Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

[PHXPhlyer]

Sure. And the 'unhappiness' won't go away with the water (which might stay for weeks, the correspondent says) - probably the cars emerging from under water and unrepairable will be a big problem, too. Nice boost for Chinese industry, though, I guess .

You have to feel for those affected by the flooding (~550,000 inhabitants according to Wikipedia from 2010 census).
They are not going to see much help from Putin as he will claim that the war is taking up too much of Russia's resources.

PP

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Floods in Orenburg have reached 12 metres above datum. As best I can figure out from the latest videos, this equates to an elevation of 310 feet.
This would mean that the city sewage works and two of the three rail lines are under water by about 5-10 feet.

https://mstdn.social/@noelreports/112265083802484342

I think this video is here (but would appreciate correction)
https://www.google.com/maps/place/51%C2 ... ?entry=ttu

[probes]

You have to feel for those affected by the flooding (~550,000 inhabitants according to Wikipedia from 2010 census).
They are not going to see much help from Putin as he will claim that the war is taking up too much of Russia's resources.
PP

I would, too, had putin not done the same deliberately with Kakhovka, and sent ruz men capable of mainenance of infrastructure to UKR, to kill and torture and rape Ukraineans. That is nothing compared to the environmental catastrophe inflicted to Ukraine's land, causing destruction of habitats, death of animals and farm animals. The heavy metals in the soil, the soil ruined by glide bombs and bombs, mine fields to last for decades, destroyed infrastructure, polluted waters and marine life and toxic smoke in the skies.
And what for? For their unwillingness to belong to the ruz world, where the 'emergency forces' know a month ahead that there's going to be excessive meltwater, but do nothing to prepare the reservoires and make room for it beforehand.
If nothing stops putin, his people are bound to suffer, too. Not only the tens of thousands who die on UKR soil.
Instead of complaining about too little compensations for their properties they might demand the war to be stopped.

[probes]

Chancellor Scholz has expressed some uncharacteristically outspoken ideas:

Ich habe immer gesagt, dass Russland diesen Krieg nicht gewinnen darf. Und schnell war klar, dass dies kein kurzer Krieg werden würde. Wir werden noch lange Waffen und Munition an die Ukraine liefern müssen.

For people more fluent in German than me: Kanzler Olaf Scholz im Gespräch :„Wir werden noch lange Waffen liefern“
(AI-translatable, but it's never the same as original)

So. With Iran et al now 'retaliating' (the about 200 drones and missiles for Israel), which most probably is the beginning of waves of retailation from both sides, is it becoming increasingly clear it's not possible to keep the war on UKR soil? = put limits on agression?

Ukrainian pilots effectively attack Russian command post in Luhansk

[k3k3]

Ich habe immer gesagt, dass Russland diesen Krieg nicht gewinnen darf. Und schnell war klar, dass dies kein kurzer Krieg werden würde. Wir werden noch lange Waffen und Munition an die Ukraine liefern müssen.

Translated by me:

I have always said that Russia can not be allowed to win this war. And it rapidly became clear that this would not be a short war. We will have to supply weapons and munitions to Ukraine for a long time to come.

[tango15]

Ich habe immer gesagt, dass Russland diesen Krieg nicht gewinnen darf. Und schnell war klar, dass dies kein kurzer Krieg werden würde. Wir werden noch lange Waffen und Munition an die Ukraine liefern müssen.

Translated by me:

I have always said that Russia can not be allowed to win this war. And it rapidly became clear that this would not be a short war. We will have to supply weapons and munitions to Ukraine for a long time to come.

Sehr gute Übersetzung 10/10

[probes]

All foreign POWs claimed Russia promised not to deploy them to the front lines in Ukraine and that they would receive regular pay. However, only one said he received his salary, albeit not in full.
“If I returned to Somalia with the money I made serving, I would be a king. I swear to God. The only problem (is that the Russians) put us in the first line,” Muhammad told the Kyiv Independent after the press conference.

