Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

[Pontius Navigator]

I think the number of missiles in November was near 300. I think that is what we expected in one raid over 20-30 minutes in WW3.

Fortunately the Russians do not seem to have realised concentration of force leads to economy of effort. At this stage they lack the assets for such concentration.

Similarly, if the ground freezes solid and becomes ideal for a broad front armoured asssult they lack force and surprise.
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[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Fortunately the Russians do not seem to have realised...

we are very lucky.jpeg (49.03 KiB) Viewed 464 times

And with sanctions, the lack of assets will continue.
..and that's when the ground freezes, not if..which will be in about 2 weeks on a historical basis, but maybe next week in the north of Ukraine based on current weather.
In summary, putin is f-ed.

[PHXPhlyer]

U.S. intel chief says Russia is using up ammunition in Ukraine faster than it can replace it
Putin has been “surprised” at the lackluster performance of his military but his political objectives for the war have not changed, the intelligence director said

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/europe/us- ... -rcna59847

Russian forces in Ukraine are burning through ammunition faster than the country’s defense industry can replace it, U.S. National Intelligence Director Avril Haines said Saturday.

Russia is using up ammunition “quite quickly,” prompting Moscow to look to other countries for help, including North Korea, Haines told NBC News’ Andrea Mitchell at a panel at the Reagan Defense Forum in Simi Valley, California.

Asked how fast Russia was using up ammunition, Haines said: “I don’t think I can give you precise numbers in this forum. But quite quickly. I mean, it’s really pretty extraordinary.”

She added: “And our own sense is that they are not capable of indigenously producing what they are expending at this stage.

So that is going to be a challenge.”

The Pentagon said last month that Russia is firing off a staggering 20,000 artillery rounds a day, even as it has suffered a series of setbacks on the battlefield. Echoing previous statements from Biden administration officials, Haines said that Russia was using up precision munitions even faster than its conventional ammunition.

The Biden administration previously said Russia has turned to North Korea to secure more supplies of artillery ammunition. Haines said that the extent of North Korea’s assistance appeared limited but that it was something the intelligence community would continue to monitor closely.

“We’ve indicated we’ve seen some movement, but it’s not been a lot at this stage,” she said of North Korea’s role.

The looming shortage of ammunition was just one of a number of challenges facing Russia’s military, Haines said, citing problems with morale and logistics as well.

The intelligence chief said that the tempo of the war in Ukraine appeared to be slowing down with the onset of winter and that both militaries would be trying to reset and regroup for more fighting in the spring. But she said the intelligence community had a “fair amount of skepticism” that Russian forces would be sufficiently prepared for renewed clashes in March.

Russian President Vladimir Putin was “surprised” at his military’s disappointing performance after its invasion of Ukraine in February, according to Haines.

“I do think he is becoming more informed of the challenges that the military faces in Russia. But it’s still not clear to us that he has a full picture at this stage of just how challenged they are,” Haines said.

Putin has not changed his political objective to effectively control Ukraine, but it is unclear whether he would accept scaled back military ambitions, Haines said.

“I think our analysts would say he may be willing to do that on a temporary basis with the idea that he might then come back at this issue at a later time,” she said.

Although recent protests pose no serious challenge to Putin’s grip on power, criticism of the conduct of the war inside Russia has been on the rise from political figures, and that could influence his decision making on the conflict, according to Haines.

She also said Chinese President Xi Jinping’s recent warnings against the use of nuclear weapons would be important for Putin.

“I think it is fair to say, from our perspective, that Xi’s voice on this is going to be, obviously, among the most compelling to Putin on this issue,” Haines said.

China and Tik-Tok

As for recent protests in China over Covid-19 quarantine rules, Haines said the public displays of anger did not pose a risk to overall stability or the survival of the regime. But she said, “How it develops will be important for Xi’s standing.”

The widespread protests contradicted the Chinese government’s narrative about how the country functions more smoothly than more chaotic democracies, and the Covid-19 restrictions had negatively affected the Chinese economy, Haines said.

Despite the challenges in having to balance containing the virus, addressing public anger over quarantine protocols and ensuring economic growth, Xi has been “unwilling to take a better vaccine from the west,” she said.

The U.S. intelligence director, the first woman to hold the job, also said there were good reasons to be concerned about Chinese-owned Tik-Tok.

