Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

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Re: Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

#1701 Post by TheGreenAnger » Fri Jul 29, 2022 9:58 am

Fox3WheresMyBanana wrote:
Fri Jul 29, 2022 9:52 am
Jenkins is an idiot.
The first massive failure was that certain western countries became dependent on critical resources supplied by a murderous gangster. And this can't be mentioned because the same is true of supplies from China.
The second is not that sanctions were applied, but that weapons were supplied to Ukraine far too slowly due to political indecisiveness, or outright delayed in the cases of Scholz and Macron. I am not criticising the current level of support, just the time it took to get going in many countries. The UK was pretty good in this respect.
The third point, which Jenkins completely fails to address, is whether Putin will go back to how things were if sanctions were suddenly lifted. Will he heck. Putin has Europe by the short and curlies by stopping them building up gas reserves, and he isn't about to give that up. Alea iacta est - the die is cast - full support needs to be given to Ukraine to finish this as fast as possible. I suspect it is already too late in terms of world food supply from this winter through to next.

And all this from the newspaper that keeps its funding in offshore bank accounts and suppresses all criticsm whilst lying about doing so.
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Re: Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

#1702 Post by Fox3WheresMyBanana » Fri Jul 29, 2022 10:06 am

The Ukes have blown up at least another 5 ammo dumps around Kherson.
Of particular note is the one at Brilivka, 25 miles from the Dnipro river. This is the next unloading point back after Poima, on the track leading to the Kherson railbridge. There some video online of lots of secondaries from the big blaze.
They blew the bridge a few days ago. They waited 2 days and hit the Poima depot the Russians must have just got going. Last night they hit the depot the Russians must have set up in Brilivka after the one at Poima got hit.
The next place back with freight loading facilities is Myrna, which is 45 miles back.
Rinse, repeat.
Very organised indeed. And, as with Chernobaivka, the Russians are clearly taking 'How stupid can you get?' as a challenge, not criticism.
There are reports than the Kadyrovski are lined up on the SE bank of the Dnipro ready to shoot any Russians who try to flee from the Ukes, just like the NKVD in WW2. I suspect that, once the Uke attack gets going, this is more likely to lead to a mass Russian surrender rather than the fight-to-the-death mentality that is intended.

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Re: Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

#1703 Post by boing » Fri Jul 29, 2022 3:08 pm

If Biden would allow full oil production in the US instead of begging the Saudis for help the US could be self-sufficient in oil and have enough surplus to ship to Europe. Unfortunately Biden has caused so many delays that even if oil production is increased by the next President it will be a year before we see the effects.

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Re: Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

#1704 Post by boing » Fri Jul 29, 2022 3:17 pm

The Ukrainians are taking great pleasure in turning this into a reverse Mariupol. That will be a large part of this situations propaganda effect, it is revenge for Mariupol without the crass violence.

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Re: Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

#1705 Post by Fox3WheresMyBanana » Sun Jul 31, 2022 3:24 pm

Latest news is that the Russians have tried running a train of forty cars full of armour past the Brilivka yards and straight up to the Kherson front. It appears that a HIMARS strike has hit the train just north of there, with a fire recorded by the satellite fire detection system showing one bang on the railway. Must have had some pretty accurate info on the train's progress.
brilyvka.jpeg

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Re: Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

#1706 Post by boing » Sun Jul 31, 2022 3:42 pm

I would guess that they chose a point for the strike so they would know the impact time within seconds. What they needed then was the trains arrival time at that point. I don't know whether they had drone information but even a ground observer on the Byylivka road would be able to get the timing close enough close enough if the train was making steady progress. Still a neat piece of work.
It is not going to be a short job to offload the vehicles and get them to the roads especially being within missile range. I would think they will have a few more visitors to seal the deal.
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Re: Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

#1707 Post by Pontius Navigator » Sun Jul 31, 2022 4:56 pm

boing wrote:
Sun Jul 31, 2022 3:42 pm
It is not going to be a short job to offload the vehicles and get them to the roads especially being within missile range. I would think they will have a few more visitors to seal the deal.
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That is assuming a nice orderly stop, no shunting, all waggons remaining upright, and track on level assessible ground.

Wait until recovery teams in place and drop another behind them.

If the red square is accurate, it looks as if the train might have been hit in a cutting.

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Re: Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

#1708 Post by Fox3WheresMyBanana » Sun Jul 31, 2022 6:01 pm

Oh, good spot on the cutting!
I remember that little nicety from the Weapons Employment Course, now you mention it. Got to focus those blast waves :ymdevil:
Will also be a pig for the recovery chapskies

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Re: Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

#1709 Post by boing » Sun Jul 31, 2022 7:59 pm

Haven't seen an exact location yet but since they could choose the spot it seems they made a good choice.

But not only has that particular convoy been stopped the line is closed totally until it is cleared. Just think, in WW2 it would have taken a week of heavy attacks to cut a rail-line,
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Re: Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

#1710 Post by llondel » Sun Jul 31, 2022 9:07 pm

boing wrote:
Sun Jul 31, 2022 7:59 pm
Haven't seen an exact location yet but since they could choose the spot it seems they made a good choice.

But not only has that particular convoy been stopped the line is closed totally until it is cleared. Just think, in WW2 it would have taken a week of heavy attacks to cut a rail-line,
Or a Tallboy.

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Re: Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

#1711 Post by prospector » Mon Aug 01, 2022 2:54 am

https://www.rt.com/russia/559920-russia ... aign=Email


"The Russian Defense Ministry announced on Sunday that it had officially invited independent experts from the UN and the Red Cross to investigate the shelling of a detention center in the Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR). The bombing on Friday killed 50 prisoners, and wounded dozens more.