Foreigners fighting for ruz

The former infantryman was captured in combat near Marinka in Donetsk Oblast while fighting with the Russian army in Ukraine in early 2024, five months after he came to Moscow on a tourist visa to work and only four days after being deployed to the front lines.
Three months into working for $140 a month at a clothing factory, Muhammad saw a billboard with a Russian army advertisement. He described the one-year military contract terms as a “dream” — a $2,000 monthly salary, 14 times higher than back home, army service inside Russia, and Russian citizenship.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

One hopes so..

The package of US aid to Ukraine will be put to a vote this week and will pass with an overwhelming majority of votes, Chairman of the Intelligence Committee of the US House of Representatives, Mike Turner expects.

https://mstdn.social/@noelreports/112270699302028879

[PHXPhlyer]

One hopes so..

The package of US aid to Ukraine will be put to a vote this week and will pass with an overwhelming majority of votes, Chairman of the Intelligence Committee of the US House of Representatives, Mike Turner expects.

https://mstdn.social/@noelreports/112270699302028879

PP

[probes]

Kupiansk-Kreminna direction: major ruz operation is brewing according to UKR intel.
Tsassiv Yar in increasingly tense situation with ruz troops infiltrating to first blocks. Not secured yet, but it's bad.
Elsewhere just trying hard.
Big blasts in the Crimea and Luhansk - no information, suggestions are about a mil command centre (Luhansk) and marine personnel hub (the Crimea).

The Iran missile shower showed that the allies are capable of eliminating all kinds (of missiles). If Israel decides to hit back, Iran's defence capability will be known. Questions have been asked about why allies had not done the same for protecting UKR.

Floodwaters are at highest in Orenburgh and expected to recede these days, but further down they're still rising.

[Pinky the pilot]

Vielen danke, k3k3.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Questions have been asked about why allies had not done the same for protecting UKR.

Israel is about 4,000 sq miles of inhabited area, Ukraine is 233,000 sq miles.

The Iranian attack was a single event at a guessable time with the weapons having a long distance to travel over friendly-controlled skies.
The Iranian air force did not attempt to protect the inbound missiles.
Most weapons never even reached the Israeli border.


So whoever is asking "questions" needs avoiding in future.

[probes]

True. Still, more could be done? If there were 'political will', and if ruz didn't have nukes...

Drones, full article, made available by good and considerate people:
Drones are crowding Ukraine’s skies, largely paralyzing battlefield - Washington Post
By Siobhán O'Grady and Kostiantyn Khudov
link here

DONETSK REGION, Ukraine — So many drones patrol the skies over Ukraine’s front lines — hunting for any signs of movement — that Ukrainian and Russian troops have little ability to move on the battlefield without being spotted, and blown up.

Instead, on missions, they rush from one foxhole to another, hoping the pilots manning the enemy drones overhead are not skilled enough to find them inside. Expert drone operators, their abilities honed on the front, can stalk just a single foot soldier to their death, diving after them into hideouts and trenches.
The surge in small drones in Ukraine has turned the area beyond either side of the zero line — normally known as “the gray zone” — into “the death zone,” said Oleksandr Nastenko, commander of Code 9.2, a drone unit in Ukraine’s 92nd brigade. Those who dare to move day or night under the prying eyes of enemy drones “are dead immediately,” he said.

Cheap drones deployed in Ukraine have transformed modern warfare — and initially gave Ukrainian troops an advantage on a battlefield where they are perpetually outnumbered and outgunned. “This is the evolution of our survival,” Nastenko said.

But the Russians quickly caught on and began mass producing their own drones.
What followed was an overabundance of disposable, deadly drones and electronic warfare devices known as jammers that disrupt their flights. Most common are first-person-view, or FPV drones, typically controlled by a pilot wearing a headset and holding a remote controller.

“What we’re witnessing right now is blitzkrieg drone warfare,” said Andrew Coté, chief of staff at BRINC Drones, a Seattle-based drone company sending equipment to Ukraine. Coté said that drones in Ukraine are as game changing as tanks were in World War I. “It is pretty stalemate,” he said, “because if you are out in the open, you will be hunted.”

