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I've only seen videos showing explosions, reportedly at Dzhankoi, and that in the DM article showing the wreckage of one.
Audio would indicate that the drones causing the explosions were the same type as the one in the video.
Not verifiable that the crashed drone shown was at Dzhankoi.
No secondaries seen, no verifiable geolocation.
The Ukes have hit the rail yards at Dzhankoi successfully before several times.
The transport of cruise missiles by rail through Dzhankoi is probably routine. Rail to Donetsk, road to Melitopol, rail again through Dzhankoi to the naval base at Sevastopol.

I think this is the first time a Russian army critic of any stature has criticised Putin directly.

Reports emerging that China has been shipping a huge number of drones to Russia.

Fox3WheresMyBanana wrote: ↑

Tue Mar 21, 2023 1:13 pm

I think this is the first time a Russian army critic of any stature has criticised Putin directly.

I wonder what floor Igor lives on?

Quite.
Basement Level 4 if he has any sense.

'Fell up 4 flights of stairs to his death'.

He's got to have a really good insurance policy, perhaps Vlad foolishly put the instructions to down MH17 in writing.

.

He either knows something we don't, or he's an idiot.

Or, as so often in modern Russia, both.

Interesting, for me anyway, bit of archive from just before the start of the war.
Fighter pilots b#ggering off to some God-forsaken strip in the middle of nowhere in the middle of the night.
Maybe, as we did, sleeping 8 to a Nissen hut with concrete floors, and a bucket of coal to bung in the stove in the centre.
Still, better than a missile strike at home plate keeping you warm.

A good, long thread on current problems and strategy for the Ukes.
Click through for all of it.



Worth remembering Frederick the Great's Dictum "He who defends everything, defends nothing."
The Ukes have to build up a reserve for a decisive Spring offensive once rasputitsa is over.

The Russians are still trying to advance through rasputitsa...

Fox3; Any idea what the title of the song in part 2 of post 3873 is?

Those Ukrainian Farmers are having a pretty good 'harvest' it seems. Wonder what the price of scrap steel is over there?

I don't know that particular Ukrainian song.
There are playlists on Youtube, but I don't have the time to hunt through them.
Everyone and his dog over there is releasing remixes of traditional Ukrainian folk songs in the style of, or with a twist from, their particular music genre.
I've heard a Death Metal Version of their equivalent of 'Greensleeves'. It's what the public wants!

I reported back in June that the price of scrap had dropped so low that the farmers had stopped fetching the wrecks. Showed how much hardware the Russians had lost.

I'm guessing that's still the case, as I've just seen video of the first trainload of T54/55s crossing Russia.

I would think the tractor drivers of the Ukrainian Farmed Forces are only bothering with damaged-repairables, or stuff that happens to be in the way of their normal farming activities.
Now would be a good time to shift the latter, as the ground dries up enough to drag them out of the mud and still have low friction, before the ground gets too hard and bumpy.

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/sta ... 96352?s=20
What next, pikes and swords?

The Rooskies driving those T54/55s will be having fun in a month or two
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fr0RXccWcAA ... name=small

Zelenskyi took another trip to Bakhmut for a medal ceremony.



Stopped off for a coffee at a gas station on the way home, as you do. Still less than 10 miles from the Russian positions*, not as you or I do.



Has to be a huge raised middle digit to the inadequacies of the Russian military.

*I have geolocated it.

Very Henry Vth. What's next, see him walking along a trench?

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Doubt it.
There's a fine line between bravery and stupidity, but a trench would seem to be on the stupid side of it.
Everywhere he went has presumably not been under bombardment yet, but there would probably be a fair chance of any trench just getting random bombardment.
And I'm sure this takes a lot of time out of a day, him still having a country to run and hopefully generous world leaders to meet. I believe the Japanese sent their PM yesterday. Perhaps his next outing will be to the first big place captured after the Uke Spring Offensive starts..wherever that may be.

Prince William in Eastern Poland also, thanking the troops training the Ukrainians.

Fox3WheresMyBanana wrote: ↑

Wed Mar 22, 2023 11:38 pm

And I'm sure this takes a lot of time out of a day, him still having a country to run and hopefully generous world leaders to meet.

The boost to the morale of the troops, the workers in the shop, and just about everyone who receives the selfies being sent to them, will be well worth the time it took out of his day.

PP

Oh, agree completely, but he doesn't need to do it every day. The idea that the President may just stroll in anywhere, anytime, is enough.
He got a promise of $500m in aid out of the Japanese PM yesterday. That's a good day's work too.

Prince William in Eastern Poland also, thanking the troops training the Ukrainians.

Picture in the Telegraph, woman laughing with the POW, airborne troop next looking on with a WTF expression. Man next, possibly RAF, stoic renta crowd rather be somewhere else expression.

I was once ic a renta crowd group for the CinC's farewell retirement tour. Wg Cdr steps forward to introduce me, CinC preemts and greets "Hello Roy...."

Post meet, Boss says "why didn't you tell me"
"you never asked".

Weather / ground report.

A summary of recent font line videos indicates there are still seriously muddy tracks in most locations.

Weather for the week ahead is around 14C (60F) degrees daytime highs, with light to moderate showers. The ground may slowly improve if not subject to much use.
The week after is light showers at worst on only a couple of days, and temperatures over 20 (65F) degrees.
The mud will start drying rapidly.

Strategic SWAG*

My best guess at the earliest a Ukrainian counterattack will come - April 21st. I think mid May is looking solid based on long range forecasts.
The Ukrainians have every incentive to go early from a strategic viewpoint.
The two controlling factors remain:
1) State of Ground
2) Readiness of newly trained forces with the latest western kit.

Based on what to me look like probing attacks recently, I still think that a 'left hook', heading east to the north of Svatove, and an assault south towards Tokmak, are the likely directions.
I do not know, as previously, whether both will be main thrusts, or one main and the other diversionary. I would expect the Ukes don't want the Russians to know either, so the gen we get in the early days will either not reveal the plan, or portray a false one.
The wild card could be a big night heliborne assault to grab key points with a main thrust to follow, cf Operation Market Garden. The isthmus entry points to Crimea could be possible targets.
I would expect extensive SF actions to disable Russian comms and transport, especially rail.

*Scientific Wild-Assed Guess.