Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

[probes]

ruz long-range radar station Nebo-U in Brjansk oblast hit.

[tango15]

Tomsk is a major oil-producing region and also the site of a large nuclear power plant. in my days of visiting the Soviet Union, we were not allowed to go to Tomsk (amongst other places), because it was a 'closed city.' If the flooding has reached the city, there will be a lot of problems. It would be interesting to know what the locals in these flooded areas (genuinely) think of Putin now. Siberia to secede from Russia one day...?

[Boac]

Is it just 'lack of maintenance' causing all these dam breaches or summat else?

[probes]

Very warm spring (extraordinary), lots of rain and lack of finances spent for maintenance + the usual hope of somehow someone else getting into the trouble.
Meltwater is nothing unusual, it's just that much of it. And, if nothing has happened for the previous 80+ years, it might not need any extra effort this time?
Well, it would have.
AS far as I understand, it's happening on several rivers, as reported in Newsweek (and Tomsk isn't on the Ural river either).

Meanwhile, more than 1,200 miles further east, an embankment dam was washed away in the Siberian city of Tomsk causing water levels to rise by nearly a meter (3 feet), with video on social media showing the raging waters.
People in parts of the Urals city of Kurgan have been told to evacuate their homes as the Tobol River swelled with water from melted snow, rising to over 20 feet. Flooding is expected to peak there on Monday, Reuters reported with Kurgan regional governor Vadim Shumkov saying that almost a "sea" of water is approaching.

In addition, a state of emergency was introduced in advance in the Tyumen region, where the water level in the Tobol and Ishim rivers could reach record highs.

But, at least they are not being shot at while trying to evacuate people.
As it was after the Kakhovka catastrophe on the UKR side. ruz just did nothing to help people on their side, not much even for their own troops. Busy bombing the opposie bank rescue effort.

edited: Reuters says it's the Ob-Irtysh river sysem , the world's seventh largest.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

The same problems exist with dams, especially earthen dams, worldwide.
I met a just-retired US dams inspector a few years ago, and the summary of a long chat was "Don't go near any dams".
Choose at least one or more of any of the following (likelihood):
Dam was not designed properly (rare)
Dam is old and now experiencing different conditions to design (slightly less rare)
Dam was built with incorrect infill (uncommon) - dam construction company may use infill from another project area they have, saving money, instead of the correct stuff
Dam was not built to correct height (uncommon) - specification may have been made cheaper by pretending the 50/100 year risk level was lower than reality - happened in Japan; Fukushima
Dam is owned by a private company that has gone bust, and is not therefore maintained - happens a fair bit in the US
Dam has not been maintained or inspected properly (not uncommon) - maintenance company bribes the inspector
Dam has been subjected to unforecast forces (most common problem) - earthen dams often have causeway roads along the top, and heavier trucks drive over them than should.
This is time-critical. During the Spring Rasputitsa (now), weight limits are often lowered as the dam earth is substantially weaker due to frost melt.
One big truck (typical under the normal weight limit but way over the Spring restricted limit) can wreak subsurface havoc that only shows up in a high water situation. I had the road guys fixing a few potholes right outside my driveway just yesterday, caused by this very problem.
I had some big timber lorries parked there a month or so ago, then rains hit record flood levels two weeks ago, and the road's sunk five inches with two big potholes.
My last house needed 8 concrete mixer trucks for the small foundation, as it was poured during the weight limit period, and each truck could only be a quarter full.
Guess how much money the concrete company can save if it sends two full trucks.

[tango15]

I gather that there was unusually heavy snowfall over the Urals during the winter, and this of course is now melting, and it has to go somewhere. Much of rural Russia still operates on the old planning system, so if it wasn't in the plan then there is no provision for it, with either money or resources, so I imagine it will just be a waiting game until the waters recede. I doubt if many of the properties affected will be insured either - Russians tend to see insurance as an unnecessary expense.

[probes]

More specifics on the radar in Brjansk (that was hit) - 55Zh6U NEBO-U, range of up to 700 km.

[probes]

Russia's S-300 / S-400 plant caught fire in Moscow

(btw - any idea on the reliability of the source, anybody?)

[tango15]

I would consider GDC to be a good source, even though they spell defence wrong

I don't know where in Moscow this plant is. It used to build large lorries (the sort that carry ICBMS, seen in Red Square on May Day), and I'm not sure whether it still does, or whether it's been turned over to missile production. If so, it seems odd that they would have such a plant in the environs of Moscow. Normally, the design bureaux are in the city, nd the Moscow base would have some limited production facilities, but the manufacturing sites for weapons are invariably hundreds of miles away., so I'm a little confused by the story.

[probes]

Dunno. The fire was mentioned in other sources as well, "A fire broke out at Moscow's Avangard Machine Building Plant, the sole supplier of missiles for the S-400 system, on April 16, Russian Telegram channel Astra claimed."
Hoping Fox will find out more about the Dzhankoy situation - some sources claim massive destruction. Also, the UKR drone RAM-X is suspected, again hopig Fox will clarify the what and why and how.

The ruz 2nd generation turtle-tank was successful in its first trip to deliver troops - meaning, got back to ruz lines intact. Forbes, Russia’s Turtle Tanks Are Evolving. First, Metal Shells. Now, Radio Jammers.


Frontline humour: as the AI-drones are more and more efficient, the next transport has to be horseback - surely AI is not trained to recognise them?

