Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Saky air base , near Novofedorivka in Crimea, has just been hit by the Ukes. It's 200km behind the front line.
There are several videos, and I have been able to triangulate two pretty exactly.
https://www.google.com/maps/place/45%C2 ... 33.5835414
Looks to me like that's the bomb dump.

Update: Ukes haven't claimed a strike yet, and the Russians say it was an accident at the bomb dump.
However, further video shows two separate explosions. I'm trying to locate the second


Russian sources apparently admit there were multiple explosions. The video above seems to have been filed from Ivanivka, to the east of the air base. Those explosions look close to simultaneous to me, and I am not sure either of them is the one shown in most of the videos. The two explosions may be of the main flight line, somewhere between 300 and 800m NE of the bomb dump.
I am going to speculate, based on the main explosion having no fireball, and the other two having fireballs, that the first explosion was the bomb dump, and the other two were aircraft exploding on the two main flight line areas.
Whaddayareckon?

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Update 2: Russian editor-in-chief of RT news has tweeted that it was sabotage, not an airstrike, according to people at the air base. This would explain the two near-simultaneous explosions on the flight line. Uke SF or Russians would be the next question.

[PHXPhlyer]

Explosions rock area of Russian airbase in Crimea killing at least one

https://www.cnn.com/2022/08/09/europe/c ... index.html

One person has died and multiple others were injured in
a series of large explosions that rocked the area of a Russian military airbase in the annexed Ukrainian peninsula of Crimea on Tuesday, local authorities have said.

Footage from the scene showed large plumes of smoke billowing into the air. The Russian defense ministry said the blasts had been caused by detonated aviation ammunition, Russian state media RIA Novosti reported.

“Around 3:20 p.m., several aviation munitions detonated on the territory of the airfield ‘Saki’ near the settlement of Novofedorivka,” the ministry said in the statement, according to RIA Novosti.

Earlier on Tuesday Kоnstantin Skorupsky, Minister of Health of the Republic of Crimea, said five people were injured following the explosions. It is not clear if the person who died was among those previously reported as injured.

Ambulance crews and an air ambulance were sent to the site of the explosions, according to the health ministry.

Russia annexed Crimea from Ukraine in 2014 and considers Crimea part of its territory. Kyiv and its allies do not recognize the annexation and consider the peninsula Ukrainian territory under Russian occupation.

Oleg Kryuchkov, adviser to the head of the Crimean region, confirmed several explosions had occurred near the village of Novofedorivka.

In a statement posted on his Telegram channel later in the afternoon, Kryuchkov said around 30 people living nearby were evacuated from their homes following the explosions, and that an air cordon had been set up around the perimeter of the airfield.

Separately, Sergey Aksenov, the head of the so-called Republic of Crimea, said “I went to the scene in the village of Novofedorivka, Saki district. The circumstances are being clarified.”

He said there was “a dispersion of fragments” at the scene and that emergency crews were working the site.

“Measures were taken to set up a cordon perimeter in a 5-kilometer zone: fences, traffic police crews and foot patrols in order to prevent injuries to local residents,” he added.

A satellite image from Maxar technologies shows grain being loaded into the hull of the Matros Pozynich in Crimea
Satellite images appear to show Russian ships loading up with Ukrainian grain in Crimea
There was no word from the Ukrainian side about any possible attacks in the area. Ukraine is not known to have struck the territory of Crimea since the Russian invasion began.

The explosions came just hours after the Ukrainian military carried out what appeared to have been their deepest strike yet into Russian occupied regions in southern Ukraine near the Crimean peninsula.

Serhii Khlan, adviser to the head of Kherson Civil Military Administration, said on Ukrainian television Tuesday, “This morning there was a good news, there was a very powerful detonation in Henichesk region.”

Henichesk is in the southern Kherson region and about 200 kilometers (125 miles) from the nearest Ukrainian front line.

Khlan suggested that the target had been on the railway between Henichesk and Melitopol.

“We are still waiting for the official confirmation of our Armed Forces, from the General Staff, but it’s a very pleasant news. The detonation was heard during 1.5-2 hours on this railway station, which connects Crimea and Melitopol,” he said.

