Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

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Fox3WheresMyBanana
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Re: Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

#3401 Post by Fox3WheresMyBanana » Sun Jan 22, 2023 1:37 pm

The Poles are not sitting on the fence

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Re: Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

#3402 Post by Fox3WheresMyBanana » Sun Jan 22, 2023 4:00 pm

Posted to Olaf Scholz's Twitter feed =))
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fm1DtVVagAA ... me=900x900

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Re: Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

#3403 Post by Fox3WheresMyBanana » Sun Jan 22, 2023 8:45 pm

Sounds like Scholz has crumpled faster than a cheap suit.




Hey, Vlad! The next Leopard you meet won't be so cuddly!
putin leopard.jpeg
putin leopard.jpeg (57.1 KiB) Viewed 407 times

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Re: Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

#3404 Post by Fox3WheresMyBanana » Sun Jan 22, 2023 9:11 pm

RT running with these two articles next to each other
Western tanks won’t be game changer in Ukraine – Kremlin
Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov warned that the importance of such supplies should not be exaggerated
A “global tragedy” could be in store for humanity if the West keeps supplying weapons to Ukraine, Russia's most senior lawmaker has warned.
I'm not sure if this means putin is doublethinking, his minions don't know what he wants, or RT is trying to cover all the bases at once.
What-ever.

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Re: Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

#3405 Post by Fox3WheresMyBanana » Sun Jan 22, 2023 9:16 pm

Macron has just said France may send Leclerc tanks.
Don't know whether this is to help Scholz to commit German Leopards in solidarity, or to pressure him into doing so.
Doesn't matter, as long as he does.

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Re: Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

#3406 Post by Fox3WheresMyBanana » Sun Jan 22, 2023 9:21 pm

Rollin', rollin', rollin'.....Rawhide!


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Re: Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

#3407 Post by Fox3WheresMyBanana » Sun Jan 22, 2023 9:24 pm

Moscow - paranoia sets in


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Re: Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

#3408 Post by Fox3WheresMyBanana » Sun Jan 22, 2023 9:29 pm

Current status of latest promises vs what the Ukrainian Armed Forces Head has additionally asked for.
(n.b. the second IFV listing is actually guns)



Does not include any Leopards, and French AMX10 numbers still unknown.

Key points are that training on these weapons (including Leopards) for Ukrainian troops has either started or will do Monday, and deliveries are expected before the end of March.
As you see just above, the Bradleys are already rollin' thru Poland.

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Re: Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

#3409 Post by Pinky the pilot » Mon Jan 23, 2023 12:48 am

German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock:

"When Poland delivers Leopard 2 to Ukraine then Germany will not object."
I had been thinking if there was some way of saying to Germany something along the lines of
"Ve haf vays of making you agree to giving Ukraine some Leopards.." :-?
You only live twice. Once when you're born. Once when you've looked death in the face.

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Re: Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

#3410 Post by Fox3WheresMyBanana » Mon Jan 23, 2023 1:01 am

I'm pretty sure the US promise to supply any nation that sent their Leopards anyway was what did it for giving their permission to others.
And frankly, I think Scholz is an idiot politician for not realising they would do something like this. This ranks with the Suez Crisis for Not Understanding That The Yanks Willl Turn The Screws If You Don't Do As You're Told.
As for Germany's possible contribution, I should imagine they will aim to match the French. Der Spiegel reckons there are 19 older model Leopard 2s that Germany could stick on a train in short order, not to mention the ones currently in active service that they could send now and replace later from their own upgrade program.

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Re: Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

#3411 Post by Fox3WheresMyBanana » Mon Jan 23, 2023 1:17 pm

Poland has said it is formally asking Germany for permission to send Leopards to Ukraine.
Norwegian government is meeting today in closed session. It has 52 Leopard 2s (36 operational), which it has already decided to replace with new tanks by 2025.
Norwegian media says tanks are the main topic at the meeting.

Estonia is sending ALL its heavy guns (24 FH70 155mm towed howitzers) to Ukraine, and hopes this commitment will be an example to others.
Russia and Estonia have each withdrawn their respective ambassadors. Handbags over whether either of them were kicked out or withdrew first.

There are several hundred Leopard 2s in storage around the world. However, the Czechs were thinking of buying the Spanish ones, but found they were in too poor a condition, and that may be true of other nations' stocks.