“In the interest of conducting an objective investigation of the strike on the detention center in Yelenovka, which led to the deaths of many Ukrainian prisoners of war, the Russian Federation has officially invited experts from the UN and the International Red Cross Committee,” the ministry said.


“All political, criminal and moral responsibility for the bloodbath against Ukrainians is borne personally by Zelensky, his criminal regime and Washington, which supports them,” Moscow said.

The Ukrainian military released a statement on Friday, claiming that Moscow destroyed the prison in order to pin the blame on Kiev, as well as to “hide the torture of prisoners and executions."

However, the DPR military suggested it was the Ukrainian authorities who had the reason to “deliberately” target the facility. The republic’s head, Denis Pushilin, said “Azov” members had been providing testimonies about possible war crimes by their commanders. The Kiev authorities also knew exactly where the “Azov” prisoners were being held, DPR militia spokesman Eduard Basurin told reporters.

Meanwhile, unlike the government in Kiev, Ukraine’s backers in Washington did not rush to blame the bombing on Moscow.

“We just don’t have enough information to speak intelligently about these very early reports,” John Kirby, spokesman for the US National Security Council, told reporters."

At least one can believe John Kirby, in the meantime anyway,

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Re: Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

#1712 Post by Pontius Navigator » Mon Aug 01, 2022 7:21 am

It seems the train was actually at the Brilivka station which makes more sense for a HIMARS hit. It would probably, as they claim, account for more railway personnel. The station might have been an offload point.

UKRINFORM
2029: Russia’s special train of over 40 cars destroyed with HIMARS in Kherson Region
On the night of July 30, 2022, a special train of more than 40 cars with Russian troops, military equipment and ammunition, which arrived from Crimea to Kherson Region’s Brylivka Station, was destroyed with the High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS).

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Re: Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

#1713 Post by Fox3WheresMyBanana » Mon Aug 01, 2022 9:20 am

Despite the Russian claims, it has not either invited the ICRC, or responded to their offers.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/re ... reddit.com
Interestingly, the number of Russian dead and wounded in the claimed attack is....zero.
Which exactly matches the believability of their statements.

It seems there was a single attack at Brilivka on Friday, which destroyed both the ammo dump at/near the station, and the train whilst it was in the station. And that those two results got separately reported for a while, so some reporters assumed there were two attacks. Reports of 80 Russian dead and 200 wounded, which would seem reasonable if the train was been unloaded at the time of the attack. There is a crane gantry over sidings adjacent to the station, plus ample fenced hardstanding.

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Re: Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

#1714 Post by Pontius Navigator » Mon Aug 01, 2022 10:18 am

Fox3WheresMyBanana wrote:
Mon Aug 01, 2022 9:20 am

It seems there was a single attack at Brilivka on Friday, which destroyed both the ammo dump at/near the station, and the train whilst it was in the station. And that those two results got separately reported for a while, so some reporters assumed there were two attacks. Reports of 80 Russian dead and 200 wounded, which would seem reasonable if the train was been unloaded at the time of the attack. There is a crane gantry over sidings adjacent to the station, plus ample fenced hardstanding.
Better yet, the rail tracks into the station are multi-track. There also appears to be a junction leading to a tank farm to the north of the main track. Hitting that ammo dump, station, and presumably by good luck or timing, the train would suggest benefits far greater than a simple rocket on the train.

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Re: Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

#1715 Post by Fox3WheresMyBanana » Mon Aug 01, 2022 10:52 am

I can't quite tell whether that "tank farm" is agricultural silos, or POL. I thought the former.
The rusted orange deck in the NW corner by the hut would appear to be a weighbridge, which would be normal for ag but not POL.

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Re: Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

#1716 Post by 4mastacker » Mon Aug 01, 2022 11:36 am

I think the "tank farm" is a POL point. In addition to the 11 vertical tanks there is a row of 10 horizontal above-ground tanks plus a further 5 to the north. On the hardstanding to the south-east of the V-tanks is what appears to be a dispense/off-load point. It appears the compound may have been rail-served in the past.

Although I don't know what the Ukranian regs are when it comes to the construction of BFIs, I can't see if there is a bund around the 11 V-tanks, although there does appear to be a earth bank bund around the large single tank to the north of the installation.
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Re: Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

#1717 Post by Pontius Navigator » Mon Aug 01, 2022 4:48 pm

Fox3WheresMyBanana wrote:
Mon Aug 01, 2022 10:52 am
I can't quite tell whether that "tank farm" is agricultural silos, or POL. I thought the former.
The rusted orange deck in the NW corner by the hut would appear to be a weighbridge, which would be normal for ag but not POL.
Agree, 40-60

OTOH I expect we aircrew will concede to a stacker.

Edit: 4ma has it. I found a CNN reference 3 days ago to oil storage North of the railway.

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Re: Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

#1718 Post by Fox3WheresMyBanana » Mon Aug 01, 2022 5:21 pm

Yes,
looks like most of it is POL, with maybe an ag loading/unloading point in the NW corner. The bunds have it, nice one 4ma!
p.s. Did you do time on Tiswas?

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Re: Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

#1719 Post by 4mastacker » Mon Aug 01, 2022 7:09 pm

Fox3WheresMyBanana wrote:
Mon Aug 01, 2022 5:21 pm
........
p.s. Did you do time on Tiswas?
No, I managed to escape that posting although I did spend quite a bit of time on POL duties at various locations.
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Re: Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

#1720 Post by Fox3WheresMyBanana » Tue Aug 02, 2022 1:03 am

Reported that the Russians have established a 400m exclusion zone for locals, including evictions, around Brilivka station, and have started checking cellphones, etc.
so that's how the Rooskies suspect the HIMARS crew got their targeting info.
https://sprotyv.mod.gov.ua/en/2022/08/0 ... partisans/

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