Ops-Normal.org

A bit late to the show but I would point that ISIS attacks aim on entertainment venues like they did in Paris or in Brussels Airport rather than military or economic targets which fit the profile of the attack here. On the other hand Ukraine has no reason to waste resources to run an attack like that.

I think Putin will look to find the flimsiest link to somehow implicate Ukraine.

If one of the terrorists has a second cousin removed living in Ukraine, the Russians will claim that is proof that Ukraine had a hand in planning the attack.

ISIS have just published a picture of four attackers taken just before the attack.
The clothing of two of them reportedly matches the clothing of the two of those pictured being arrested by the FSB.
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/03/23/7447817/

I've found this image of one of the alleged shooters being arrested by the FSB.
https://mstdn.social/@noelreports/112144644557508727
Could be a match for the guy on the right in the previous photo - note the grey collared shirt, white skin, hair off the ears. All the features that can be matched do match.

I therefore suspect there were only ever four, but the Russians changed that to 10 so they could then magically capture another 6 allegedly headed for Ukraine.

I think Putin will look to find the flimsiest link to somehow implicate Ukraine.

Apparently doing precisely that it seems. Claims that when apprehended, some of the alleged shooters were headed for Ukraine.

I do wonder though, just how many ordinary Russian Citizens will swallow that.

I'm cynical enough to believe 'quite a few.'

14 Tu-95MS with bombs, plus drones.
But ruz is the victim! Brutal attack on concert hall!! Must have been Ukraine!
Poor ISIS, they want their glory and are posting evidence, but what's evidence for putin?

UKR destroyed the Sevastopol comm centre for the fleet and there were explosions 'around' some airfields - possibly preventing more missiles and drones to UKR, as their attack was before ruz started theirs.

As for the ISIS guys - one can be sure some will be caught and will tell what required.

I see the ISIS guys are from Tajikistan (at least that's what we're being told), so I can't help thinking that they've been put up to this, in order to give His Putiness yet another reason (if one were needed) to attack Ukraine. It's ludicrous to suggest that they were heading to Ukraine. How the hell were they going to get there from Moscow - drive? The MO seems very similar to the one applied in Moscow, when explosives, basically fertiliser, were found in the basement of a Moscow apartment block, which he blamed on the Chechens, and used it as an excuse to invade Chechnya.

Putin is beginning to worry me. He seems to be increasingly unhinged and there appears to be no-one to stop him. The comparisons with Hitler are chilling.

Impressive fireworks.

And these forces are supposed to have sent 4 guys to burn down a concert hall? And escape to UKR - provided, on the long way "home", there's fuel available in petrol stations when needed .
2 landing ships, Yamal and Azov, were hit, but no data how badly, yet.

tango15 wrote: ↑

Sun Mar 24, 2024 11:34 am

Putin is beginning to worry me. He seems to be increasingly unhinged and there appears to be no-one to stop him. The comparisons with Hitler are chilling.

Hitler didn't have nukes, of course, though one wonders if the total destruction with the 'conventional warfare' is any less bad. Thinking of the enormous craters of the glide bombs - when will the normal soil be regenerated there?
His Putiness will fall, not necessarily from a balcony or window, when the nearest and dearest decide he's become too weak.

P.S. re: the video - interesting, how people just "observe" the explosions, no rush to the shelters - being fairly certain UKR won't target residential areas?

More detail here:

And, ruz accidentally sank their own ship during Baltic Navy drills.

Number of operational Ropucha Class in the Black Sea Fleet: 0

This is one means of resupplying Crimea gone.
The damaged ones will not be repaired this year.

The Kerch bridges remain.
I do not think Russia has the truck capability to resupply Crimea and the rest of the Ukraine frontline if the Russian railways are taken out, or if the Kerch bridges are taken out.

If I were the Ukrainians, I would be planning a series of strikes and attacks to disable the Russian rail system.
This would best be done not long before the first big ground counterattacks go in in mid/late June.
How much earlier depends on how intensively the Ukes can carry out the anti-rail campaign.
There are three possible approaches:
1)Take out everything they can reach in one night just before the counterattacks.
2)Take out a series of key points over several nights
3)Take out sites in a complex sequence that causes even more problems for repair.

With all these approaches, it would be good strategy to keep a few attacks in reserve to stop any workarounds/reroutes the Russians come up with.

Modern rail systems have several critical elements which, if lost, can hugely reduce or stop traffic completely.
I won't list them for obvious reasons, but the one publicly-known one is the trackside relay boxes.
It is not necessary to blow up every locomotive, marshalling yard, and bridge, as was necessary during wars up to the 1980s.

probes wrote: ↑

Sun Mar 24, 2024 12:37 pm

Impressive fireworks.

And these forces are supposed to have sent 4 guys to burn down a concert hall? And escape to UKR - provided, on the long way "home", there's fuel available in petrol stations when needed .
2 landing ships, Yamal and Azov, were hit, but no data how badly, yet.

tango15 wrote: ↑

Sun Mar 24, 2024 11:34 am

Putin is beginning to worry me. He seems to be increasingly unhinged and there appears to be no-one to stop him. The comparisons with Hitler are chilling.

Hitler didn't have nukes, of course, though one wonders if the total destruction with the 'conventional warfare' is any less bad. Thinking of the enormous craters of the glide bombs - when will the normal soil be regenerated there?
His Putiness will fall, not necessarily from a balcony or window, when the nearest and dearest decide he's become too weak.

P.S. re: the video - interesting, how people just "observe" the explosions, no rush to the shelters - being fairly certain UKR won't target residential areas?

