Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

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Re: Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

#1681 Post by Undried Plum » Wed Jul 13, 2022 8:11 pm

Mebbe RevJim was taught the liturgy for such an occasion, during his training.

Perhaps the Amhariq, or Hebraic equivalent, or the Greek, or the James the Sixthian translation thereof, of "put your head between your legs and kiss your arse goodbye".

Or perhaps the dour Scots undertaker, recognising the massive loss of potentially huge revenue-earning work that can no longer be profited from. "Wurr doomed. Doomed, I tell ye".

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Re: Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

#1682 Post by John Hill » Thu Jul 14, 2022 4:42 am

Pontius Navigator wrote:
Wed Jul 13, 2022 1:13 pm

From an early 1960 secret book advice to bomber crews:

"In the event of being shot down you may become contaminated by fallout from your own weapon. On landing you would brush yourself down with a hand brush. In the event you don't have a brush use a clump of Heather or grass.
Then dig a trench about 7 feet long, remove your outer clothing and bury at one end before lying down and covering yourself with soil. Of course weather conditions might preclude you from removing outer garments. Remain under cover for 14 days.
Why not knock on a door and ask a friendly local for shelter?
Been in data comm since we formed the bits individually with a Morse key.

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Re: Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

#1683 Post by Undried Plum » Thu Jul 14, 2022 5:36 am

Pontius Navigator wrote:
Wed Jul 13, 2022 1:13 pm

From an early 1960 secret book advice to bomber crews:

"In the event of being shot down you may become contaminated by fallout from your own weapon. On landing you would brush yourself down with a hand brush. In the event you don't have a brush use a clump of Heather or grass.
Then dig a trench about 7 feet long, remove your outer clothing and bury at one end before lying down and covering yourself with soil. Of course weather conditions might preclude you from removing outer garments. Remain under cover for 14 days.
use a clump of Heather

If in Scotland, Heather won't mind. She's quite an accommodating lass, ye ken. ;)))

Though she might reject you for another partner after those 14 days, for having called her a clump.

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Re: Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

#1684 Post by Fox3WheresMyBanana » Wed Jul 27, 2022 10:31 am

Antonovsky bridge, Kherson, this morning
antonovsky bridge Kherson.jpeg
Hit by 7+ HIMARS rockets.
Only the bridge near the Kakhovka power station remains (I think), 40 miles away, then Kherson is isolated.

The Ukes will either hit now, I reckon, or do probing attacks to reduce Russian supplies, then launch the main attack in a few days.

This would appear to be video of the strike, last night


I count 9, possibly 10 rockets, with 7 hits on the bridge deck. The misses may of course have gone through holes created by the earlier hits.

Video of damage this morning here:
https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/
Job's a goodun'.
No point trying to fix it if HIMARS can hit that accurately, the Rooskies would just lose a repair crew as well.

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Re: Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

#1685 Post by Pontius Navigator » Wed Jul 27, 2022 2:06 pm

The point was made elsewhere, who allows BDA to be published on social media.

This is the distinguishing feature of this special operation that we get near time BDA and with georeferencing precise positions. We can also distinguish between old imagery and current.

In GW1 the media broadcast the Tornadoes departing on their first raid. They repeated that video for the next 3 days or so. Today, some uncontrolled guy with a mobile would post videos in minutes.

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Re: Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

#1686 Post by Boac » Wed Jul 27, 2022 2:58 pm

Possibly more shots?

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Re: Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

#1687 Post by Fox3WheresMyBanana » Wed Jul 27, 2022 3:40 pm

They hit the rail bridge in Kherson too.


At Kakhovka, mentioned earlier, there are parallel road and rail bridges. These are trickier as I guess they will not want to hit the hydro power plant or damage its dam, which the bridges run over. The bridges also the cross the canal lock next to the dam, but again they are very close to one of the lock gates, which I guess they won't want to hit either.

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Re: Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

#1688 Post by PHXPhlyer » Wed Jul 27, 2022 3:42 pm

I would also like to hear how effective the counter battery radar has been. :-?