The technological advances probably have saved lives because drone pilots can work slightly farther from the zero — or contact — line than traditional infantry. But the saturation of drones, many with thermal cameras that work at night, has also shrunk the space where troops can move safely without being spotted — leading to high casualties and, in recent months, largely preventing either side from making major breakthroughs.

These conditions — combined with widespread minefields and shortages of ammunition and soldiers — now make it virtually impossible for Ukraine to retake swaths of territory as it did in 2022.

Russia, which has ample missile stocks and superior aviation power, capitalized on Ukraine’s ammunition shortages to seize the strategic eastern town of Avdiivka, and is now pushing to take more land. On Saturday, Ukraine’s commander in chief Oleksandr Syrsky warned that the situation on the eastern front had “significantly deteriorated.”

Ukraine will rely largely on drones to make it difficult for the Russians to press forward without putting expensive Russian fighting vehicles at risk whenever they move.
With large-scale drone production underway in Russia, Ukraine is racing to manufacture more than a million drones this year in hopes that it will prevent further Russian gains.

That task is turning even more urgent as Kyiv rapidly runs out of artillery and air defense ammunition from its Western partners, including the United States. For months, Republicans in Congress have blocked a $60 billion aid package proposed by President Biden.

Mykhailo Fedorov, Ukraine’s minister of digital transformation who is overseeing much of the country’s drone development, said Ukrainian drones have proved more accurate than artillery on some enemy targets. Still, artillery is a top need.

Earlier in Russia’s invasion, Ukrainian troops relied on artillery to destroy high-value targets such as Russian tanks and halt the Russian advance. Now, a severe shortage of 155-mm shells means that even if surveillance drones identify dozens of targets, few will be attacked.

“If we don’t get enough ammunition we will lose this war,” said Denys, 31, a drone commander in Ukraine’s 45th brigade who conducts surveillance deep inside Russian-controlled territory, and who is being identified only by his first name for security reasons.
In the meantime, “we are holding off their advance with FPV drones,” said Nepal, 32, a drone operator in the same brigade who, like others in this article, spoke on the condition he be identified only by his call sign, in keeping with military rules.
Ukraine has trained tens of thousands of soldiers like Nepal as drone pilots — a role that effectively did not exist when Russia invaded Crimea in 2014. In February, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky formalized the role of drone operators, establishing a new military branch called the Unmanned Systems Forces. “Repelling ground assaults is primarily the task of drones,” Zelensky said, acknowledging that the role of infantry soldiers has changed dramatically.

Ukrainian factories are producing a wide range of drone models, including ones that strike inside of Russia, and civilian volunteers are building FPVs themselves, following directions on YouTube.

Demand for drones is outpacing supply, Fedorov said. “Even if we meet all the needs that are formally there now … tomorrow there will be 10 more attack drone companies that also need drones,” he said.

The sheer number of drones means the battlefield is “almost transparent on both sides,” Nepal said, speaking from a makeshift base near the front line filled with parts for FPVs.

The devices, while fairly cheap to construct, are so strategically valuable that Nepal spends hours at his desk working to repair those seized from the Russians or fixing their own in hopes they can be used again.
Jamming systems, which disrupt drone frequencies and turn pilots’ screens to static, have made missions even more difficult. Sometimes, Nepal said, he must hit his targets “being almost blind.”

There is little besides jamming the signal that troops can do to protect themselves from a drone. Nepal often watches as Russian troops, holding assault rifles, try to save their lives by shooting down his explosive-laden drones before they crash into them.

Nepal’s commander, Fox, 32, said nonstop flights of Russian drones mean “everything is in danger.” Last fall, his troops could fly their drones freely, taking out Russian targets. Now, due to jamming, they often cannot move them much more than one mile before their screens go gray.

Stanislav, 35, who runs a drone unit in eastern Ukraine said that within a 10-kilometer radius controlled by his brigade and two others, there might be 100 reconnaissance and attack drones flying back-and-forth.

“The most challenging thing to figure out is if it’s Ukrainian or Russian drones,” Stanislav said. “When you see 10 drones in the sky there’s no way to understand if it’s our drone coming back after reconnaissance in Russian-controlled territory or if it’s their drone which is coming for reconnaissance or attacking Ukrainian-controlled territory.”