Creating a land corridor connecting Crimea to Russia through occupied areas in southern and eastern Ukraine was one of the goals of Russia’s invasion.

Moscow said in June that it had accomplished that goal and that the Russian military had “restored” 1,200 kilometers (745 miles) of train tracks and opened roads to allow “full-fledged traffic” between Russia, eastern Ukraine’s Donbas region and Crimea, the peninsula annexed by Russian forces from Ukraine in 2014. The supply of water through the North Crimean Canal – a lifeline for Crimea – had also resumed, Russian defense minister, Sergei Shoigu said.

PP

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

This is the other rail line out of Crimea. The other one was hit last week at Kalanchak.
They have probably hit the marshaling yards at Novooleksiivka, about 7miles NW of Henichesk.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Saky air base - Russians say no aircraft lost. Uke rumours say many may have been destroyed.
Video of huge tailbacks at the Kerch Strait bridge, lots of Russians heading back to Russia.

Lots of real estate in Crimea just gone on the market, as in minutes ago.




..and the RT Editor has now tweeted that Ukraine has "crossed a red line" by launching the attack on Crimea, which according to the Russian Defence Ministry was just an accident.

[boing]

I suspect that what we have seen, accidentally or otherwise, is a finely calibrated supply of US weapons to Ukraine. Finely calibrated in an attempt to not trigger Russia to critical anger over any particular item.

First we had the Javelin. Who could complain about that since it was only a tank buster with limited range? Then we saw the long range artillery which was barely a match for the Russian equipment. Then we saw the HIMARS with limited range but that began to be a serious threat. Now we find the Ukraine has HARM missiles in use. I would not be surprised to find the Ukrainians have had long-range ATACMS missiles in inventory for a while but no permission to use them.

Russia has got itself in a PR bind. If NK supplies 100,000 troops who can criticise NATO involvement? Foreign troops are foreign troops. If Russia gets irresponsible over the nuclear power plant NATO can say it is getting involved to save the World.

When Russia is truly tottering the ATACMS missiles will be loosed on territory to which the Ukraine has some legitimate claim such as the Eastern provinces and Crimea. I do not think we will see ATACMS used on Russian territory or even the Kerch Bridge.


.

[prospector]

https://www.rt.com/russia/560533-zelens ... aign=Email

the US preparing to throw Zelensky under the bus?
With Kiev’s defenses unraveling, the narrative surrounding the country’s leader has suddenly changed in Western media
By Glenn Diesen, Professor at the University of South-Eastern Norway and an editor at the Russia in Global Affairs journal. Follow him on Twitter @glenndiesen.

Glenn Diesen: As the tide turns in Ukraine, is the US preparing to throw Zelensky under the bus?
FILE: Ukrainian comedian and presidential candidate Volodymyr Zelenskyy performs during a show in Brovary, near Kiev, Ukraine on March 29, 2019. © AP Photo/Emilio Morenatti, File
In a display of support, the US has protected Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky from any criticism ever since Russia attacked Ukraine in February. As it becomes evident the war has been lost, someone will have to take the fall, and it appears that Washington is preparing to throw the leader in Kiev to the wolves.

The beginning of the end
The US proxy war against Russia was beneficial for Washington as long as there was a stalemate that was draining Moscow’s military, economic and human resources, even threatening to demote Russia from the rank of a great power. For example, Congressman Dan Crenshaw justified his support for the process by arguing that “investing in the destruction of our adversary’s military without losing a single American troop strikes me as a good idea.”

[G-CPTN]

For HIMARS missile systems (with 'only' half a dozen charges) what system do they use to replenish the charges? It isn't something that we see . . .

It would seem to be tedious to have to resupply after only six discharges (possibly simultaneously).

MLRS seem to carry pods with dozens of rockets.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

The latest systems have 6 reloads in a box. The transporter leaves the reload boxes on the ground and disappears back for more. The launcher has built in winch(es) and can reload direct from the ground.

