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So, Russians have captured 4 settlements in a few hours - this is the most successful Russian attack of the war!

Advanced Staff College
Final Exam.

1. Russia's progress in the Ukraine war was slow because

a) It was planned that way by putin from the beginning
b) NATO launched a proxy war with near unlimited resources
c) Russia wished to protect life and preserve property
d) Russia has a sh!t army led by corrupt morons

Hint: only one of these answers has not appeared in Russian State Media

The Russian rebels got their main battle tank off of eBay,

as you do

The Ukrainian official position

I've ID'd this video at the Russian border control post. It definitely seems to be a tank, heading east a mere 300m from the border.



Current rumour control is that the Russian rebels have advanced up to 8km into Russia, and appear to be remaining rather than pulling out after a couple of hours.
They may yet fade away when it gets dark.
The Russians seem to be sending the army in from some distance away. There are reports of GRAD rocket fire.
Scraps of cellphone video show no vehicles or troops, but there are the sounds of both automatic rifles and heavier explosions, either mortars or tanks I would say.



A quick look at this area shows only 5 access routes, if the rebels can seize Grayvoron.
That means a front of 13 miles protected by rivers to defend, occupying 60 square miles.
The Russian army will need to charge down the roads, cross the rivers, or attempt a heliborne assault, all of which they have shown themselves to be spectacularly bad at.
I doubt they have their usual option of flattening every building in the area with artillery.

OK, latest on the Swedish-equipped brigade. Passing through Fürth train station (Nuremberg, Bavaria), reportedly today, heading east. I've confirmed location and direction.
Looks like they've travelled by train all the way from Sweden.
I believe they enter Ukraine around Medyka (poland), west of Lviv.



So the main assault won't be going in for a week or two yet, assuming this is gen.

Belgorod Update.

The Russian Volunteer Corps (symbol: Sword on a shield) have acquired some Russian army kit.
From other video, it was parked in a maintenance bay, probably at the border post.



It seems they have not occupied Grayvoron, as the Russian authorities say they are helping civilians evacuate.
However, there also reports that they have occupied the Grayvoron police HQ, and have blown at least one bridge (which was what I indicated might be the plan a couple of posts ago).

The separatists have reportedly dug in around Kozinka and Glotovo.
There were reports they were in Gora-Podol too. Don't know if they are in fact digging in here, or have pulled back to Glotovo.


The other bunch of separatists are called the Freedom of Russia Legion (symbol: White clenched fist).
Many reports are confusing the two.

They appear to be involved in up to three more border settlements, all four being along about 40 miles of the border near Kharkiv.

Russian helos and fixed wing aircraft seen in the area. One helo reported lost nearby, but apparently unrelated.

I've seen two videos of Russian citizens in the area reporting the bomb shelters in their buildings are rusted and locked. They are not happy bunnies.

Interesting little twist...

https://www.thefirstnews.com/article/ov ... years-6714

Maybe a bit of history would not go astray in this forum.

Over 100,000 slaughtered with axes, pitchforks, scythes and knives: The Wołyń massacre started 76 years ago today and lasted for two years
HISTORY
STUART DOWELL JULY 11, 2019


""Polish victims of a massacre committed by the Ukrainian Insurgent Army in the village of Lipniki, Wołyń, 1943.
Public domain
Today marks 76 years since the coordinated attack by Ukrainian nationalists on 99 Polish towns and villages in Wołyń.

Between 1943 and 1945, members of the Ukrainian Insurgent Army massacred thousands of Poles throughout Wołyń, a region that was in Nazi-occupied Poland and is part of present-day Ukraine.

Throughout the period, it is estimated that around 100,000 Poles died at the hands of Ukrainian nationalists. As part of retaliatory actions, Poles killed between 15,000 and 20,000 Ukrainians.""

""The killings were directly linked with radical Ukrainian nationalist Stepan Bandera’s Organization of Ukrainian Nationalists and its military arm, the Ukrainian Insurgent Army.""

Breaking News:
UN has acknowledged the Belgorod People's Republic, and have offered them the seat on the UN Security Council formerly belonging to the USSR



Confusion reigns as to whether the Belgorodian People's Front or the People's Front of Belgorod holds sway

I'm finding it very difficult to understand this 'infiltration' into actual Russian territory. If the group/s are trying to aid the Ukrainian efforts, surely the attacks would have been better directed at the 'rear' of the Russian structure and the supply routes actually IN Ukraine? Apart from distracting the Russian effort (which the alternative would also do), what possible benefit can they hope to achieve by such a small and directed advance?

If this is true, might this be the reason for the penetration? Is it a raid rather than an assault?


The imagery in the tweet is from 2016 rather than this action

Boac wrote: ↑

Tue May 23, 2023 7:05 am

I'm finding it very difficult to understand this 'infiltration' into actual Russian territory. If the group/s are trying to aid the Ukrainian efforts, surely the attacks would have been better directed.... actually IN Ukraine?

That might be the point, they are Russians and their aim is different from the UKr.

That might be the point

Yes, but what is that? Anyone worked it what the 'aim' is - Fox?

Start the insurrection?
That would be consistent with going into Russia rather than the Donbas.

That clip of the locals trying to break into the bomb shelter is hilarious. 'Carry on Sheltering'? Not a jemmy, boltcutters, or even a hacksaw in sight. That could have been filmed in the 1970s.

The fire in Voronezh is significant, and a little worrying for the Russians, I imagine. Lots of defence-related activities take place there.

Start the insurrection?

A bit like trying to light a cornfield with a match! I remain unconvinced and puzzled and hope for a good result, whatever it might be.

The main assumption about the attack is that it's either:
1) a cover for something else (like the comms equipment theft)
2) or part of a general phase of preparation for the counterattack

or, of course, both.

The retired western generals tend to go for 2).

Either way, the Russians are running around getting more disorganised.

I have seen nothing new from the area this morning.
The Russians are not talking about it on official media
The NASA fire satellite isn't much use for a week due to the weather.

I read that the Voronezh fire is a plastics factory.

Russian media is talking about the incursion as a raid, in the past tense, and the Russian MoD says a "cleanup operation" is in progress. It's released a video showing the rebels being destroyed, but most of that footage has been geolocated (I checked it) as inside Ukraine, and this matches with some fires detected on the Ukrainian side of the lines. Only one bit is inside Russia, and that's of the border post being shelled, and no people or moving vehicles are visible.

So, there's no evidence either way that the rebels are still there, and no evidence of any of them being killed or captured yet, but as usual there are (official) Russian lies.

Video has emerged (which again I have checked the geolocation of) of the rebels in both Kozinka and Glotovo yesterday, apparently unopposed.

Here's the latest from Rumour Control