PP

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Re: Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

#1689 Post by Fox3WheresMyBanana » Wed Jul 27, 2022 4:06 pm

My understanding is as follows:
The Ukes have a, I think unique, system they designed themselves for artillery allocation. They don't park up in batteries. Every gun commander finds his or herself a good spot in a given area.
They submit their locations via a secure phone app. When a fire mission request comes in, the AI gives out the details and asks for bids.
After the commanders have bid as available and in range, the AI works out the frag and dishes out the individual fire orders.
What the Rooskies see is a bunch of shots from all over the place, and their system is set up for countering a co-located battery. So, only a couple of the Uke guns are at risk.
The Rooskies cottoned on to this and tried jamming the phone signals and taking out phone masts.
The Ukes were saved when Musk handed them out a truckload of Starlink dishes. Now they communicate by wifi and the Rooskies can't stop them.

The second factor with the NATO-supplied guns is range, as they outrange the Rooskie guns.
I suspect when the Ukes had only the 155mm M777s, they were mostly using them outside the reply range of the Rooskie arty, and using their own 152mm SPGs shooting-and-scooting.
Now they have HIMARS, M270, PzH2000, M109, etc, and the main limit is getting enough ammo to the front.

The Rooskies still line up their arty batteries in a field, with predictable results.

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Re: Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

#1690 Post by Fox3WheresMyBanana » Wed Jul 27, 2022 5:40 pm

Update: The Official Ukrainian media reports that the approach road to the Kakhovka bridge was also hit, with use of it questionable.
https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/35 ... d-rma.html

I guess that's how they solved the problem of not hitting the dam. The approach road is slightly raised on pillars, so it's a mini-bridge in itself.

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Re: Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

#1691 Post by Fox3WheresMyBanana » Wed Jul 27, 2022 9:06 pm

Rooskies now have a ferry operating next to the Antonovsky bridge


More importantly, thanks to a Kherson cat owner and social media, everybody now knows they do and where it is.

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Re: Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

#1692 Post by boing » Thu Jul 28, 2022 3:35 am

Internet sleuths have already published information on social media. Wow! who needs the CIA.

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Re: Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

#1693 Post by Fox3WheresMyBanana » Thu Jul 28, 2022 6:06 pm

The advantage of having the CIA is that you can be sure that the CIA is wrong :D

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Re: Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

#1694 Post by Fox3WheresMyBanana » Thu Jul 28, 2022 6:25 pm

The Ukrainians have just blown up another ammo dump in Chernobaivka (NW edge of Kherson).
There are two small industrial areas on the edges of town, plus the airport.
It's completely flat, no trees, and has always been in Uke arty range.
It's visible to everyone, his drone, and his dog, and the Ukes in town still have cellphone service to the rest of Ukraine.
This is, by my count, the 18th time at least that the Russians have tried to base equipment or supplies there.
They had 8 goes at putting aircraft there.
And it always ends the same way, usually within hours.

I think I have discovered a training video from the Russian Staff College


The whole thing is so farcical that the Ukrainians have written songs about it.

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Re: Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

#1695 Post by boing » Thu Jul 28, 2022 8:09 pm

I am going to feed my ego by quoting my own old post.

#1407 Post by boing » Tue Apr 05, 2022 8:55 am
Here's a crazy idea. What, if instead of getting into a slugfest in Donbas, the Ukrainians moved against Kherson and Crimea. The Russians could not ignore this. This would put the Ukrainians as far away as possible from potential heavy Russian forces moving over the border and it would increase the length of the Russian supply lines. Instead of being potentially surrounded the Ukrainians would have friendly territory behind them and a relatively narrow battle front ahead of them. By destroying bridges on the Dneiper river it could make a Russian encircling move difficult.