[G-CPTN]

Thanks Fox.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

You're very welcome!

The Torygraph is reporting that Uke Senior Management have cryptically announced that the Crimea strike was carried out with a "device exclusively of Ukrainian manufacture".
This would mean either:
the Vilkha, a development of the Russian BM-30 Smerch MRLS, but with longer range rockets than previously announced, and GPS capability.
Or, the R-360 Neptun anti-ship missile (as sunk the Moskva), reconfigured for land attack with GPS added (it has the range).
Reports are now that there were at least 12 explosions. The Vilkha has 12 rockets per launcher. The Neptun launcher carries 4 rockets, but the Torygraph reports the explosions took place over 30 minutes, which would just about fit with 2 reloads to the previously revealed unique launcher the Ukes have.
I would guess the Neptun, reprogrammed and with GPS added, would be more likely. The Neptun is exclusively Ukrainian and so easier for them to reprogram.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/ ... se-crimea/
That is, if they did use missiles. No one has reported incoming missiles yet. Sabotage with explosive charges could also fit the description.

Update: Just in, what is claimed to be video of the aftermath of the Saky air base raid.
Looks like what's left of a Fencer, which is one of the aircraft based there.


I think, from the blast wall behind, that the location is here
https://www.google.com/maps/@45.0895356 ... a=!3m1!1e3

The Sun angle is correct for a mid-afternoon strike, and this pan usually has Fencers on it, based on the Google maps sat image, plus another sat image I saw a few hours ago claiming to have been taken yesterday.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Last update from me tonight. Reports that there were 12+ explosions within the space of a minute, then one huge one 30 minutes later. I speculate this was the ammo dump cooking off.
Still no reports of incoming missiles or rockets.
Officially, the Ukes aren't claiming it.
Crimea now supposedly under Martial Law as of midnight local.
All this means sabotage now seems more likely.

[PHXPhlyer]

Russia dangles freedom to prisoners if they fight in Ukraine. Many are taking the deadly gamble.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/08/09/europe/r ... index.html\\

Promises of freedom and riches are made to convicts in cramped jail cells. Frantic phone calls ensue between relatives and inmates weighing the offer. Then prisoners vanish, leaving their loved ones to sift through reports of the wounded arriving in hospitals.

This scene is playing out in the convict communities across Russia. With a regular army stretched thin after nearly six months of a disastrously executed and bloody invasion of Ukraine, there’s increasing evidence that the Kremlin is making ugly choices in its ugly war and recruiting Russia’s prisoners to fight.

Over a month-long investigation, CNN has spoken to inmates caught up in Russia’s newest recruitment scheme, along with their relatives and friends. Activists believe hundreds have been approached in dozens of prisons across Russia – from murderers to drug offenders. Some have even been taken from the prison where one high-profile American jailed in Russia, Paul Whelan, is held. His brother David said in a statement in July he had heard ten volunteers had left IK17 in Mordovia for the frontlines in Ukraine

Ukrainian troop move by tanks on a road of the eastern Ukrainian region of Donbas on June 21, 2022, as Ukraine says Russian shelling has caused "catastrophic destruction" in the eastern industrial city of Lysychansk, which lies just across a river from Severodonetsk where Russian and Ukrainian troops have been locked in battle for weeks. - Regional governor Sergiy Gaiday says that non-stop shelling of Lysychansk on June 20 destroyed 10 residential blocks and a police station, killing at least one person. (Photo by Anatolii Stepanov / AFP) (Photo by ANATOLII STEPANOV/AFP via Getty Images)
Two exhausted armies are battling for eastern Ukraine. Can either of them strike a decisive blow?
Dozens of chat messages between relatives, reviewed by CNN, detail the tempting rewards offered to fight in Ukraine, where the risk of death is high. The latest Western assessments suggest up to 75,000 Russian troops have been killed or injured since the invasion began (a claim the Kremlin has denied).

One prisoner spoke to CNN from his cramped jail cell, a cat crawling across bunk beds, and a fan clamped on top of an ageing television tried to cool the air between heavily barred windows. Imprisoned for multiple years for drugs offenses, he spoke on condition of anonymity using a contraband smartphone – quite common in Russia’s prison system – to outline the conditions on offer.


