Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Germany gave a whole load more last week, and it looks like M1 Abrams training for the Ukrainians starts in Germany this week, with frontline availability around August.

It looks to me like the West wishes to provide Ukraine with the ability for a second attack after this one, say September and October, before the late Fall rasputitsa (mud season).

I expect the current attack will end by late June at the latest.

If that attack causes Crimean supply lines to be substantially cut, and with all the Leopard 1s arriving for the second attack too, Russia may well decide to pull out in August.
Certainly that will be the wish, but the Ukrainians will be well set up for a second attack anyway.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

I'm still looking for clues that the counterattack has already started on the flanks, in northern Luhansk in the Kupyansk area, and in southern Kherson.
There was a blizzard of fires showing up on the NASA fire satellite 2 days ago, then very little since. They may have just been preparatory strikes. But, if those purported strikes enabled a breakthrough of the Russian front line (where it is weakest), then we shouldn't expect too many more. The Ukrainians could now be rolling forward 30-40 km behind the lines There's little deeper defences in those areas, and the Russian REMFs have likely b#ggered off sharpish. The Ukes wouldn't want to destroy deeper Russian POL and ammo dumps, they'd rather capture them.
And if I was the Ukrainians, I would attack whilst Zelenskyi was off around Europe glad-handing, because it's what putin wouldn't do, and so wouldn't expect the Ukes to do.

Or it could be nothing.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

RT has scrubbed references to the jet shootdowns.
If they happened in 2 minutes, it makes it unlikely to be partisans / SF with MANPADs on the ground, I'd say. Too difficult to be tracking all the targets.
That means it's either Ukrainian Patriot from the border, or a Red-on-Red from their own AD.
If it happened just after minutes 00 or 30, then it could well be someone loaded up the wrong IFF codes to either their AD or their aircraft.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

All you need to know about morale and loyalty in the Russian Army.



Now we know that “Svoikh ne brosayem” - the famous "We don't leave our own", is in fact an incomplete translation.

Svoikh ne brosayem ne ograbiv ikh snachala - "We don't leave our own...without robbing them first!"

You can just imagine the Russian movies that are going to come out of this war.
'Leaving Private Ivan'
'Band of Bastards'
'Invasion of the Washing-machine-snatchers'

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

24 new fires in the southern Kherson region just appeared, not the same places as a couple of days ago, except the one near the tip of the Kinburn Spit.
They are generally 9 miles in from the Dnipro, the last lot were mostly 5 miles.
If the Ukes had sent a moderate force across near the Antonovsky Bridge, then this would indicate an expanding bridgehead.
If the counterattack hasn't started, then this would seem to be preparatory bombardment for such a bridgehead.
There are new strikes on the Ukrainian side, about 5 miles north of the Bridge, which may be Russian strikes on a Ukrainian staging area.

Advancing through the Oleshky Sands area would be a good idea for the Ukrainians.
I have seen a couple of reports that the Russian civilian administration have just abandoned Skadovsk, which is on the Black Sea south of there.


There are extensive new fires in northern Luhansk, in the wooded areas between Zarichne and Kreminna, last shown as the front line on the Ukrainian side.

None of the above tells us anything definite at all, but there's nothing else to go on so I chuck it out there for your musings.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Sunset now in Ukraine;
couple more fires on both sides of the lines in Northern Luhansk.
The Russians are fairly blatting all the remaining bits of Bakhmut that Ukraine holds.
Maybe Willy Pete again.

None of the recent fires anywhere appear to be on Russian fortification locations.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

No new fires.
A couple of videos of the destruction of Russian artillery have emerged which I have been able to tie in to fire locations.
So, on balance, I think the counterattack is still at the preparation stage, but I'm still guessing.

Russia launched a missile strike on Kyiv with 18 missiles, including 6 hypersonic Khinzals.
Video has emerged of an intensive AD response. It would appear all the missiles arrived within a 2 minute window.
This is new from the Russians.
Ukrainians claim all destroyed. Evidence of at least one Khinzal shot down.
Russians claim to have hit a Patriot battery. No evidence provided.

