Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

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Re: Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

#5741 Post by Fox3WheresMyBanana » Sat Apr 06, 2024 6:31 pm

First satellite photos of the Russian air bases attacked.



Can't really say what the actual losses were. Some indications of 1 Bear, 2 Fullbacks and a Frogfoot damaged.
The Russians have clearly had time to move wrecks/damaged aircraft under cover.

The one definite is that Morozosk air base is now non-operational as all the vast majority of aircraft have left.
Base abandonment did not happen with Ukraine's early drone attacks last year.

Here is some more video which the Ukes claim was their routing.

It probably doesn't show a detailed routing, which would avoid certain areas suspected to have anti-air weapons.

Having to move the Fullbacks further back indicates the Russians do not trust their own air defences, frontal, area, or point defence of air bases.
It will extend transit times, and may limit the aircraft to a reduced weapon load (e.g. only 2 glide bombs rather than 4).
It also gives more time for the Russian aircraft to be detected and likely areas of attack alerted.

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Re: Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

#5742 Post by probes » Sun Apr 07, 2024 6:54 am

Good. For now, the almost only defence for the bloody glide bombs.
Azov (Rostov oblast) oil pipeline hit, supply to tankers on Azov sea disrupted.
Zelensky interview: this year UKR will be in defence, not enough artillery ammo. And 10% of the F-16 will be delivered; 10% of what has been promised to be sent that is. About 20, then.

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Re: Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

#5743 Post by tango15 » Sun Apr 07, 2024 9:11 am

probes wrote:
Sun Apr 07, 2024 6:54 am
Good. For now, the almost only defence for the bloody glide bombs.
Azov (Rostov oblast) oil pipeline hit, supply to tankers on Azov sea disrupted.
Zelensky interview: this year UKR will be in defence, not enough artillery ammo. And 10% of the F-16 will be delivered; 10% of what has been promised to be sent that is. About 20, then.
I find it odd that Ukraine, or at least one of its senior spokespersons seems less than enamoured about the potential delivery of the F-16s, saying they are not needed. There are ongoing discussions about Urkaine opening up to civil air traffic again, and if this were to happen, one would imagine that fighter escorts would be required between the departure airport and the border, Falklands style.

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Re: Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

#5744 Post by probes » Sun Apr 07, 2024 9:55 am

tango15 wrote:
Sun Apr 07, 2024 9:11 am
I find it odd that Ukraine, or at least one of its senior spokespersons seems less than enamoured about the potential delivery of the F-16s, saying they are not needed. There are ongoing discussions about Urkaine opening up to civil air traffic again, and if this were to happen, one would imagine that fighter escorts would be required between the departure airport and the border, Falklands style.

There are spokesmen and strategies and journos who pick up all kinds of news everywhere, I guess?


Interesting, how 'red lines' fade when crossed habitually. ruz has also used the phosphor bombs (forbidden), thermobaric ones (forbidden), flats out residential areas (claiming it's mil something - well documented it isn't) - and so on.
Russia carrying out illegal chemical attacks on Ukrainian soldiers

P.S. ruz has its own flood now: Thousands evacuated as Orsk dam burst worsens Russia floods. The oil refinery there had to stop operating.

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Re: Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

#5745 Post by probes » Sun Apr 07, 2024 11:54 am

How many Patriot systems are there, in total, actually? Any approximate estimations, anybody?

Senior Army leaders have approved plans to boost the number of Patriot units inside the force, in a bid to alleviate the high demand for the air defense capability, according to a three-star general.