“They will accept murderers, but not rapists, pedophiles, extremists, or terrorists”, he said. “Amnesty or a pardon in six months is on offer. Somebody talks about 100,000 rubles a month, another 200,000. Everything is different.” He said the offer was made when unidentified men, believed to be part of a private military contractor’s firm, came to the prison in the first half of July, and that acceptance into the program would lead to two weeks of training in the Rostov region in southern Russia. While he had two years’ service in the military, he said the recruiters did not seem to insist on military experience.

“In my case, if it’s real, then I’m all for it,” the prisoner said. “It can make a real difference for me: be imprisoned for nearly a decade, or get out in six months if you’re lucky. But that’s if you’re lucky. I just want to go home to the children as soon as possible. If this option is possible, then why not?”

The prisoner said 50 inmates had already been selected for recruitment and placed into quarantine in the prison, but he had heard that 400 applied. Rights activists working in the Russian prison system said since the start of July they had been flooded with reports from across Russia from anxious relatives, concerned of the fate of their inmates.

“In the last three weeks [in July], there is a very big wave of this project to recruit thousands of Russian prisoners and send them to the war,” said Vladimir Osechkin, head of Gulagu.net, a prisoner advocacy group.

Osechkin said some were promised a pay-out to their families of five million rubles ($82,000) if they died, but all the financial rewards might never be honored. “There is no guarantee, there’s no real contract. It is illegal”, he said.

“It can make a real difference for me: be imprisoned for nearly a decade, or get out in six months if you’re lucky. But that’s if you’re lucky.”

A prisoner who spoke to CNN on condition of anonymity
Some of the prisoners and their family members appeared keen for the recruitment to go ahead, Osechkin said, echoing the responses of some inmate families seen by CNN.

Osechkin speculated the prisoners were used effectively as bait, to attract the fire of Ukrainian positions and enable the regular Russian military to strike accurately back. “They go first, and when the Ukrainian army sees them, and they strike. Then Russian soldiers see where the Ukrainians are, and bomb the place”.

CNN reached out to the Russian Defense Ministry and penitentiary service (FSIN) for comment on allegations that prisoners are being recruited to fight in Ukraine. Neither responded.

Vitalina and Stanislav say they held back their anger while in Russia.
When Russia is the only way out of a war zone, Ukrainian refugees must hide their hatred
While recruitment is in its early days, the first reports have emerged among family members of injured prisoners being hospitalized in the Russian-backed separatist area of Luhansk.

CNN has viewed chat messages exchanged between relatives of inmates already apparently sent to the frontline. One wife details how she contacted her husband, who lay injured in one Luhansk hospital. The wife said only three prisoners from her husband’s unit of ten were still alive. CNN is aware of the identity of the injured prisoner, but has been unable to confirm his hospitalisation, as separatist medical facilities are veiled in secrecy.

Other messages between relatives also detailed the quiet desperation of prisoners, caught up in a Russian justice system where 99% of cases brought to trial result in conviction, and corruption weighs heavy on an over-burdened penal system. This month, one prisoner messaged his brother on WhatsApp about his decision to go.

Moscow’s manpower options have ebbed over five-plus months of clumsy and gruelling invasion. Russian President Vladimir Putin initially stated no conscripts had been deployed in the war, before his ministry of defense admitted they had withdrawn some from the frontlines after their deployment in apparent error. The Kremlin has said there will be no general mobilization in Russia, perhaps fearing the policy would prove unpopular, especially if losses spread across the population did not significantly alter the battlefield dynamic.

A destroyed barrack at a prison in Olenivka.
White House says Russia planning to falsify evidence to frame Ukrainian forces for prison attack
Prison recruitment is, activists and prisoners said, under the auspices of the Wagner private military contractor, which is not subject to the Russian military’s ban on employing convicts. The prisoners have not shared any copies of their contracts with their relatives or activists, so the precise terms or employer remain unclear. Wagner – which works globally and is run by Yevgeny Prigozhin, a man known as Putin’s chef – is Russia’s most ubiquitous military contractor. Prigozhin denies ties to Wagner.