The Russia media have given up on evidence. None of it appears to be good

[prospector]

https://www.rt.com/russia/576395-ukrain ... _campaign=

Was it not suggested in this forum that these deaths were caused by Russian operatives?



Ukraine’s top spy admits agents murdered Russian public figures
Military intel boss Kirill Budanov has claimed that his service “got” multiple high-profile individuals
Ukraine’s top spy admits agents murdered Russian public figures
FILE PHOTO. Kirill Budanov. © AFP / Sergei Supinsky
Ukrainian military intelligence (GUR) chief General Kirill Budanov has claimed responsibility for assassinating “many” Russian public figures. The spy boss made the bombshell admission in an interview with Ukrainian blogger Sergey Ivanov on T

[Pontius Navigator]

To achieve a 2 minute window required a very sophisticated launch plan to coordinate between naval and air forces and probably ground too.

This was a cold war question too. Would the Sovs go for simultaneous launch or simultaneous strike? On the latter, missiles targeted on far west of UK would be launched 2 minutes or more earlier thus giving Eastern bomber airfields an additional 2 minutes warning.

As a bit of deviation, a friend of mine is soon to publish a book that explores this amongst other scenarios.

[Pontius Navigator]

https://www.rt.com/russia/576395-ukrain ... _campaign=

Was it not suggested in this forum that these deaths were caused by Russian operatives?

Ukraine’s top spy admits agents murdered Russian public figures
Military intel boss Kirill Budanov has claimed that his service “got” multiple high-profile individuals
Ukraine’s top spy admits agents murdered Russian public figures
FILE PHOTO. Kirill Budanov. © AFP / Sergei Supinsky
Ukrainian military intelligence (GUR) chief General Kirill Budanov has claimed responsibility for assassinating “many” Russian public figures. The spy boss made the bombshell admission in an interview with Ukrainian blogger Sergey Ivanov on T

I don't believe he said murder. He did admit to killing. Is there a subtle distinction between murder and assassination? Is the latter a legitimate extra-judicial sanction?

In some cases, where the principal was injured, drivers and others have died. Is that legitimate collateral deaths or murder?

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Northern Luhansk
Many new fires in the forests SW of Kreminna. Looks like the Russians are really blatting the Ukes here.
There's a fire on the Svatove-Starobilsk road, about midway, and a big fire just on the eastern outskirts of Starobilsk. There appears to be a big transmitting tower at the latter place.
This is about max range for HIMARS / M270.
More fires in the woods just NE of Kupyansk, on the eastern bank of the Oskil.
The videos being released by the Ukrainians other than Bakhmut are now pretty thoroughly edited to remove geolocatable references, but I am reasonably sure from the microgeography that the Ukrainians are hitting Russian defences in this woodland, which appears to have Russian trenches in it. I think the fires are when individual small ammo/POL dumps exploding, or when individual tracked vehicles explode with all their ammo.

Southern Kherson
This also fits with the fires that continue to pop up daily in the Oleshky Sands area of southern Kherson.
Again, I've seen videos which I can't locate exactly, but I think I can pin down to within a few hundred metres, which fit with the explosive destruction of SPG videos and NASA-registered fires in this area

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Anyone making an effective contribution to military action is a legitimate wartime target as per the Geneva Conventions.
Making up random definitions like high-profile or public figures is irrelevant.
Assassination is likewise a non-legal term.
Whether injuries or deaths to others are reasonable collateral damage depends on whether the country doing the killing made an effort to avoid injury or death to uninvolved civilians,
assuming they had the capability to do so, balanced against the effect on military action by killing the target.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Ukraine now officially denying that the Patriot system in Kyiv was destroyed.
Which, given how the system is dispersed, doesn't really tell us anything. It could still have had a component or two damaged.
Here's an amusing explanation of Kinzhal (NATO: Killjoy) hypersonic missile vs Patriot.