And the somewhat surprising opinion [my highlight in the text; full text just in case], editorial board, from NYTimes:
Help Ukraine Hold the Line
After more than two years of brutal, unrelenting war, Ukraine is still ready and has the capacity to defend its democracy and territory against Russia. But it cannot do so without American military assistance, which the United States had assured the Ukrainians would be there as long as it was needed.
A majority of Americans understand this, and believe that curbing the revanchist dreams of Russia’s leader, Vladimir Putin, is America’s duty to Ukraine and to American security. A survey by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs and Ipsos found that 58 percent of Americans favor providing economic help to Ukraine and sending more arms and military equipment to the Ukrainian government. And 60 percent of respondents said that the U.S. security relationship with Ukraine does more to strengthen American national security than to weaken it.
While that support has declined somewhat since the beginning of Russia’s invasion, and it is weaker among Republicans, many Republican members of Congress also support continuing military aid. So it is distressing that the fate of Ukraine has fallen prey to internecine Republican politicking. House Speaker Mike Johnson has the power to do the right thing, but time is running critically short.
Without American artillery, as well as antitank and antiaircraft shells and missiles, Ukraine cannot hold off an army that has a far deeper supply of men and munitions. “Russia is now firing at least five times as many artillery rounds as Ukraine,” as Andrew Kramer of The Times reported. As summer approaches, Russia is expected to prepare a new offensive thrust. Mr. Johnson knows this. He also knows that, if he brings it to a vote, a $60.1 billion aid package for Ukraine would most likely sail through the House with bipartisan support. Many Republican members and most Democrats want to pass it. The Senate passed it in February.
Yet so far, Mr. Johnson has avoided a vote, fearing that a clutch of far-right House members, who parrot the views of Donald Trump and oppose any more aid for Ukraine, could topple him from the speaker’s post. To placate them, the speaker has said he will produce a proposal with “important innovations” when legislators return to work on Tuesday. These may include lifting the Biden administration’s hold on liquefied natural gas exports, including a proposed terminal in his home state, Louisiana; calling the aid a loan; or seizing billions of frozen Russian assets.
None of those conditions are wise. Tying aid for Ukraine to unrelated political goals, such as undoing President Biden’s climate change agenda, may be typical of congressional horse trading, but it turns Ukraine into a pawn in partisan conflict. “This is not some political skirmish that only matters here in America,” Donald Tusk, the Polish prime minister, said on his visit to Washington last month. The speaker’s decision, he said, “will really cost thousands of lives there — children, women. He must be aware of his personal responsibility.”
Nor does it make sense to force Ukraine to take on massive debt when it’s fighting for its life, and its economy is already dependent on aid. Seizing large sums of money from another sovereign nation could also have unpredictable legal and economic consequences.
Given Ukraine’s perilous position, however, most Democrats and Republicans would likely accept what Mr. Johnson cobbles together, even measures they have reservations about, particularly since the package also includes aid for Israel and Taiwan. Those lawmakers are right to pursue a reasonable compromise. The House minority leader, Hakeem Jeffries, has also suggested that Democrats will support Mr. Johnson as speaker to avoid yet another damaging and pointless fight over the speakership. Those moves are welcome steps to try to loosen the grip of Republican extremists on America’s ability to support its allies.
Of course, recalcitrance in Congress is not Ukraine’s only problem. Europe has been slow to step in to meet Ukraine’s military needs, and the country’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky, may have taken too long to lower the recruitment age to 25 in the face of a shortage of soldiers.
But American weapons and artillery are essential to Ukraine’s ability to hold the line and, eventually, to negotiate for an end to hostilities from a position of strength. No country has the stockpiles or the production capabilities to match the United States in producing and providing the 155-millimeter artillery shells, HIMARS (High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems) or air defense systems that Ukraine requires to hold the Russians at bay. Russia, by contrast, has successfully ramped up military production and is receiving supplies from North Korea and Iran, and Mr. Putin has used the recent terror attack on a concert hall in Moscow to ramp up recruitment.
Ukraine is already suffering the consequences of America’s faltering support. Russian forces took the eastern city of Avdiivka in February, and U.S. intelligence officials warned Congress that this happened because Ukraine ran out of artillery shells. The Russian command is doubtlessly aware of this as it plans its next moves.
Mr. Putin gambled from the outset that the United States would not go the distance in its support for Ukraine, and he must be reveling in the goings-on in Congress.
Allowing Russia to impose its will on Ukraine would be a devastating blow to America’s credibility and leadership — fulfilling one of Mr. Putin’s long-term goals.
That, in turn, would risk encouraging him to test waters further afield, whether in the Baltic States, in western Europe or to the south, and would signal to Xi Jinping that China, too, can throw its weight around.
Mr. Trump and his followers may argue that the security of Ukraine, or even of Europe, is not America’s business. But the consequence of allowing a Russian victory in Ukraine is a world in which authoritarian strongmen feel free to crush dissent or seize territory with impunity. That is a threat to the security of America, and the world.
Congress is prepared to stand up to this aggression; it is Mr. Johnson’s duty to bring this effort to a vote.