The lack of clarity, coupled with the silence of their loved ones, only adds to relative’s anxieties. Oksana, the half-sister of a Russian prisoner who had been offered deployment, said his mother had initially been keen to receive the salary from her son’s service, but, since he vanished from their messaging apps, was beside herself with worry.

“These are the least protected part of the population. Putin said no conscripts would be sent, but they were. With convicts, it will be very hard to reveal they have been sent.”

Oksana, the half-sister of a prisoner who had been offered deployment
“We know he was in Rostov Oblast,” Oksana said, adding he had claimed he was in another prison’s factory. “He rang her on a new WhatsApp number on 10th July and asked her to send a copy of her passport so she would get his wages,” she said. This meant it was less likely he was in prison, she said, as an inmate’s wages from prison labor are usually paid into their own account.

“I am in contact with many relatives and they all have the same scenario: Send passport details. No contact,” she said. “These are the least protected part of the population. Putin said no conscripts would be sent, but they were. With convicts, it will be very hard to reveal they have been sent.” Oksana’s name has been changed due to security concerns.

In late July, the mother received a message from another new number, familiarly written in her son’s broken Russian. It insisted he was healthy, and OK, but gave no details as to his whereabouts. “There is some time left but it is going quickly”, he wrote. “When I can I will call you.”

The mother was later rang by a person introducing themselves as an “accountant,” who pledged to bring her son’s salary in cash to her a week later.

PP

[PHXPhlyer]

Russians have begun training on Iranian drones, US believes

https://www.cnn.com/2022/08/09/politics ... index.html

The US believes Russian officials have begun training on drones in Iran over the last several weeks, the latest sign that Russia intends to purchase the systems as the war in Ukraine continues.

“During the last several weeks, Russian officials conducted training in Iran as part of the agreement for UAV transfers from Iran to Russia,” a US official told CNN. The official said the intelligence about the training has recently been declassified.

CNN has reached out to the Russian embassy in Washington for comment. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said last month that Russia had “no comments on the matter” when asked by reporters about the drones.

CNN first reported last month that a Russian delegation had visited an airfield in central Iran at least twice since June to examine weapons-capable drones, according to national security adviser Jake Sullivan and satellite imagery obtained exclusively by CNN.

Iran began showcasing the Shahed-191 and Shahed-129 drones, also known as UAVs or Unmanned Aerial Vehicles, to Russia at Kashan Airfield south of Tehran in June, US officials told CNN. Both types of drones are capable of carrying precision-guided missiles. Sullivan said in July that the US believes Iran intends to sell Russia hundreds of the drones that Russia can use in its war in Ukraine.

The Ukrainian military has primarily been deploying Turkish-built Bayraktar UAVs to destroy Russian command posts, tanks and surface-to-air missile systems, while the Russians have been using homemade Orlan-10 drones for reconnaissance and electronic warfare.

But the Russians have been struggling to replenish their supply, leading them to turn to Iran for the equipment, the US believes. US officials have also argued that the growing relationship between Iran and Russia exemplifies why the US needs to maintain its presence and influence in the Middle East.

Ukraine, meanwhile, has pleaded with the US to provide more powerful armed drones like the Gray Eagle, but the US has been reluctant to provide them for fear that Russia could view it as overly escalatory.

PP

[PHXPhlyer]

9 Russian warplanes were destroyed in Crimea blasts, Ukraine says
Russia denied any aircraft were damaged in Tuesday’s explosions — or that any attack took place.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/russ ... -rcna42376

Nine Russian jets were destroyed in explosions at an air base in Crimea, Ukraine’s air force said Wednesday.

It comes amid speculation the blasts were the result of a Ukrainian attack that would represent a significant escalation in the war.

Russia denied any aircraft were damaged in Tuesday’s explosions — or that any attack took place.