My contacts in Ukraine tell me that not everyone rushes to the shelters any more. Many people apparently stay where they are and hope, or in the case of older people in particular, have reached the point where they no longer care. The Metro stations, once crowded during an attack, are not as full as they used to be. Equally, the Ukrainians have become better at defending their airspace and the damage, if a missile does reach a city, seems to be relatively minimal. The accuracy of them, as we have seen many times, is also questionable.

I would hope that the Poles would call the Russian Ambassador into the foreign ministry tomorrow, and ask WTH the Russians are doing sending missiles across their airspace, and to infuriate him/her even more, remind them that Poland is a member of NATO

He seems to be increasingly unhinged and there appears to be no-one to stop him.

I don't think he is unhinged. He is being rational based on the position he's in and the information he has, plus past experience.
I think he appears to be losing it, but what has actually happened is a steady movement towards increasing violence and decreasing care for anyone else, which has been held in check for some time due to needing to appear sober and careful for the election.

Naturally there is no one to stop him, as all autocrats have such people eliminated as soon as they appear, or are suspected.

I think there are 5 factors at play here.
Firstly, the prospect of the West decreasing support for Ukraine.
Secondly, the prospect of his armed forces hanging on until that happens.
Thirdly, how much the reports given to him actually match reality. Remember than he never ventures out these days - 'bunker mentality', except he isn't paranoid because everyone IS out to get him.
Fourthly, whether those within reach of him feel they are at less risk of death and more chance of profit and power with putin in charge or not.
Lastly, his own condition - health, and life expectancy.

Deteriorations in any of these will increase the violence and immediacy of his actions, and the risk of him actually 'losing it'.

Plus, we do not know if anything were better without putin.
But if ISIS-whatever really has decided now is the time for them... dunno. Will the strongmen admit it's too much for them? ISIS isn't UKR to focus on mil objects.

Ukraine Moves a Step Closer to F-16s as Kyiv's 'Top Guns' Graduate

Exceptional video by a bystander of a Ukrainian drone making final corrections then hitting the Ryazan oil refinery on March 13.

https://mstdn.social/@noelreports/112151798293292863

I guess the terms "drone" and "UAV" have collided a bit. To me, that's big enough to be a UAV, I consider a drone to be more the small quadcopter type of thing.

The terms seem to be used as synonyms by just about everyone, including Ukrainian officials.
The media, of course, just as they describe anything green as a tank, call anything flying a drone.
I can find no attempt at defining the two differently that doesn't contradict itself.
Part of the problem is that we do not know how each aircraft is controlled, or whether multiple means of control are possible.

Satellite photos...
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/03/24/7447931/
...and ground level photos of the claimed Sevastopol Navy Comms centre.
https://mstdn.social/@noelreports/112150692810474471

Looks totalled. Don't fancy the chances of anyone who was inside.

Only question is, did they hit the right building?

putin made a speech today blaming NATO for starting a war "in the centre of Europe", i.e. Yugoslavia, 25 years ago today.
This is kindergarten level propaganda.
Wonder where this is leading..not.

tango15 wrote: ↑

Sun Mar 24, 2024 3:17 pm

probes wrote: ↑

Sun Mar 24, 2024 12:37 pm

Impressive fireworks.

And these forces are supposed to have sent 4 guys to burn down a concert hall? And escape to UKR - provided, on the long way "home", there's fuel available in petrol stations when needed .
2 landing ships, Yamal and Azov, were hit, but no data how badly, yet.

tango15 wrote: ↑

Sun Mar 24, 2024 11:34 am

Putin is beginning to worry me. He seems to be increasingly unhinged and there appears to be no-one to stop him. The comparisons with Hitler are chilling.

Hitler didn't have nukes, of course, though one wonders if the total destruction with the 'conventional warfare' is any less bad. Thinking of the enormous craters of the glide bombs - when will the normal soil be regenerated there?
His Putiness will fall, not necessarily from a balcony or window, when the nearest and dearest decide he's become too weak.

P.S. re: the video - interesting, how people just "observe" the explosions, no rush to the shelters - being fairly certain UKR won't target residential areas?

My contacts in Ukraine tell me that not everyone rushes to the shelters any more. Many people apparently stay where they are and hope, or in the case of older people in particular, have reached the point where they no longer care. The Metro stations, once crowded during an attack, are not as full as they used to be. Equally, the Ukrainians have become better at defending their airspace and the damage, if a missile does reach a city, seems to be relatively minimal. The accuracy of them, as we have seen many times, is also questionable.

I would hope that the Poles would call the Russian Ambassador into the foreign ministry tomorrow, and ask WTH the Russians are doing sending missiles across their airspace, and to infuriate him/her even more, remind them that Poland is a member of NATO

Well, apparently they did, but according to Sly News, Russia's ambassador to Poland did not attend the foreign ministry in Warsaw today despite being summoned to do so. Arrogance personified. A diplomatic note will be sent by another means, the foreign ministry said.

tango15 wrote: ↑

Mon Mar 25, 2024 5:15 pm

Well, apparently they did, but according to Sly News, Russia's ambassador to Poland did not attend the foreign ministry in Warsaw today despite being summoned to do so. Arrogance personified. A diplomatic note will be sent by another means, the foreign ministry said.

So if Poland stationed some anti-missile technology in a suitable place and started shooting down missiles crossing its airspace, would that constitute a strong-enough diplomatic note?

Documentary on BBC2 at 21:00 this evening: Ukraine: Enemy in the Woods.

Fox3WheresMyBanana wrote: ↑

Mon Mar 25, 2024 12:00 am

putin made a speech today blaming NATO for starting a war "in the centre of Europe", i.e. Yugoslavia, 25 years ago today.
This is kindergarten level propaganda.
Wonder where this is leading..not.

Yugoslavia didn’t need NATAO, or anyone else for that matter to start a war. Quite capable of it themselves. Not their first rodeo.