Although the jamming systems he uses, developed by Ukrainian company Kvertus, help disrupt Russian flights, they also hamper his own. He said he wishes there was a “magic button” to disrupt all signals, but with drones using an increasingly wide range of frequencies such technology is not available.
Russia knows how valuable drone pilots are to Ukraine and “are targeting our drone operators with aerial guided bombs and grad systems,” Fox said.

Nastenko compared the precision of an advanced pilot to that of a jeweler; Fox likened the skill set to that of a Formula 1 racecar driver.

On a recent mission, Nastenko’s team — working from a foxhole near the zero line — launched a Vampire drone toward Russian positions. The thermal camera combed over dead trees until it found Russian troops hiding on their side of the line. Then, the drone dropped its payload, igniting a massive explosion. A recording showed Russian troops’ bodies as they went flying.

The drone returned back to its base, where the Ukrainian troops loaded it up again and sent it back to kill any survivors. Meanwhile, another drone called a Mavic lingered overhead, monitoring Russian movements. Its camera picked up two disoriented soldiers running side by side in circles, their camouflage uniforms turned an eerie white under the thermal lens. Then they separated, looking for anywhere to hide. The Vampire drone homed in and fired again.

Intercepted communications showed that the attack, which took roughly an hour, killed eight Russian troops, Nastenko said.

Days later, troops in his unit embarked on another mission. While in the field, they came under an artillery attack, losing two of their own.

David L. Stern in Kyiv contributed to this report.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

In many ways, this is similar to the First World War, when observation balloons and those new-fangled aeroplanes, coupled with artillery, also made it difficult to move unobserved and untargetted.

The solution remains the same - change the paradigm, change the point of attack.
I have been saying this for years now, but I'm quite sure there are a huge number of Ukrainian officers saying the same thing.
The US and European governments are not coming up with the arms, so Ukraine will lose if it doesn't start attacking the things the suppliers have leaned on them not to.

Raids into Russia.
By drone, and by ground teams, overt and covert. Lots of them.
Hit the refineries. Hit the railways, hit the power stations, hit the pipelines.
Russia would be chaos in a month.

Of course, Kyiv might get nuked by putin in response.
Hard call.

[probes]

Of course, Kyiv might get nuked by putin in response.
Hard call.

Do you think it could actually happen? Deliberately, I mean, not by some "jumpy finger"? With putin knowing it'll be the end for him? And others doing nothing (the ones that could do, that is). Actually it isn't about just pressing a button, is it?

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Would a single nuke be the end for putin? Half the Russian population would probably give him a standing ovation.
Who would risk launching a response, given Russia has an awful lot of nukes left?
Where would they aim at? putin won't be guaranteed to be under the Kremlin when the nuke is launched at Kyiv.
If putin thinks he is definitely looking at his downfall with Russia in chaos, it might be worth the gamble to him.
I don't know, I'm not a megalomaniac or a psychiatrist.

WMD have never made sense in this war militarily, but they may do politically if putin thinks he is facing imminent dethronement.

The most pragmatic solution would probably be that done with the Kaiser after the First World War - give putin his nice house on the Black Sea till death.

..and all this mess is on Ukraine's allies. They have not kept their promises. Ukraine has run out of non-Russian attack options to win this.
Can it be fixed?
Well, it would need a huge effort that we haven't seen so far to get Ukraine equipped for defence now, and Summer and Fall conventional attacks.
It would also need the Ukrainians to come up with a much better offensive strategy than last year, and execute it successfully.
It would also need some indication that whoever wins the US Presidential Election is going to give supporting Ukraine a higher priority.
I wouldn't put money on any of those, nevermind all three.

I should perhaps add that I still think Russia has lost, because ultimately, without any of the above, there will be a long guerrilla war and Russia will withdraw after x years, like Afghanistan.
However, the Ukrainian leadership won't choose that option, and millions will die.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Syrskyi on the current situation on the ground
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/04/13/7451087/

The former Commander of the Ukrainian Southern Front (i.e. Kherson) has just been posted to head the training school.
I would guess this is to shake up training command in line with Syrskyi's statements, not a demotion.