Ukrainian officials have stopped short of publicly claiming responsibility for the explosions, while poking fun at Russia’s explanation that munitions at the Saki air base caught fire and blew up and underscoring the importance of the peninsula that Moscow annexed eight years ago.

In his nightly video address several hours after the blasts, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy vowed to retake the peninsula, saying “this Russian war against Ukraine and against all of free Europe began with Crimea and must end with Crimea — its liberation”.

On Wednesday, Russian authorities sought to downplay the explosions, saying all hotels and beaches were unaffected on the peninsula, which is a popular tourist destination for many Russians.

The fireballs, which killed one person and wounded 13, sent tourists fleeing in panic as plumes of smoke towered over the nearby coastline.

They smashed windows and caused other damage in some apartment buildings.

Russian jets have used Saki to strike areas in Ukraine’s south on short notice, and Ukrainian social networks were abuzz with speculation that Ukrainian-fired long-range missiles hit the base.

Officials in Moscow have long warned Ukraine that any attack on Crimea would trigger massive retaliation, including strikes on “decision-making centres” in Kyiv.

A Ukrainian presidential adviser, Oleksiy Arestovych, who is more outspoken than other officials, cryptically said on Tuesday the blasts were caused either by a Ukrainian-made long-range weapon or were the work of guerrillas operating in Crimea.

The base on the Black Sea peninsula that dangles off southern Ukraine is at least 125 miles away from the closest Ukrainian position — out of the range of the missiles supplied by the U.S. for use in the High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems or HIMARS systems.

The Ukrainian military has successfully used those missiles, with a range of 50 miles, to target ammunition and fuel depots, strategic bridges and other key targets in Russia-occupied territories.

HIMARS could also fire longer-range rockets, with a range of up to about 185 miles, that Ukraine has asked for.

But U.S. authorities have refrained from providing them thus far, fearing it could provoke Russia and widen the conflict.

But the explosions in Saki raised speculation on social media that Ukraine might have finally got the weapons.

Ukrainian military analyst Oleh Zhdanov said the Ukrainian forces could have struck the Russian air base with a Ukrainian Neptune anti-ship missile that has a range of about 125 miles and could have been adapted for use against ground targets and fired from Ukrainian positions near Mykolaiv northwest of Crimea.

The Ukrainian military might also have used Western-supplied Harpoon anti-ship missiles that can also be used against ground targets and have a range of about 185 miles, he said.

“(Officially) Kyiv has kept mum about it, but unofficially the military acknowledges that it was a Ukrainian strike,” Zhdanov said.

If Ukrainian forces were, in fact, responsible for the blasts, it would be the first known major attack on a Russian military site in Crimea, which the Kremlin annexed in 2014.

A smaller explosion last month at the headquarters of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet in the Crimean port of Sevastopol was blamed on Ukrainian saboteurs using a makeshift drone.

During the war, Russia has reported numerous fires and explosions at munitions storage sites on its territory near the Ukrainian border, blaming some of them on Ukrainian strikes.

Ukrainian authorities have mostly remained silent about the incidents.

Meanwhile, Russian shelling hit areas across Ukraine on Tuesday night into Wednesday, including the central region of Dnipropetrovsk, where 13 people were killed and 11 others were wounded, according to the region’s governor Valentyn Reznichenko.

Reznichenko said the Russian forces fired at the city of Marganets and a nearby village.

Dozens of residential buildings, two schools and several administrative buildings were damaged by the shelling.

“It was a terrible night,” Reznichenko said.

“It’s very hard to take bodies from under debris. We are facing a cruel enemy who engage in daily terror against our cities and villages.”

The Russian forces also continued shelling the nearby city of Nikopol across the Dnieper River from the Russia-occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, Europe’s largest.

Ukraine and Russia have accused each other of shelling the power station, stoking international fears of a catastrophe.

PP

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

The Lithuanian who CBS showed short excerpts of an interview with to claim Ukraine was losing 70% of military supplies to corruption has been found and fully interviewed.
“No, I never meant that some aid was stolen or disappeared. These are words taken out of context. I did not say that and I did not mean that. I said that the efficiency of the support mechanism at that point, in the second month of the war [in April] was maybe 30-40% of what I would like to see.”