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Re: Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

#5746 Post by Fox3WheresMyBanana » Sun Apr 07, 2024 1:37 pm

Orsk flooding
Found this video


Drone taking the video appears to be over this area, first looking SE, then SW.
https://www.google.com/maps/place/51%C2 ... ?entry=ttu

Looks like rail traffic may be suspended also. Orsk is a regional hub for the south Urals with no nearby alternatives to the Orsk river bridges.
My best guess from the elevation map is that the bridges themselves are above water, but the lines may be flooded on the northern approaches.
The refinery appears to be above water, so I would guess it is either unreachable because of surrounding flooding, or inoperable due to loss of either power or water utilities.
Time to fix therefore unknown.

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Re: Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

#5747 Post by Fox3WheresMyBanana » Sun Apr 07, 2024 3:33 pm

A second dam has burst in Orsk.

Strictly speaking, these are levees, low earthen banks designed to constrain seasonal flooding from the Ural River.
RT is reporting that the levees failed due to negligent maintenance (no surprises there!).
Levee breaches tend to widen as the waters pour through, since the sides are just packed earth.
If they don't stem the breaches quickly, and it seems they haven't, then they will just have to wait for the flooding to subside naturally.
One bit of video shows a levee breach in Orsk with a torrent pouring through it and no one around attempting to repair it.
However, other video shows a more general overtopping of levees rather than breaches. So, either they weren't build to spec, or the floods are higher than the spec. Or both!

Orsk has likely lost almost all its veggie gardens, and the sewage plant, which are all just behind the levees.
In a bare flood plain, simple gardens would be enriched by the river silt deposited in occasional floods. However, with the developed gardens in Russia, any amount of stuff will be dumped as well as silt, tools will be ruined, maybe seedstocks lost, etc. I doubt they'll be growing much this year.

The floodwaters are now headed downriver (Ural River) to Orenburg.
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/04/7/7450110/
So far, only the pony clubs appear to be under water. However, the same problems with the veggie gardens and the sewage plant likely exist.
Most of Orenburg is on a slightly higher part of the river bank, so is probably not at risk. More than half of Orsk is likely safe also.
However, the Orenburg refinery is also reported shut down.
I am going to guess that it's drainage infrastructure failures which have shut them down, since waste water from them would likely now pollute all the surrounding flood plains, i.e. the veggie gardens.

For those not aware, the veggie plots run by individual Russians use only 3% of the arable area of Russia, but produce around 50% of the food by value eaten in Russia. Losing them permanently in any area would be a total disaster.
And whatever putin's lot in Moscow say about restarting the refineries early and risking the gardens ( "It's OK, we'll send you replacement supplies"), they will be ignored by the locals.

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Re: Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

#5748 Post by Fox3WheresMyBanana » Sun Apr 07, 2024 4:12 pm

Ukrainian claims for the Yeysk air base drone attack are up from two Frogfoots to 4 Flankers, 2 transport aircraft and a Be-200.
It's unclear whether this is due to better post-strike satellite imagery or 'other sources'.
The satellite imagery so far available to bloggers, some of which I've seen, is too low res and not proximal in time enough to resolve the claims one way or the other.
However, the Be-200 does look to have lost part of the left wing.