[probes]

Interesting. With everybody claiming everything it's quite impossible to work out what's actually happening - ruz is trying hard for sure and gaining some ground here and there, UKR has hit a command centre in the Crimea, and the situation around Iran is complicated.
But, something out of the ordinary?


the text, just in case:
Four reasons why Russian Federation will lose to Ukraine, according to Feng Yujun:

The first is the level of resistance and national unity shown by Ukrainians, which has until now been extraordinary.

The second is international support for Ukraine, which, though recently falling short of the country’s expectations, remains broad.

The third factor is the nature of modern warfare, a contest that turns on a combination of industrial might and command, control, communications and intelligence systems. One reason Russia has struggled in this war is that it is yet to recover from the dramatic deindustrialisation it suffered after the disintegration of the Soviet Union.
The final factor is information. When it comes to decision-making, Vladimir Putin is trapped in an information cocoon, thanks to his having been in power so long. The Russian president and his national-security team lack access to accurate intelligence. The system they operate lacks an efficient mechanism for correcting errors. Their Ukrainian counterparts are more flexible and effective.

His conclusion is as follows:

Russia will be forced to withdraw from all occupied Ukrainian territories, including Crimea.

Russia's nuclear capability is no guarantee of success. Feng Yujun gives the example of the United States, which left Vietnam, Korea, and Afghanistan with no less nuclear potential than the Russian Federation has today.
Kyiv has proven that Moscow is not invincible, so a ceasefire under the "Korean" scenario is ruled out.

The war is a turning-point for Russia. It has consigned Putin’s regime to broad international isolation. He has also had to deal with difficult domestic political undercurrents, from the rebellion by the mercenaries of the Wagner Group and other pockets of the military — for instance in Belgorod — to ethnic tensions in several Russian regions and the recent terrorist attack in Moscow. These show that political risk in Russia is very high. Mr Putin may recently have been re-elected, but he faces all kinds of possible black-swan events.

After the war, Ukraine will have the chance join both the EU and NATO, while Russia will lose its former Soviet republics because they see Putin's aggression there as a threat to their sovereignty and territorial integrity.
According to Feng Yujun, the war, meanwhile, has made Europe wake up to the enormous threat that Russia’s military aggression poses to the continent’s security and the international order, bringing post-cold-war EU-Russia detente to an end. Many European countries have given up their illusions about Mr Putin’s Russia.
Source: The Economist

And an article on the bloody FAB1500, link here


P.S. the price for certificates of medical exemption for men around Moscow has doubled compared to a year before . Around a million roubles now (10 k €).

[tango15]

I would agree 100% with Prof. Feng's observations. I chat to Ukrainians almost daily by keyboard, and despite the deprivations, they are determined not to let Putin win. One lady I know has parents living in Donetsk. The only way she can contact them is by encrypted text messages. She cannot talk to them on the phone, because all phone calls are monitored and any discussion about anything even vaguely derogatory (eg shortage of food), results in a visit from a gauleiter. (Definite shades of the Soviet Union there).

I'd like to think the second part would be the case, but I'm not so sure.

Russia will be forced to withdraw from all occupied Ukrainian territories, including Crimea. By whom, and how? Putin will not give it up voluntarily. After more than two years of war, and the Wagner incident apart - and we all know what happened there - Putin considers himself impregnable. Mention the ICC or ICJ to him and you might just see his face crack a smile.

I know there's a lot of back-door diplomacy taking place - "Look Mr Putin, we're not sending lots of weapons to Ukraine," but whether this will ever amount to anything remains to be seen.

[probes]

Russia will be forced to withdraw from all occupied Ukrainian territories, including Crimea.[/b] By whom, and how?

The Deus ex Machina? Like biblical floods - as another dam burst?


More by Newsweek: Putin Has a Dam Problem

Emergency forces have been sent out, though (the singing below is something I personally like, meditative - well, in a church at least):