“I can give you an example. I know that in many cases aid was not supplied to people directly on the frontline but to other units. There were distribution issues, problems within the system of distribution, problems with logistics. Of course, everybody needs it but who should receive first?”

“That’s my assessment from a point sitting in a car three months ago. I don’t have full access to the full situation but know some things from my work with the military.”
The rest is here. It's not all good, but it's nowhere near as bad as the CBS article purports to show.
https://euromaidanpress.com/2022/08/09/ ... -debunked/

CBS has an agenda
RT has an agenda
Neither of them give a flying duck about the truth.

[boing]

What do you say? A Russian airfield in total peacetime mode is blasted by several missiles that do not exist with a very high level of accuracy and quite clearly powerful warheads.

This list of possible missiles that meet the criteria is really quite short. It has been suggested that the missiles used could be modified anti-ship missiles but it would seem to be a quite complicated problem to replace the radar seeker head of an anti-ship missile with a GPS device, perhaps not. I would have thought the problem would be matching the flight control response of the missile with the GPS guidance instructions but if you are working with the manufacturer of the original missile this would help.

There are several Russian airfields within the apparent radius of this attack.

.

[Pontius Navigator]

Russia denied any aircraft were damaged in Tuesday’s explosions —

Absolutely. I have no reason to believe any aircraft were damaged.

[Pontius Navigator]

OK boing, your starter for 10. "How far apart should aircraft loaded with nuclear be?"

[PHXPhlyer]

Does Ukraine Have A Stash Of Domestically Developed Ballistic Missiles?
A possible high-profile long-range attack on a Russian airbase has led many to wonder if Ukraine has a pocket arsenal of ballistic missiles.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/d ... c-missiles

Much about what caused a series of explosions earlier today that tore through Russia's Saki Airbase, situated near the village of Novofedorivka on the occupied Crimean Peninsula, remains murky. Russia had claimed what happened was an accident, and that the resulting damage was minimal and caused no casualties, but provided no hard evidence to substantiate this and ordered an evacuation of surrounding areas. Some Ukrainian officials claimed that the incident was a strike, with a subset of them further saying it was carried out using unspecified domestically-developed stand-off weapons. If it was indeed a standoff strike from outside Crimea, it would have had to involve a weapon that Ukraine doesn't officially possess, but they certainly were close to in recent years.

You can read more about what we know so far about the attack on Saki Airbase in The War Zone's initial reporting here.

Victor Andrusiv, who resigned from his position as adviser to the country's Interior Minister in July for unclear reasons, specifically claimed that Ukraine had missiles with ranges between 200 and 300 kilometers (approximately 124 to 186 miles) already in service in a post on the Telegram social media network. Andrusiv had previously called publicly for long-range strikes on the Kerch Strait Bridge that links Russia to occupied Crimea.



It remains to be seen whether or not the Ukrainian claims, to include the employment of some kind of weapon the country has developed itself, are ultimately confirmed. Ukrainian forces would need a ground-based weapon system with the kind of range that Andrusiv mentioned to hit Saki from areas they control in the southeastern end of the country.


Still, the blasts at the base could still have been caused by strikes carried out by manned aircraft, drones of various complexities, short-range missiles clandestinely launched from within Crimea or off its shores, sabotage, or a simple accident. Regardless, evidence is certainly mounting that Russia's initial claims as to how limited the destruction from the blasts was were a lie.



Whatever happened at Saki Airbase, especially in light of Andrusiv's Telegram post, has raised a key question: where are Ukraine's domestically-developed short-range ballistic missiles?

Hard details can be challenging to pin down, but what is undeniable is that Ukrainian rocket and missile firm Pivdenne, also known as the Yuzhnoye Design Office, has been working on some level on a short-range ballistic missile designed to be fired from a road-mobile transport-erector-launcher (TEL) since at least 2003. The roots of this project reportedly trace back to the end of the Cold War and Ukraine's independence from the Soviet Union. That decoupling spurred a desire to craft a domestically developed successor to the Tochka-U short-range ballistic missile that would be roughly equivalent to Russia's Iskander-M. Both sides of the current conflict in Ukraine have employed stocks of Soviet-era Tochkas.