Asked whether parents should be worried about their children using the popular video platform, Haines said: “I think you should be.”

China is developing frameworks for collecting foreign data and had the capacity to “turn that around and use it to target audiences for information campaigns or for other things, but also to have it for the future so that they can use it for a variety of means that they’re interested in,” Haines said.

FBI Director Christopher Wray recently warned that he had serious concerns about Tik-Tok, saying it raised the possibility that the Chinese government could use it to control data collection on millions of users or control the recommendation algorithm, which could be used for influence operations.

Haines said that more than two months of women-led protests in Iran were “remarkable” but that the Iranian regime did not see the unrest as posing an imminent threat to staying in power. However, the deteriorating economy and the protests over time could fuel unrest and instability, she said.

The Iranian Revolutionary Guard and Iran’s intelligence services have adopted an “extraordinarily aggressive” stance targeting critics both at home and abroad, according to Haines.

Haines’s office is overseeing an assessment of the potential risk to national security from the disclosure of documents taken from former President Donald Trump’s home in Mar-a-Lago. But she and other intelligence officials have declined to comment on the case, which is a Justice Department investigation.

NBC News’ Mitchell asked Haines what would happen if an intelligence officer removed classified documents and then resisted handing them back.

After a long pause, Haines laughed and said: “Please don’t do this!”

PP

[boing]

There have been many attempts to guess both the number of bullets fired in various combats and the results thereof. One thing that seems to be statistically quite proven is that the number of bullets fired to kill one person has increased dramatically over time. When you see the amount of ammunition fired by modern machine guns and the technique of holding a fully-automatic rifle above the head and emptying magazines without even sighting on the enemy this is not surprising. To examine two recent wars the number of bullets fired per kill has been calculated as one kill per 10,000 bullets (with the estimate of error being between 5,000 and 15,000) in WW2 with the estimates for the American side in Afghanistan being closer to 100,000 bullets per kill.

So, if we say that 90,000 Russians have been killed that may have required, say, 50,000 bullets times 90,000 deaths, 4,500,000,000 bullets on the Ukrainian side. Of course, many kills are by artillery so it would be fair to reduce that figure considerably but we also need to acknowledge that many more bullets seem to be fired based on "spray and pray" in later wars so I would hate to have to produce an accurate calculation.

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[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

I do not think the war tempo is slowing down because of winter, but because of rasputitsa.
When the mud freezes up solid, the Ukes will be on the move. The Russian mobilized troops are badly equipped and supplied. It's the ideal time to make a breakthrough.
The Voronezh-Kharkov offensive from Jan-Mar 1943 is a good study. Same region north of Luhansk. Similar troops - well equipped (relatively) attackers (Soviets) against weaker, less well-equipped defenders. Many Hungarian and Italian units were in the German army - they would be similar in performance to the mobiks in the current Russian army. Casualties were much higher for the weaker defensive troops.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

RT has a rather rambling article about the war, which would like its readers to believe that Russia will eventually win the Donbass, and not much will happen anywhere else except infrastructure attacks by the Russians

https://www.rt.com/russia/567610-russia ... -and-west/

It may so happen that the border of Kherson Region will be fixed for a long time, years or even decades, along the Dnieper River.

[Boac]

Some reported concerning developments in the Russia/Belarus relationship.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

You mean the joint troop stuff?

I'm not bothered. Lukashenko isn't going to order Belarussian troops into Ukraine. If he was, he'd have done it a lot earlier.
He will do absolutely anything short of that.
putin's getting desperate for anything that might hinder the upcoming Ukrainian assaults.
But I think there will be a revolt in Belarus if Lukashenko tries it.
This lot do too

https://ecfr.eu/article/putins-last-all ... n-ukraine/
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/15/worl ... ussia.html

[Boac]

I agree, and I also think the Ukranians would be well-placed to oppose any entry from Belarus, but I feel Lukashenko might be getting about nervous about 'accidents' befalling some of his seniors.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

The ultimate question for putin is whether he can get any more out of a replacement for Lukashenko, and I think the answer is no.
But Lukashenko also knows that putin has people killed just out of spite.

Nowhere to run to, and nowhere to hide; who'd be a dictator, eh?