The Russian supply lines to defend Sevastopol would have to be by sea or by a relatively long, thin, route along the coast susceptible to random attacks. Resupply through Kerch would draw forces away from the intended battle zone.
The item I foolishly discounted was Russian Air Force bases in Crimea although the Russians seem to be using little air power and the Ukraine is getting improved G to A equipment. I think in retrospect that Ukraine always intended to hit Kherson first but they wanted to tie down the Russians in the East. That move worked but probably cost Ukraine more than they expected.
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Re: Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

#1696 Post by Boac » Fri Jul 29, 2022 8:23 am

Interesting p.o.v. from the Grauniad https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... 1659076525

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Re: Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

#1697 Post by TheGreenAnger » Fri Jul 29, 2022 8:31 am

Boac wrote:
Fri Jul 29, 2022 8:23 am
Interesting p.o.v. from the Grauniad https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... 1659076525
I just read that article earlier before noticing the link here. I am not a fan of Jenkins but I was apt to start to agree with some of his points until he made his last and singularly most ludicrous point.
Meanwhile, the west and its peoples have been plunged into recession. Leadership has been shaken and insecurity spread in Britain, France, Italy and the US. Gas-starved Germany and Hungary are close to dancing to Putin’s tune. Living costs are escalating everywhere. Yet still no one dares question sanctions. It is sacrilege to admit their failure or conceive retreat. The west has been enticed into the timeless irony of aggression. Eventually its most conspicuous victim is the aggressor. Perhaps, after all, we should stick to war.
So does Jenkins think we should continue trading with a country that we are effectively at war with? We can't have it both ways and Jenkins's overall thesis, although it has nuggets of truth in it, is fatally flawed.

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Re: Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

#1698 Post by Boac » Fri Jul 29, 2022 9:04 am

Is he not saying that he thinks it would have been better to bite the bullet and halt the Russian invasion of Ukraine at the outset - less pain, more gain - rather than pussy-footing around with somewhat ineffective sanctions, especially without a unified approach?

I'm not saying he is right, since the potential chaos that would have ensued would be enormous, but? It all hinges on whether Russia can be 'persuaded' by whatever means to withdraw from Ukraine under current policies.

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Re: Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

#1699 Post by TheGreenAnger » Fri Jul 29, 2022 9:15 am

Boac wrote:
Fri Jul 29, 2022 9:04 am
Is he not saying that he thinks it would have been better to bite the bullet and halt the Russian invasion of Ukraine at the outset - less pain, more gain - rather than pussy-footing around with somewhat ineffective sanctions, especially without a unified approach?

I'm not saying he is right, since the potential chaos that would have ensued would be enormous, but? It all hinges on whether Russia can be 'persuaded' by whatever means to withdraw from Ukraine under current policies.
Yes, I guess he is saying that, and his point is well taken, in fact we should have started that military modus operandi back in 2014 when Russia invaded the Crimea, but as ever with Mr. Jenkins, his point is now moot and represents 20/20 hindsight, as we didn't follow that approach and now are faced with the pain of sanctions and further military commitment as we fight that war by proxy, right up to the very last Ukranian!
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Re: Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

#1700 Post by Fox3WheresMyBanana » Fri Jul 29, 2022 9:52 am

Jenkins is an idiot.
The first massive failure was that certain western countries became dependent on critical resources supplied by a murderous gangster. And this can't be mentioned because the same is true of supplies from China.
The second is not that sanctions were applied, but that weapons were supplied to Ukraine far too slowly due to political indecisiveness, or outright delayed in the cases of Scholz and Macron. I am not criticising the current level of support, just the time it took to get going in many countries. The UK was pretty good in this respect.
The third point, which Jenkins completely fails to address, is whether Putin will go back to how things were if sanctions were suddenly lifted. Will he heck. Putin has Europe by the short and curlies by stopping them building up gas reserves, and he isn't about to give that up. Alea iacta est - the die is cast - full support needs to be given to Ukraine to finish this as fast as possible. I suspect it is already too late in terms of world food supply from this winter through to next.

And all this from the newspaper that keeps its funding in offshore bank accounts and suppresses all criticsm whilst lying about doing so.

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