Satellite photos show that Yeysk air base is operational again. The majority of the aircraft appear to be still elsewhere, all the ones that were in the more remote revetments.
The aircraft that are present are now largely on the main flight line.
I presume therefore that they are all on something like a 15 minute readiness (which means pilots dismounted), and will survival scramble if drones are detected inbound.
Reports were that the attacking drones were detected 20 minutes out. Unknown whether a survival scramble happened on the night of the drone attack.
Twenty minutes out for Yeysk would mean the drones were detected when they went feet wet from the north coast of the Sea of Azov, which is believable.

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Re: Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

#5749 Post by Dushan » Sun Apr 07, 2024 10:49 pm

Drove my Chevy to the levee, but the levee was…. Oh, wait!
Because they stand on the wall and say "nothing's gonna hurt you tonight, not on my watch".

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Re: Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

#5750 Post by probes » Mon Apr 08, 2024 9:41 am

Yeah, if it had been, they had been, and wouldn't be in trouble now :-B , would they.
Videos are reported in social media of locals laughing merrily at the initial bursts (quite the oppsoite to what Fox suggested :) )

Somehow, it's still not clear how many planes were hit. ruz had admitted 1 person was killed, so something must have happened, but they seem to have tried hard to maybe even replace the damaged planes with undamaged ones. Shrapnel piercing won't show on satellite images anyway.
The drones are supposed to reach that far thanks to DSMAC (Digital Scene Matching Area Correlator), which is not a new thing, rather an improved old one.
video:
How many running? You'd never believe...

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Re: Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

#5751 Post by probes » Mon Apr 08, 2024 1:40 pm

UKR waited until they had to refill:


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Re: Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

#5752 Post by probes » Tue Apr 09, 2024 7:13 am

The missile ship "Serpuhov" electronics etc system caught fire. The ship was on the Baltic Sea, but UKR has a video on how the fire broke out. Hm.
It was a comparatively new one (2015) and could have been used at the Black Sea.


The flood is getting worse, and is apparently a natural catastrophy and dam failure due to poor maintenance (lack of men to do work everywhere) and maybe construction errors (meant for up to 5 m rise of water level, this year it was the 100 yr high, 9 m).
A highway bridge accross the railway collapsed. Again, maintenance. Locals are angry - where's all the oil moneys! why nothing done for infrastructure! - but as the tradition goes, they complain to the czar and beg putin to do something.



AND, Russian trolls target U.S. support for Ukraine, Kremlin documents show - something ruz is really good at.

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Re: Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

#5753 Post by Fox3WheresMyBanana » Tue Apr 09, 2024 11:50 am

This video appears to be from a mobile at ground level, immediately after the petrol station attack shown in Probes' #5751 post

https://mstdn.social/@noelreports/112240387265828930

Looks like at least 3 dead Kadyrovski
Location is Velyki Kopani, about 25km behind the Dnipro, 46.486149, 32.974277
This is where one would expect the Chechens to be around, ready to shoot any Russians who think of retreating.

I can't be sure, but this may be a drone attack that hits a vehicle under the canopy, rather than an artillery strike that goes through the canopy first.
If so, quite a long range drone.

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Re: Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

#5754 Post by probes » Tue Apr 09, 2024 1:14 pm

Isn't it interesting -in today's world with conflicts almost live (in social media) people are more diverse than ever in their beliefs.
"Let's talk about what this really is, Steve: This is a war against Christianity," Greene said on Steve Bannon's War Room podcast. "The Ukrainian government is attacking Christians; the Ukrainian government is executing priests. Russia is not doing that; they're not attacking Christianity. As a matter of fact, they seem to be protecting it."
- says Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene for Newsweek.

