream will come true eventually?

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Russian authorities have announced the evacuation of up to 9,000 children from the border areas under attack from the Russian insurgents (official reason).
The Russian media and proxies are still maintaining that there aren't any insurgents there.

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/03/19/7447135/

The insurgents themselves have requested civilians to evacuate.

The children will be evacuated to the oblasts one back from the border, closer to Moscow.

[probes]

Drone attack to the Engels airfield (mil). Nothing on results yet.