Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

[Boac]

While Fox has a well-earned 'session', this appears to be fairly reliable, in which case, Crimea next?

[boing]

I would expect the R's to pack Crimea from the south, use it as a base since access is fairly restricted and it has airfields and then move to Kherson, Zap and Donetsk from there. Perhaps they are completely worn out and will just fill Crimea with (temporarily) warm bodies.

The NPP can't be very long in Russian hands.

.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

The tide has turned.

Ukrainian woman gets her washing machine back!

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

How was this all reported in Russia last night?
It wasn't.



It only builds up for an even bigger shock when Russia is completely kicked out of Ukraine.

[Boac]

A little bit more on the image in viewtopic.php?f=64&t=6954&p=346437#p346416 - if accurate it suggests another attempt at encirclement

[Woody]

You know when your war is not going well when this happens

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... untry.html

[Boac]

Russia seems to be admitting that it doesn't actually know where the 'new' borders of the annexed regions are - yes, those are the borders they are going to defend with unimaginable force. Well, to be fair, they are 'moving', it appears.

[EA01]

What a shame it is to see those damned 'Golden Arches' in Ukraine...I mean its not even food!

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Difficult to be at all clear about what is going on. Even the crowd at the Institute for the Study of War, who have been doing extensive daily summaries, avoided talking about the status of the front line yesterday.
I am going to try to stick to stuff there is video evidence of.

On the Kharkiv front, Ukes have rolled into Shyikivka, east of Borova.



I have geolocated this to here: 49.34217462256035, 37.74783150583394

It is reported that the Russians abandoned Borova without a fight yesterday evening. Makes sense, as otherwise the above video would mean they are surrounded.

My understanding from several reports is that Russia is trying to redefine the boundaries of the annexed territories in order to say that the Ukes aren't in 'Russia'. They will have to move fast!
Putin's bluff has been called, and now he's trying to pretend he never made it.

[Woody]

What a shame it is to see those damned 'Golden Arches' in Ukraine...I mean its not even food!

No, but the free Wi-Fi is great

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

On the Kherson front, Mykhailivka (on the Dnipro, 47.311405893248676, 33.9565584815845) and Myroliubivka (Google maps spelling, also Myrolybivka, 47.40705492052164, 33.64912204995188) are definitely occupied by Ukraine.
The bulk of the reporting from both Russian and Uke sources is that the front line is at Dudchany.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

It would appear that the Ukrainian forces have broken through the front lines in multiple places on both the Kharkiv and Kherson fronts. Their tactics appear to be to move across open country and/or dirt roads to cut main roads/railways that can supply Russian-occupied settlements, then see if the Russians will run to avoid being encircled. This appears to be what is happening. The Russians either do not appear to have any second line or deeper prepared positions to move back to, or have been overrun so fast that they could not establish themselves in them.The countryside and dirt roads are a bit muddy, but still perfectly usable at the moment. Russian comms are awful, and without orders all but the best Russian troops appear to be getting the hell out of Dodge at the first sign of serious trouble. What the Ukes did in the Kupyansk push was to advance recce forces until resistance was encountered, then call up a platoon of their tanks traveling close behind recce groups to go blow a few holes in the Russians, at which point they ran. I expect the Ukes will repeat these tactics.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Borova confirmed abandoned by the Russians, people driving around putting up and waving Ukrainian flags.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Putin's Moscow rally, TV version vs phone footage at same time
All the crowd cheering was added in the TV edit room of the Ministry of Truth

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

What appears to be happening on the Kherson front



The problem the Russian troops have is that they have no counter to the envelopment tactics of the Ukrainians.

They can't hit them with artillery as they no longer have the ammo, or aircraft because the Uke SAM defences are now too strong (another Russian Su25 claimed today, two attack helos yesterday).
They can't patrol properly as they don't have the fuel or the night vision gear.
They can't co-ordinate as they don't have the comms equipment.

If they keep the ammo/fuel in big dumps, it gets hit by HIMARS or drone-corrected conventional arty.
If they break it up into smaller dumps, they don't have the trucks to move it again, meaning the Ukes capture everything when the Russians retreat/move (AND are promptly hit with the ammo they just left).
If they move it up to the individual units, like guns or AFVs, the Ukes hit the ammo/fuel stacks with drone bomblets and thus blow up the unit next to it.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Kherson front
Havrylivka (47.220754668297126, 33.87884179178251), 9m NE of Dudchany, confirmed liberated.
Ukes reportedly occupy the north of Dudchany, Russians the south part, on the other side of an estuary.
There's a causeway between them which contains a small reservoir.
Ukes are likely going round the far end of the reservoir, which is only about 5km.

Looks like Russia is attempting to resupply their forces on the west bank of the Dnipro by running lots of cars and SUVs over the bridges, which are too damaged to take the weight of trucks. Desperate stuff.
The Ukes have stepped up bombardment of both sides of both main crossing points, plus the Antonovsky bridge itself.

[llondel]

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/10/ ... est-a78953

An elderly Russian scientist accused of passing state secrets to China as a guest university lecturer died Sunday under house arrest, his lawyers said.

Valery Mitko, the former president of the Arctic Academy of Sciences in St. Petersburg, was charged with high treason in early 2020 and banned from leaving his home.

Russian authorities accused Mitko of sharing information on submarine detection technology with China’s secret services.

Probably the sort of know-how to locate and do stuff to underwater pipelines.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

The reason for all the new Russian conscripts wandering around in tracksuits is because it appears one and a half million Russian uniforms have gone walkies.
I wonder where they could have gone? says Fox3, before putting on his genuine Russian military Ushanka hat ($30 from Russia, via the big river) to head out for some more log cutting.

Just doing my bit for the war effort

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Kherson
The Ukes are advancing along the Dnipro on a broad front at least 15 miles wide, occupying the villages up to Dudchany. (all now confirmed with images/video)
The Russians have apparently blown the causeway there, but this won't delay the Ukes more than about 5 minutes as they go round the other end of the reservoir.
According to a Russian source the Ukes have 3 battalions attacking Dudchany, 1 tank and 2 motorised infantry

Kharkiv
Ukes also advancing NE towards Svatovo on a broad front at least 20 miles wide, occupying the village up to Borova (all confirmed with images/video)
This puts them no more than 15 miles from Svatovo.
Also indicated on many maps to be advancing SE from Kupyansk towards Svatovo, also about 15 miles distant (no images as yet)
One report of Ukes already in Svatovo, no evidence, but from a Ukrainian.
There are no reports of large scale fighting around Kreminna, Lysychansk, or Severodonetsk. It would seem the Ukes are following the plan I outlined a while back, and
are sweeping all the way round via Svatove to cut off their supplies from the north, then ultimately the east also.
Makes no sense to get involved in urban warfare against desperate Russians, especially because it will be their own cities they will be destroying also.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Kharkiv
Probably the best guess as to exactly what's going on. The Russians in Kreminna and Svatove will be far to weak to attempt flank attacks on a spearhead headed for Starobilsk.
Starobilsk is the regional Russian HQ, and the final rail link to the north and Russia.
Indeed, this thrust would likely force the troops in Svatove to retreat without a fight to avoid being isolated.
Might also force the Kreminna garrison to retreat to Severodonetsk.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FeJouRNXgAA ... =4096x4096