I would expect at least one brigade (100) of Leopards will appear in Ukrainian colours for the summer, from various donors.
It's possible they will get two or three.
It's possible any or all of them will be available for the end of March. Much depends on a political momentum getting going, on the state of Leopards in storage, and whether nations will send the stored ones, or (some of) their operational ones immediately and generate replacements from their own stored ones.

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Re: Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

#3412 Post by Fox3WheresMyBanana » Mon Jan 23, 2023 4:09 pm

Germany transferring a couple of Patriot to eastern Poland.
Looks like NATO are moving to defend the Ukraine border area where large transfers of equipment are about to take place.

putin is zugzwanged by Flugabwehrraketengeschwader! :D

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Re: Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

#3413 Post by Fox3WheresMyBanana » Mon Jan 23, 2023 9:25 pm

As of today...

Canada has so far committed...zero tanks.



20 T-72s, in case you were wondering.

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Re: Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

#3414 Post by G-CPTN » Mon Jan 23, 2023 9:41 pm

Are these tanks going to be supplied FOC?

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Re: Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

#3415 Post by Fox3WheresMyBanana » Mon Jan 23, 2023 10:26 pm

Unknown.
Ukraine will probably lend-lease them, like all their supplied weapons they will count as war expenses, and the money will be taken from funds (currently impounded, soon to be confiscated) from Russian oligarchs.

Looks like Scholz is contradicting his own foreign minister, and says Poland et al "will have to follow established procedure" to get permission to export their Leopards.
I expect the international community is going to get very fed up with this stalling very soon. Expect some fireworks in the next day or so.

Olaf Scholz, former VP of the International Union of Socialist Youth, and proud to meet East German Politburo ministers.

Also


So, there appears to be a disconnect between what's happening in private and what Scholz is saying in public.
If the US is confident, then it appears they can 'bring Scholz around to their way of thinking', as my flying instructors would say before taking a student round the back of the hangar for a good kicking.
It is obviously in the long term interests of NATO that Scholz gets a rocket up his jacksie behind closed doors.

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Re: Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

#3416 Post by Fox3WheresMyBanana » Tue Jan 24, 2023 11:36 am

I suspect Scholz didn't have a very pleasant night - unless he likes that sort of thing. Either way.

Poland has formally asked Germany for permission to export 14 Leopard 2s
100 Leopard 2s from 12 nations are expected by the Ukrainians

And this..


Last week, Rheinmetall said they could deliver zero tanks before 2024.
This week...


Zero becomes 139, just like that!
I must put Rheinmetall in charge of my bank account :))

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Re: Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

#3417 Post by Fox3WheresMyBanana » Tue Jan 24, 2023 11:44 am

The Russians are starting to lose aircraft again.



The following reports have appeared in the last week.
Russians are using human wave attacks with minimal or no armour support. (I suspect this is just Wagner)
In some areas of the front, the Ukes are outgunning the Russian arty 10:1 in rounds fired (May also just be Wagner, except Bakhmut)

It would seem that the Russians are trying to use the Air Force to make up for lack of armour and arty. Unsuccessfully.
About every couple of months the Overall Army Commander of the Week yells at the Air Force for doing nothing, so they launch about 5 days of attacks, lose a bunch of aircraft to no great effect (as they said would happen) and it all stops for another 7 weeks.

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Re: Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

#3418 Post by Fox3WheresMyBanana » Tue Jan 24, 2023 11:57 am




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Re: Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

#3419 Post by Fox3WheresMyBanana » Tue Jan 24, 2023 4:39 pm

The President of Finland made a surprise visit to Kyiv this morning. A joint press statement has announced Finland will contribute Leopard tanks.

Spain has just said its stored Leopards are all in good nick, contrary to previous reports. Spain was the first nation to say it was willing to send some to Ukraine, quite some time ago.

A decision from Germany is expected, via leaks, tomorrow.
It has also just been leaked to the WSJ that Biden is considering sending a token number of Abrams tanks, which was part of Scholz's requests last week.
This may be the figleaf that leaves Scholz with public credibility for sending Leopards, though I expect the real reason is that he's been given a nasty ultimatum behind closed doors.
Carrot and Stick. Good cop, bad cop.

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Re: Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

#3420 Post by Fox3WheresMyBanana » Tue Jan 24, 2023 4:49 pm



Luhansk is obviously 'Forever Russia', just like Kherson was for three weeks. :))



According to this, Ukrainian Air Force pilots and engineers are already training in the US.
The world's worst-kept secret is that they are training on F-16s.

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