On second thoughts, Stalin regime also organised "tours of culture" for western reps, and several of them went on to praise his "good work" when back at home.

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Re: Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

#5755 Post by Fox3WheresMyBanana » Tue Apr 09, 2024 2:03 pm

The mainstream media have, at best, become an irrelevance.
Social media has largely taken its place as a source of information.
But, as far as I can see, it has taken over at the point where it is largely as biased, illogical, inexperienced and self-promoting as the mainstream media has become.

Finding the nuggets of truth in the great wash of drivel gets harder every week.

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Re: Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

#5756 Post by Fox3WheresMyBanana » Tue Apr 09, 2024 7:00 pm

Defense Secretary Austin warned that Ukraine’s recent attacks on Russian oil refineries risk impacting global energy markets and urged the country to focus on military targets instead.

"Those attacks could have a knock-on effect in terms of the global energy situation. Ukraine is better served in going after tactical and operational targets that can directly influence the current fight," he emphasized.
Translation: Stop hitting the refineries or the price of gas will rise and that'll screw Biden's re-election hopes.

Translation of continued strikes by Ukraine: "We'll keep hitting them till you pony up the ammo, so you'd better get your finger out and get to work on the Speaker."

Fox3: Fluent in Diplospeak, Political Weaselese, PR-Bolleaux, Corporo-babble, and Explosive Meanings.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... il-markets

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Re: Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

#5757 Post by probes » Tue Apr 09, 2024 8:35 pm

Fox3WheresMyBanana wrote:
Tue Apr 09, 2024 7:00 pm
Fox3: Fluent in Diplospeak, Political Weaselese, PR-Bolleaux, Corporo-babble, and Explosive Meanings.
:D
in short: keep fighting, guys, fingers crossed as our contribution.
Ok, not fair, US has given a lot, but...

So they hit an aviation facility:


Former Rep. Kinzinger: Johnson will be blamed in history books if Ukraine loses war with Russia
“Now, he has to think about his conscience, because I got to tell you, if Ukraine loses this fight, he will be the guy in the history books that are written about why Ukraine lost this fight,” Kinzinger said in an interview on CNN. “They won’t necessarily say that he’s the one that pulled the aid, but he’s the one that could have done something which changed it.”
“We need to recognize the fact that Ukraine — it’s not us helping Ukraine. Ukraine is helping us, by fighting to defend themselves against one of our chief competitors and frankly, enemies in this world,” Kinzinger added as he highlighted the importance of passing aid to Ukraine.
P.S. fortunately the Ural river flood took care of another oil refinery anyway.

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Re: Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

#5758 Post by Groundgripper » Wed Apr 10, 2024 9:03 am

fortunately the Ural river flood took care of another oil refinery anyway
Probably a good time to drop a few drones in there - they won't be expecting it and it'll be more difficult to get the services in to put out the resulting fires. :ymdevil:

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Re: Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

#5759 Post by tango15 » Wed Apr 10, 2024 9:15 am

There is a big Ilyushin production factory at Voronezh. I wonder if part of that was hit? It also does MRO for other aircraft.

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Re: Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

#5760 Post by Fox3WheresMyBanana » Wed Apr 10, 2024 12:09 pm

Video from the Orenburg floods
https://mstdn.social/@noelreports/112246364146688105
I have located this here
https://www.google.com/maps/@51.7313208 ... &entry=ttu
Elevation is 292 ft.
The city sewage plant is at about the same level. If this floods/has already flooded, it effectively forces the shutdown of industry to avoid rendering the veggie gardens unusable by contamination.
This depth of flooding would also put 2 of the three rail lines under water - Orenburg could now be a terminus.
Almost all of the city is likely still safe from flooding, as it is above the flood plain.
There's some video and satellite photos around, but unfortunately none of it shows the western and southwestern sides which could verify my speculation above.
It's all housing and playgrounds and monuments, not the sewage farm and level crossings - bloody useless media ^!

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