Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

None of my usual 20 or so sources has posted anything about the front line or current attacks for 8 hours.
Even the Russians and their proxies are ignoring anything except a little cross-border shelling.
Coupled with the NASA Fire satellite website going down, I think we are approaching kick off.



..and then this gets posted

[Karearea]

The yards are surrounded by a metalworks. There are almost always hotspots here, due to the industrial works.
There were more than usual yesterday, but there were also more than usual at the other industrial hotspots around Ukraine, so I think this may be due to summer temperatures rather than any change in the industrial activity, or any missile strikes.

I could be wrong, but that's my guess.

Several quarries and stoneworks also generate hotspots.

Ah. I see. Thank you.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

If you take a look at Kryvyi Rih
https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/ma ... .5,52.5,7z
This is a similar large steelworks which has a lot more red dots than it did last month.

But, as I say, I'm guessing and could be wrong.

On which topic, FIRMS is back up.

Activity that's new is...
A bunch of storage sheds in a SE suburb of Melitopol - I suspect a Russian army depot just reached HIMARS o'clock.
Six locations in and around Shebekino on fire - probably the rebels fighting the Russians.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Still no significant news.
The Ukrainian Intel guys will be aware that this kind of silence can't be kept up for more than 2-4 days without stuff starting to leak out, even if only by accident.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

The Berdyansk dockyard strike.



It just got hit again this afternoon.

[prospector]

https://www.rt.com/russia/577419-ukrain ... aign=Email

"" Ukraine ‘ready’ to launch counteroffensive – Zelensky
The upcoming military operation will come at a tremendous cost, and many soldiers will die, the Ukrainian president has warned

Ukraine is ready to launch its long-awaited offensive, President Vladimir Zelensky told the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) in an interview published on Saturday. He did not reveal the exact date, but said Kiev can no longer “wait for months.”

The operation is likely to inflict heavy losses on Ukrainian troops, and might not go exactly as planned,""

[Karearea]

Confronting to think it really is the "same dear old Moon" looking down on these dreadful things.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

The Compleat Russian Army Tactical Doctrine. Since 1941

1.Shell the sh!t out of the place.
2.Send in the looters and murderers.



It does not matter to putin whether it's abroad or in Russia.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

There's a fire showing on satellite where the railroad crosses by bridge at the eastern isthmus into Crimea.
There's no bridge needed on the western isthmus railroad, so this will probably be dealt with by either sabotage, or hitting a train as it's on the line.

Lots of fires both sides of the border near Shebekino.
The Russians appear to be blasting everywhere, although naturally any round that hits a civilian house is claimed to have been fired by the rebels.
Still doesn't seem like they've hit any of the rebels though.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

It is Canadian Armed Forces Day.



Some of you might think, from the short hair cut, beer gut, trackpants and plastic sandals that this is a Canadian Maritimer, in full dress uniform*, on secondment in the Ukrainian Army.
But look closely, there's no baseball hat or coffee mug in evidence. Must be a volunteer from some other nation.

*The trackpants have pockets!

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

The Russians are claiming the counterattack has started, and they've defeated it

https://www.rt.com/russia/577470-ukrain ... ve-russia/

Both Uke units listed by the Russians are equipped with T-64s and MaxxPro (wheeled) APCs, according to Militaryland.net.

On a Uke-biased channel, this is being shown



The battle would appear to be between T-series tanks on both sides.
The Russian videos shows 4/5 kills max,unable to identify which side.
This wouldn't be the first time the Russians have used video of Russian vehicles being killed and claimed it was Uke vehicles.
Equally, there has been a lot of random rubbish being released by Uke supporters in the last 12 hours.

Russian bloggers have said Russian forces were beaten back up to 3km and lost two settlements.

Either way, this is not part of the main Uke force.
And it's in daylight. I'm sure the main Uke attacks will come at night.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

There are definitely Ukrainian operations around Novodarivka and east to the Mokri Yali river valley.
Yesterday's Russian video of Maxxpro APCs being hit has been validated by on scene Uke video (checked by me). I can confirm only two destroyed. It's apparent that they had just dropped off troops in a treeline, and that the vehicles would have been unoccupied by anyone other than maybe the driver when they were hit. I can also confirm one Russian tank and one Russian APC destroyed, the first by ATGM and the second by artillery.
The main Russian defensive line is about a dozen miles south of this area, and appears the weakest point in Zaporizhzhia. It's basically directly north of Berdyansk.

There's been a claim by a Russian soldier on Telegram that Leopards have been seen, but the upgraded Polish-supplied T-72s, the PT-91s, look similar. Given the amount of ERA the Ukes have slapped on every tank, recognition will be hard except from very close. The report includes that the attack was reinforced in the latter half of the night, was not clearly identified by drone, and so reached the Russian lines without significant opposition.

Fires around the Russian border town of Shebekino and its satellite villages continue.

Fires are appearing again in the forest NE of Kupyansk, in nominally Russian-controlled territory; and in the forests W of Kreminna, control disputed but probably both sides of the front, and in the Russian-controlled Oleshky Sands area opposite Kherson.

There is nothing else I can report that the Russians don't already know about

Update: Multiple new fires on the Left bank of the Dnipro, Russian-occupied southern Kherson.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Russian governor of the region has just confirmed the Russian rebels still hold Novaya Tavolzhanka, near Shebekino.
The Colonel in charge of the Russian troops in the region is reported killed. Evidence looks convincing to me. Seems his command vehicle was ambushed.

After dark now in southern Kherson. Russian blogger reporting that Russian troops in the Dnipro delta islands are coming under sustained attack from (presumably) Ukrainian SF/Marines in boats.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Possibly why the RVC / FRL are still holding Novaya Tavolzhanka



Whether or not this is genuine should become apparent in the next few days.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

This village is on the east (opposite) side of the river valley I mentioned earlier.



All the Russian-occupied villages up that valley now risk being isolated in a pincer movement.

I have not seen any Russian-sourced material that indicates more than a company of mechanised infantry on either side of the valley.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Here is a pro-China article written after 13 hours of the Ukraine war starting, predicting it would be over in 48 hours. And then that the Chinese conquest of Taiwan would take 72 hours.

They are probably recalculating a bit now

https://www.china-arms.com/2022/02/russ ... on-taiwan/

[John Hill]

Famous predictions:-

In April 2002, Bush declared: “The history of military conflict in Afghanistan [has] been one of initial success, followed by long years of floundering and ultimate failure. We’re not going to repeat that mistake.”