Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Several Russian sources confirming the Russian intention in Kherson oblast is to form a defensive line Snihurivka-Mylove.

This is all flat prairie, without even any significant rivers or streams. They will be toast in no time.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Over two miles.
That's how wide the Dnipro is above Nova Khakovka.
It's 500m wide between NK and Kherson.

Wonder how many Russian soldiers can swim?
I think we'll find out!

On the Kharkiv front, there is today no reported Ukrainian shelling of Russian-occupied cities - Svatove, Kreminna, Severodonetsk, etc.
They took the major ammo depots and HQs out a week ago.
I think they are going to go around them and cut all remaining supply lines.
It's possible they are headed direct for Starobilsk, as per the strategy I described a while back.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Attempts by Ukrainian forces to break through Russia’s defenses in Kherson Region have been thwarted, the deputy head of the local administration, Kirill Stremousov, has said.
In a Telegram post on Monday, Stremousov stated that “everything is under control in the Nikolayev direction,” despite Kiev’s efforts to retake the region.

Comedy gold!!

https://www.rt.com/russia/563979-kiev-k ... -repelled/

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Photos of two different trench-digging military vehicles in Svatove today. The Rooskies are obviously digging in.
Even more reason to go right by and just cut their supply lines.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

HIMARS never sleeps.
At least three sets of strikes (by my count) on the Antonovsky bridge today. The Nova Kakhova bridge and the Dar'ivka bridges have also been hit multiple times, together with adjacent waiting/storage areas for all three.

The Russians are increasingly desperate to assist their troops north and west of the Dnipro, but I don't think they are getting anything like what they need with this going on.

I expect the Ukes will be at the Gates of Kherson very soon.

Part Deux, 5 minutes later...

Multiple sources reporting Snihurivka has been liberated, and that the Russians are retreating back from north of Kherson towards the city area, just as they did in the NE earlier in the day.

And with that, a good night!

Unless you're Russian.

[Pinky the pilot]

Fox3; Has there been any information if the Russkies are abandoning much materiel/munitions/arms etc when they retreat?

[PHXPhlyer]

Fox3; Has there been any information if the Russkies are abandoning much materiel/munitions/arms etc when they retreat?

Saw an interview with a Uke officer showing off abandoned weaponry and ammo.
He indicated that the ammo (Arty shells) would be returned to the Russian troops.

PP

[Pinky the pilot]

the ammo (Arty shells) would be returned to the Russian troops.

But of course! But via the barrel of the Howitzer/Gun/whatever, naturally.

Almost wish I was over thataway as I'd love to pick up an AK74 for my collection...

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Yes, about the ammo.
I addressed that a couple of days ago; for your convenience...

If they keep the ammo/fuel in big dumps, it gets hit by HIMARS or drone-corrected conventional arty.
If they break it up into smaller dumps, they don't have the trucks to move it again, meaning the Ukes capture everything when the Russians retreat/move (AND are promptly hit with the ammo they just left).
If they move it up to the individual units, like guns or AFVs, the Ukes hit the ammo/fuel stacks with drone bomblets and thus blow up the unit next to it.

See also this tweet from 40 minutes ago.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Getting really smart now..The Ukes hit the Kherson Russian officers' brothel in the middle of Kherson at 5 past 3 this morning

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Very good thread on why the Russians are losing in Kherson, basically the Russians haven't adapted to drone, GPS and observational satellite intelligence.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

A key element in the Ukrainian success is not just the technology, but the decision-making process.
This is partly due to their self-developed smartphone app for dishing out arty frags.
In essence, the time from detecting a potential target, deciding to hit it, deciding who will hit it, and hitting it, is very short indeed.
They are well inside the OODA loop of the Russians.

Still waiting for confirmation of the Russian abandonment of Snihurivka, but it seems highly likely. Obviously, the russian commander has decided (correctly, after Izyum and Lyman) that getting isolated is the worst thing, so the Russians will withdraw to a perimeter around Kherson. It reduces gaps in their defences, increases the forces per mile, and shortens supply lines (such as they are).

However, it also puts their key supply nodes - the bridges and ferries across the Dnipro, in range of everything the Ukes have. The Ukes don't need to assault the city, and I doubt they will.They can just hit the supply nodes, and pick off the Russian strongpoints one by one.
And if I were the Ukes, I'd be setting up mobile phone towers and internet aerials connected to the Uke telecoms network right up near the front lines - every Ukrainian citizen in Kherson becomes an intel source (which is probably how they knew to hit the brothel - I am guessing they hit the place just after the last prostitute left, and the night staff would coincidentally have all been on a cigarette break....200 yards away)

Weird, isn't it? Good mobile phone service being a key element in warfare!

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Preparatory strikes by the Ukrainians in the Zaporozhian region appear to be continuing (7th paragraph). Note especially the hitting of SAMs in Tokmak, which I described a while ago as probably the key city if the Ukes do attack here.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Two minutes of what it's like on the Kherson front line

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Here's another Russian supply problem.
All their stuff is still handloaded/unloaded.
If a truck breaks down, they can't just drop the pallet and have another truck pick it up (like western armies), because there is no pallet!
So, all its load is left for the Ukes during a rapid retreat, and since the Ukes have the same weapon systems it can be fired straight back at the Russians within the day!
..and the Russian trucks are now very unreliable.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Dzhankoi, main Russian transport and logistics hub at the NE end of Crimea, being hit again.
Further attacks on the Antonovsky bridge reported today.
Looks like the Ukes are going all out to disrupt the Russian logistics at every point.
If the Russians, as seems likely, have been living hand-to-mouth for the last few weeks, then the abandonment of stores as they retreat coupled with reduced supply from the rear for 3-7 days could cripple them completely.

Meanwhile, back on the Kharkiv front, further gains of settlements east of the Oskil river are being announced. It is notable that the videos and photos, where it is possible to tell, seem to be from 2-3 days ago. If the rate of advance has continued, then the Ukes are likely already across the North-South Route 66 that runs through Svatove, probably both north and south of it. There are still no reports of attacks on any of the Russian-held cities in this area; so I continue to suggest that the Ukes are going around them. I seems unlikely that the Russians have either the forces or the co-ordination to attack these probing thrusts in the flank. They appear to be digging in around the cities, and waiting, but will thus inevitably get their supply routes cut. The ground commanders are choosing the options that lose the war but keep themselves alive.

Awaiting info on just how many Russians have become PoWs on both fronts.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

If I am right about Zaporozhia being the next place to be attacked, then this is what the Ukes are looking to achieve first, Russia sending troops from that front elsewhere.
It's what they did with the Kharkiv attack.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Snihurivka: Updated reports are that the Russians have moved their HQ out of the town, but troops are still holding it.
This happened at Izyum also.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Dead giveaway that the Russians have lost this war - their latest move of annexation isn't feared or troubling - there's a comedy theme running to counter it involving the Czech Republic annexing Kaliningrad

Kaliningrad annexation.jpeg (70.47 KiB) Viewed 221 times

kaliningrad biden.jpeg (57.28 KiB) Viewed 221 times

kaliningrad pope blessing.jpeg (47.09 KiB) Viewed 221 times

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Snihurivka Update 2:





And, spookily enough, Kherson actually is 35 miles back from Snihurivka!!!