[Pontius Navigator]

Boing, I remember reading bullet stats many years ago. I think despite the slaughter in WW1 it was something like 250k.

Regarding shell consumption and production, the expenditure mentioned by PHXP is 600,000 per month. I read some weeks back that production was being increased to 500,000 per YEAR.

[Pontius Navigator]

Thinking of Western consumption and future stock replenishment, they will need some hard thinking. It would be wasteful to build up stocks for several months at intensive rates when there is no operational expenditure. This would lead to excessive waste at end of life.
A better solution is to have production facilities that can be ramped up to match intensive expenditure. Stocks could then be held to cover the start up period.
A mothballed facility of course would be expensive and subject to obsolescence. Better if it ran at low production rates with the capacity for ramping up as required.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

The basic problems with underused equipment is that a corporation would want payments from government for that, or must charge through the nose if increased production is called upon.
Or you need a government facility.
If it's a government facility, then pretty soon someone in the Ministry will have snagged a promotion by finding reasons to flog it off to the private sector.
Then someone else in the Ministry will get a promotion for justifying why they don't need a strategic reserve and consequent payments.

One look at the Rough gas storage facility shows us the above.

And either way, as both government and private business are currently discovering, including in Russia, you still have to find the workforce to make the bullets.
And if you can't find the workforce for hospitals and police stations and the Post Office and transport and.........

Excessive waste?
How much is Freedom?
Because both government and private business will massively undervalue it.

How much would Ukraine have saved by keeping its nuclear deterrent?

[Pontius Navigator]

Fox, sadly true.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

The Ukes have noted quite a drop-off in the use of the Iranian drones by Russia - apparently they can't cope with frost

[boing]

You jest but this from an hydraulic system manufacturer.

Low-Temperature Operating Conditions

low ambient temperatures
When most people think of the effects of temperature on hydraulics, their immediate thought is heat; however, cold temperatures can have a devastating effect on hydraulic systems as well. Such sub-optimal operating temperatures can result from well-below-freezing ambient temperatures or the operation of a hydraulic system at high-altitude, low-atmospheric conditions. Low-temperature effects can be especially problematic for mobile hydraulic systems found on outdoor equipment during the winter months.

Effects of Low Temperatures on Hydraulic Systems
Elastomeric materials like rubber are commonly found on hydraulic systems of all sizes, and rubber (as well as other types of elastomers) is sensitive to cold temperatures and can behave as a brittle material when temperatures drop sufficiently low. When hydraulic equipment is exposed to cold temperatures, rubber components such as seals, fittings, mounts, and hoses can be seriously damaged during operation. It is important to check the condition of exterior rubber components for cracks or tears before starting the system and always have replacement parts on hand for rubber components just in case something is damaged.
Cold temperatures will affect the viscosity of the fluids in your hydraulic system, which means not just the hydraulic fluid but lubricants. Low temperatures will increase the viscosity of hydraulic fluid and oil, which means that it will behave as a thicker fluid. If the viscosity increases too much, the fluid will not behave normally; for example, on startup, oil with a higher than normal viscosity may not distribute evenly around critical parts fast enough to prevent damage. Keep in mind that fluids can actually congeal to the point where they will no longer flow. This will result in starved pumps, cavitation, and lack of lubrication, in turn leading to expensive damage to your hydraulic equipment and the components it is comprised of.

Since the Iranian drones are built to low specs. this could be a real problem.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

I jest not.
I'm laughing because my engineering degree specialism is fluid mechanics, and I taught the hydraulics on the OCU.
But you didn't know that.
I can also tell you why the electrics designed by a bunch of camelsh@ggers won't work either.

[OFSO]

Interesting, because twice in the last week the tailgate on my Ford has stopped short of full opening in 6° temperatures. (And I've hit my head on it which is how I know). No problem once the sun's been on the car.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Nothing as effective for making a point as a bash on the head.
My flying instructors were most particular about this, and applied it at every opportunity.
This is why RAF pilots really wear bonedomes .

[boing]

I had an African national student, a really nice cheerful individual who could even handle the English sense of humour. After we had completed the exercises I would thump him on his bonedome and tell him to take us home. It got to the stage where if I did not thump him on the bonedome he thought he had done a bad ride. Great kid, after the revolution he became a UN refugee administrator handling the evacuees from the place next door.

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