Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

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Re: Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

#3801 Post by Fox3WheresMyBanana » Sat Mar 11, 2023 4:13 pm

The Russians are now literally shipping their troops to the front like cattle to the slaughterhouse


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Re: Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

#3802 Post by Boac » Sat Mar 11, 2023 4:35 pm

I really hope the UKR has a cunning plan up its sleeve as the attrition rate is getting concerning.

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Re: Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

#3803 Post by Fox3WheresMyBanana » Sat Mar 11, 2023 6:21 pm

Do you know what the attrition rate is?
I have been unable to find anything reliable on it.
I agree it's a key factor.

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Re: Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

#3804 Post by Fox3WheresMyBanana » Sat Mar 11, 2023 7:57 pm

The benefits of a fast response time, Int to Explosion


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Re: Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

#3805 Post by Fox3WheresMyBanana » Sun Mar 12, 2023 2:36 pm

Since the topic of this thread is how the war affects us, rather than directly how it's going, this is pertinent



It is presumably on putin's mind.

I think some useful questions at this stage of the war, where the Russian offensives are basically getting nowhere but before the Ukrainians can launch their own counteroffensive(s), are:

1) Will putin withdraw Russian forces before any Ukrainian counterattack?
2) Will the Russians withdraw without putin's OK? (possibilities include a general mutiny at troop level, mutiny in the high command, or putin getting bumped off)

3) Will a Ukrainian counterattack gain sufficient success to force putin to withdraw?
4) Will the Russian federation collapse if putin doesn't withdraw?
5) Will it collapse if he does?
(I think the scenarios are sufficiently different for two questions rather than one)

6) If it does collapse, will it collapse along existing federation boundaries?
7) If so, will these boundaries persist (cf. Czechoslovakia later splitting)?
8) If neither, how will it collapse?
9) Will collapse trigger further collapses elsewhere?
(I think the last question is very important for both China and the US, but not so much Europe.)

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Re: Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

#3806 Post by tango15 » Sun Mar 12, 2023 4:28 pm

Well here's a bit of speculation from me, based on my travels (mostly) around the western (ie west of the Urals) and southern areas of Russia.
If there is a dissolution of Russia, one of the first to go would be Chechnya. In many ways, it is almost a separate country now. The fact that it is 95% Muslim puts it at odds immediately with Moscow, and the current truce there is an uneasy one.

From Wiki: Since 2007, Chechnya has been governed by Ramzan Kadyrov. Kadyrov's rule has been characterized by high-level corruption, a poor human rights record, widespread use of torture, and a growing cult of personality. Allegations of anti-gay purges in Chechnya were initially reported on 1 April 2017.
(This is very much along the lines of other former Soviet Union members, such as Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, to name but two), who seem to survive very well, without interference from Moscow. They have useful quantities of oil and this would be sufficient to sustain their economy.

The little-known state of Kalmikia, in which almost 50% of the population are Buddhist, could be another candidate. Its annual oil production is about 1,270,000 barrels and it has a strong agricultural sector.

Another candidate is Krasnodar Krai (region), which includes the resort town of Sochi. I spent a bit of time there when Boris Yeltsin was in charge, and it was very clear that there was no love lost between the region and the capital. The region is wealthy in its own right, with a diverse economy. It's about the same size as Chechia (formerly the Czech republic and not to be confused with Chechnya ) :)

The underlying problem with these (and other regions) within Russia is that they receive very little support from Moscow, either financially or politically. To a large degree, they are already autonomous, so it would not be a huge step to declare themselves independent if the regime in Moscow collapsed.

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Re: Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

#3807 Post by Fox3WheresMyBanana » Tue Mar 14, 2023 11:10 am

Georgia
Follow the link to see the bottom picture in full..

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Re: Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

#3808 Post by Fox3WheresMyBanana » Tue Mar 14, 2023 11:19 am

Bashkortostan (just north of Kazakhstan)
There could be trouble ahead.......Inshallah

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Re: Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

#3809 Post by Fox3WheresMyBanana » Tue Mar 14, 2023 11:48 am

The Ukrainians have worked out how to attach RPG warheads to drones - game changer.

Indirect RPGs, launched from cover and able to attack the AFV from the best angle, even if it's in cover, 24/7

Any books on tanks may now be placed straight into 900 - History.


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Re: Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

#3810 Post by Pontius Navigator » Tue Mar 14, 2023 4:40 pm

That appears like an Airfix model, all parts removed from the sprue and scattered in a heap.

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Re: Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

#3811 Post by Fox3WheresMyBanana » Tue Mar 14, 2023 5:26 pm

Normally caused by the ammo cooking off in the centre of the vehicle.
As best as I can tell from videos, most Russian soldiers now ride on the top rather than in the deathtrap the troop compartment has become; a change from earlier in the war.