The missile, and the complete weapon system that it is a part of, have been referred to over the years as Sapsan, Grom, Grim, Grim-2, and Hrim-2. Sapsan appears to be the name applied to a larger effort that this weapon, and other components of the complete system, including a 10-wheeled TEL that can be loaded with two containerized missiles at a time, were developed under. The Grom/Grim/Grim-2/Hrim-2 nomenclature appears to refer to versions of the missiles and/or systems, of which there appear to be domestic and export-specific variations. The different spellings largely seem to be a product of how Russian and Ukrainian have been transliterated into the Roman alphabet over the years, and they all translate to Thunder/Thunder-2 in English.

The initial Grom/Grim design at least had an expected range of around 280 kilometers (174 miles), would carry a warhead weighing 480 kilograms (around 1,060 pounds), was 6.4 meters long (just under 21 feet), and nearly a meter (3.28 feet) in diameter at its widest, according to a website with a 2015 copyright date for Ukroboronexport, which appears to have been supplanted since then by Ukrainian state arms broker Ukroboronprom. That same webpage said that the missile, as designed, would have an inertial guidance system assisted by a satellite navigation link, along with some kind of unspecified terminal homing capability.

It's not clear if any of those specifications apply to the subsequent Grim-2/Hrim-2 design. The Ukroboronexport webpage says that Grom would be launched from an eight-wheeled TEL capable of carrying just one missile at a time, which clearly did not carry over to subsequent iterations of the missile.

Reports have indicated that the range of the subsequent Grim-2/Hrim-2 variant had the same maximum range of 280 kilometers (174 miles), but this may actually only apply to an export version. Some sources suggest that the full range of the variant for the Ukrainian armed forces would be able to strike targets out to distances between 450 and 500 kilometers (some 280 to 310 miles). Saudi Arabia, which was reportedly directly involved in the development of the weapon on some level for at least a time, was expected to be the first customer for the export version. The Saudis do not appear to have taken any deliveries of these missiles to date, and have reportedly initiated work on their own domestic ballistic missile enterprise with assistance from China in recent years.

It's interesting to note that the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR), a voluntary arms control mechanism that Ukraine is party to, places significant prohibitions on the transfer of missiles with ranges of 300 kilometers (186 miles) or more, and/or can carry payloads of 500 kilograms (approximately 1,100 pounds) or more. This would help explain the reason for the existence of an export-specific version with a reduced range. Russia also offers an MTCR-compliant reduced-range export variant of the Iskander-M, the Iskander-E.


The current state of the Grim-2/Hrim-2's development is unclear. Reports say that prototypes, which may have been earlier Grom/Grim versions, were test launched in 2016. The two-round, 10-wheeled TEL, or at least a mockup thereof, emerged the following year. In 2018, a TEL, or a mockup, with Ukrainian Armed Forces markings was publicly shown during that year's Independence Day parade in Kyiv, as seen in the picture below.

In 2019, it was expected that the Ukrainian military would reach an initial operational capability with the Grim-2/Hrim-2 weapon by 2022. Last year, Ukrainian officials announced that those plans had been scaled back to the acquisition of a single experimental battery with two TELs and two command-and-control nodes.

In addition, the Yuzhnoye Design Office has said in the past that it has also been developing a ground-launched cruise missile called Korshun, which is broadly akin to the Soviet-era Kh-55-series and that could be launched by a variant of the same TEL used to fire Grim-2/Hrim-2. The available details about any progress in the development of this weapon, which was reportedly also being eyed for air-launched and naval applications, are even more limited. Another 2015-copyrighted page from Ukroboronexport's website says this cruise missile was expected to have a maximum range of 280 kilometers (174 miles), have a satellite-assisted inertial navigation system guidance package, and be able to be fitted with multiple warhead types, including ones loaded with multiple submunitions. Again, it's not clear whether those specifications are in any way current.



PP