Many more fires just appeared in the Oleshky Sands area, and some further up on the south bank of the Dnipro, Ukes hitting the Russians.

Also quite a few more in the woods NE of Kupyansk, and in the woods W of Kreminna.

It's possible the front line isn't where the western pundits think it is in the Kreminna woods, and in fact it's the Ukes hitting the Russians.

Sunset in 3 hours. It's almost a New Moon.

..and it's still very quiet with all the usual bloggers/tweeters.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Fires in Oleshky, near Kupyansk, and near Kreminna, on the Russian side continue to increase in both number and size

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Russians now targeting the bridge in Ivanivske that connects the Ukrainians to their troops still in the SW corner of Bakhmut.
Which means they now don't think they are going to capture Bakhmut, or they'd have done it 9 months ago.
Either that or they don't intend moving on any further than Bakhmut.
The Russians continue to retreat on the flanks, whilst Wagner continues to slowly level every last building then advance into the rubble in the city itself.

[Pontius Navigator]

Quis custodiet ipsos custodes

Or who has my back?

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

I think Wagner's plan is to complete the capture of Bakhmut, then hand over to the Russian regulars to defend it.
I've been reading that Wagner are neither trained nor equipped for defence, just assault.
It may become a question as to whether they can complete the capture before they get surrounded, as you point out.
This would explain why they are suddenly going for that bridge.


The number of locations on fire continues to increase in all three general areas mentioned above. Sunset in half an hour.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

A long, detailed piece in the Kyiv Independent on where the Counterattack may be directed, and the Russian defences.

https://kyivindependent.com/where-does- ... ive-lines/

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

I judge the ground to now be suitable everywhere for the counterattack. This guy thinks so too



The Ukes are now waiting on three possible things.

1. Delivery of western equipment.
What seems to be missing from the promises made earlier in the year is the Swedish stuff, Leopard 2s and CV-90s
It's an entire brigade out of the proposed 8/9 new ones.
I've just found this, shown today.

So the Swedish-equipped brigade appears to now be in Ukraine, and completed basic training.
They now need...

2. Integration training
This is needed to allow all the disparate groups and equipment to operate as larger scale units.
I've seen anything from a week to a month as the time required for this.
Since the Swedish group appears to be the final unit, when this group is integrated the counterattack can commence.
Based on the rough timings available, that could be now, or any time up to a month from now, assuming the Ukes have a plan for the new 8/9 brigades that doesn't rely on, say, all the 100 Leopard 1s arriving.

3. Strategic and Tactical advantage.
This is a combination of Intelligence, Preparatory strikes, and.....


...Surprise!!

Again, this could be ready as of now, or might also require another 2/3 weeks from now.

Given the Ukes have a superiority in night vision/thermal equipment, I (and just about everyone else) expect them to attack at night.
A New Moon would be preferable...and the next one is on Friday.

Surprise will best be obtained by destroying Russian comms, disguising where the main attack is, and at a strategic level attacking when the Russians don't think they are able to.
The only real way to achieve this is to pretend they are not ready when they are.

[prospector]

""Anyone making an effective contribution to military action is a legitimate wartime target as per the Geneva Conventions.""

Would that definition apply to the politicians/Presidents/Prime Ministers i/c of the countries donating many millions worth of armaments, and using their countries/troops to train Ukrainian troops? Or would that not be classed as making an effective contribution to military action?

https://www.rt.com/news/576463-un-ukrai ... aign=Email

""In a recent interview, Budanov declared: “We’ve been killing Russians and we will keep killing Russians anywhere on the face of this world until the complete victory of Ukraine.” UNIAN, for its part, has run a controversial poll on its official Telegram channel “with the main question about who should be the next after Daria Dugina, Vladlen Tatarsky (both killed in terrorist attacks) and Zakhar Prilepin (injured in terrorist attacks),” Nebenzia’s letter relates. All the Russian public figures listed are believed to have been targeted in attacks orchestrated by Kiev’s intelligence services.""

Is not what is good for the goose also good for the gander?