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Re: Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

#3812 Post by Fox3WheresMyBanana » Tue Mar 14, 2023 5:28 pm



Perfect excuse for the US to ship ATACMS to Ukraine ?!

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Re: Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

#3813 Post by PHXPhlyer » Tue Mar 14, 2023 5:58 pm

Headline from Pravda:
US MQ-9 Reaper drone carelessly backs into one of our SU-27s.
:ymdevil:
PP

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Re: Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

#3814 Post by Fox3WheresMyBanana » Tue Mar 14, 2023 6:21 pm

RT has reported the event, but stated there has been no statement from the Russian MoD or the Kremlin as yet.

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Re: Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

#3815 Post by boing » Tue Mar 14, 2023 7:20 pm

I'm wondering how a fighter could hit a drone by impact and still RTB. A bit more than a birdstrike.

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Re: Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

#3816 Post by Fox3WheresMyBanana » Tue Mar 14, 2023 7:31 pm

They may have tried the old Doodlebug trick of putting the fighter's wingtip under the drone's and trying to flip it, overloading its gyros. Get this a bit wrong and the wingtip could easily clip the pusher prop, which is what is being reported happened.
Back in the Cold War, we used to plan on doing this if we had a cruise missile to intercept with no armament left.
The Russian Defense Ministry said.

"As a result of sharp maneuvering around 09:30 Moscow time [06:30 GMT], unmanned aerial vehicle MQ-9 went into an uncontrolled flight with a loss of altitude and collided with the water surface. The Russian fighters did not use airborne weapons, did not come into contact with the unmanned aerial vehicle and returned safely to their home airfield," the ministry said.
The ministry clarified that on the morning of March 14, the airspace control of the Russian Aerospace Forces had recorded the flight of US unmanned aerial vehicle MQ-9 over the Black Sea in the region of the Crimean peninsula in the direction of the Russian state border.

The flight of the drone "was carried out with transponders turned off, violating the boundaries of the area of the temporary regime for the use of airspace, established for the purpose of conducting a special military operation, communicated to all users of international airspace and published in accordance with international standards," the defense ministry noted.
Russian fighters from the air defense forces on duty were scrambled in order to identify the intruder, the ministry added.

Meanwhile, Pentagon spokesperson Pat Ryder on Tuesday declined to disclose whether the US MQ-9 Reaper drone that crashed over the Black Sea after the intercept with Russian aircraft was armed.

"I'm not going to get into the specific profile of this particular aircraft. As you know the MQ-9 does have the ability to be armed," Ryder said during a press briefing.
Ryder also added, that US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin has not talked to Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu after the incident.
https://sputniknews.com/20230314/russia ... 97416.html

All of that will be known to be lies by the Americans (except the transponders off). Whether they choose to provide proof is another question.
The Russians have no rights to restrict international airspace, war or not, so the "violation" is legal rubbish.

Effectively, this is the Russians escalating the war. The description of the encounter leaves no doubt the Russians were deliberately trying to cause the Reaper to crash.
The BS story is simply a way of saying "And we will do it again, and lie about it again. What are you going to do about it?"
So, why now? They are trying to provoke the US for a reason.
The military reason would be to try to deny monitoring of the Russian lines and rear areas for the expected upcoming Ukrainian offensive.
The action will not help any Dovish voices in the White House, who will have been maintaining that, if the US doesn't escalate, Russia won't either.
The Russians must be hoping the US will over-react with some kind of direct response.

Supply of ATACMS would be a good response, whether announced or not.
I would expect the drones to get a fighter escort from now on.
We may also see transponders coming on.

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Re: Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

#3817 Post by G-CPTN » Tue Mar 14, 2023 7:38 pm


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Re: Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

#3818 Post by Fox3WheresMyBanana » Tue Mar 14, 2023 7:43 pm

The only military aircraft I can see on FlightRadar is a P-8 out of Sigonella, which is staying over the Romanian mainland.
Unsurprisingly, this is currently the most-tracked aircraft in the World ;)))

I note from the BBC link that the Russian Ambassador to the USA has been summoned.

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Re: Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

#3819 Post by Fox3WheresMyBanana » Tue Mar 14, 2023 7:51 pm

Difficult to connect the flight incident with anything on the battlefront in the last few days.
Russians have made another significant push on several fronts today, with the only achievements being losing a bunch more tanks and mobiks than usual. Tank losses are up quite a bit, according to Ukrainian claims.

And this happened

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Re: Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

#3820 Post by Fox3WheresMyBanana » Tue Mar 14, 2023 8:08 pm

BTR-50s.
Apart from dragging T-34s off of plinths and out of museums, this is the bottom of the Russian storage barrel.
The APC version was withdrawn in the mid-1960s. These command versions are based on that chassis.


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