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Russian milblogger Rybar claims that Ukraine hit the Dzhankoy airbase with 12 (!) ATACMS missiles, 'likely launched from Kherson' in two waves, one of seven and one of five. He reports damage to equipment at the airbase as well as damage to buildings.

https://mstdn.social/@noelreports/112285496701528942

The point of view of the video probes posted has been roughly identified.
I have narrowed it down to the first apartment block in Nesterova Street, here
https://www.google.com/maps/place/39,+D ... ?entry=ttu
The edge of the next block can be seen on the left edge of the video.
This blocks most of what I would expect to be the targets, which are further to the left/north.

Using ATACMS makes sense. The bomblet warheads are ideal for hitting aircraft in revetments or in the open.
With an effective diameter of 677 feet for each warhead, this should enable 4 helos total in 2 adjacent revetments to be hit by each missile.
12 missiles is also my estimate of what it would take to hit all the revetments plus the open parking.
The satellite view on Google maps shows 43 helos of assorted types on the airfield.
Allowing for losses, etc, this would be a brigade of four squadrons.
12 missiles would cover all the areas shown as having helos, with maybe one missile spare.
I would imagine the Ukes had a satellite photo from that day, and used the seven missiles in the first wave to hit the maximum number of helos based on that intel.
The second wave would follow some kind of immediate Battle Damage Assessment.
That BDA could come from IR satellite, drone, or humint.
The second wave would then hit any areas not taken out in the first wave (e.g. due to warhead inaccuracy or fuse failures), plus other targets
These other targets would include the fuel farm (S end of airfield), ammo dumps (NW and SE corners of airfield), and the maintenance hangars (W centre), probably in that order of priority.

If the Ukes got everything to go to plan, they could have taken out all the helos, the fuel farm and maybe one ammo dump.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Dzhankoy Update
First photo of the damage
https://mstdn.social/@noelreports/112286401326565297

Appears to be an S-300/400 SAM battery

Difficult for me to be sure, but this looks more like S-400 to me, three launchers and a radar vehicle (note white mast at the back centre).
With some enhancement software, the Ukes will be able to tell which.

A SAM battery being hit would explain the trails seen at the end of the video

Other sources seem to indicate 3 Russian AF squadrons plus FSB helos, which fits with my guess earlier.

Further reports indicate the the airfield "was ablaze for hours".
The road immediately on the north side of the airfield, adjacent to some of the revetments, was closed by authorities (probably for fire service access).

A second bit of blurred video seems to show what looks like aircraft decoy flares going off from a fire, so it seems at least one helo was hit.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Dzhankoy Update 2
NASA IR satellite showing multiple fire zones on the airfield
https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/ma ... .70,14.00z

Excellent analysis in the Kyiv Post
https://www.kyivpost.com/analysis/31255
Back to the 4 squadrons of helos I estimated earlier.
Looks like the initial strike was around 0400, always the worst time to get woken up, especially by a missile attack.

The targeting and strike plan appears to be as I predicted in my first post, with the addition of the S400 battery I wasn't aware of.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Dzhankoy Update 3
Ukrainian official media now reporting the Dzhankoy strike, including partisan involvement
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/04/17/7451658/
It could therefore have been the humint I suggested that provided the immediate BDA post the initial strike.
They could do that from the apartment blocks overlooking the airfield from the west.

That do you, Probes?

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Speaker Mike Johnson announced today that he is sticking with his plan to put a series of foreign aid bills on the floor, including funding for Ukraine, after facing significant pressure from hardliners. Voting will happen on Saturday evening.

[probes]

Yeah, Fox...
They do, they do.

Looks like the initial strike was around 0400, always the worst time to get woken up, especially by a missile attack.

Sure, 5:30 would have been much more convenient!

HUR drones attacked the Gorbunov Aviation Plant in Kazan, where Russians manufacture and repair Tu-22M and Tu-160M bombers. The results of the attack are currently still being assessed.
Kyiv Post (I hadn't found that one before, tnx!), Kyiv Strikes Kremlin’s Bomber Plant in Tatarstan, Intel Sources Say

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Dzhankoy Update 4
I am reasonably confident, after further analysis, that the explosion and contrails seen in the video are a match for the position of the S400 battery shown near the eastern airfield revetments in the photo in the Kyiv Post analysis,
and that the plumes seen represent a standard 4 missile launcher going bang. Note that the middle of the three contrails is thicker, and I think represents 2 contrails very adjacent.

[probes]

I've read similar opinions.
Just how much flying force was there remains unconfirmed. Some say helicopters, and a lot. Dunno.

But ruz withdraws (or has already) the troops from Nagorno-Karabakh. One should guess no peace any more to keep there for them?
Or is it just more needed in UKR?
Le Monde: Russian peacekeepers withdraw from Nagorno-Karabakh

edited to add this:

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

We have the problem that accurate BDA is probably available to the Ukrainians via their partisans, but they probably then can't confirm it to us because of OpSec.
It may be possible to get some civilian satellite photos tomorrow, available to us Friday, but the Russians are in the habit of shifting the wrecks to disguise their losses.
We'll just have to take it as a good night's work.

[tango15]

We have the problem that accurate BDA is probably available to the Ukrainians via their partisans, but they probably then can't confirm it to us because of OpSec.
It may be possible to get some civilian satellite photos tomorrow, available to us Friday, but the Russians are in the habit of shifting the wrecks to disguise their losses.
We'll just have to take it as a good night's work.