Chaos in North Korea

[John Hill]

SEOUL, Dec 28 (Reuters) - North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has ordered its military, the munitions industry and the nuclear weapons sector to accelerate war preparations to counter what he called unprecedented confrontational moves by the U.S., state media said on Thursday.

Speaking on the policy directions for the new year at a key meeting of the country's ruling party on Wednesday, Kim also said Pyongyang would expand strategic cooperation with "anti-imperialist independent" countries, news agency KCNA reported.

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-paci ... 023-12-27/

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Sounds to me like part of the conditions for the possible transfer of rocket design technology was stirring up a bit of trouble.

I note Yung Fat Wun's diet appears to have lapsed...

[John Hill]

I see a lot of uncertainty in your comment.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Of course. It's not called the Hermit Kingdom for nothing.
I would not wish anyone to think I have more knowledge than I do.

You will note I stick to physical possibilities and logical inferences based on YFW's stated aims (and putin's ones also in this example), which is more than many western commentators do and I point that out.

But I have no idea what's going on inside his head...and nor does anyone else, except possibly his sister.

[Dushan]

And of course our correspondent from the Pyongyang hotel bar with the stuff he learned from his "minders".

[John Hill]

It really was a hermit kingdom in the century before last but that came to an end when foreigners forced their way in.

It is true that our knowledge of the country is very limited and it is frequently assaulted by the efforts of the ROK 'intelligence' agencies. Then there are the accounts from defectors.... remember Curveball? Perhaps we can comfort ourselves in the comforting knowledge that 'our' intelligence people will know all about the place...but I am not so sure about them, exempli gratia https://www.bbc.com/news/world-south-asia-11818583 but that is a whole 'nother story.

The sister, best keep an eye on her as 'the hand that rocks the cradle' appears quite applicable in the DPRK (aka North Korea).

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Ukraine war being used as a testing ground for North Korea's ballistic missiles

An estimated 24 KN-23 and KN-24 missiles have been fired since the Russia-North Korea agreement in October 2023

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ky ... 024-02-16/

Best guess is that the KN-24 is a NK- sourced development of the KN-23.
Both are short range and of use for an invasion of South Korea. They do not have the range to reach significant targets in Japan, or US bases in the area outside SK (e.g. Okinawa)

The evidence from Ukraine would seem to indicate poor accuracy.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ky ... 024-02-16/
This makes them more likely to be used for Chemical, Biological, or Nuclear warheads.
The US Defense Intelligence Agency estimated that the Norks had achieved sufficient miniaturisation of their nuclear warheads to fit them to these missiles 7 years ago.
https://news.usni.org/2023/01/26/report ... e-programs

It's worth mentioning that all NK ballistic missile tests by NK are banned by the UN Security Council. The use by Russia in Ukraine circumvents this ban.

[Dushan]

The evidence from Ukraine would seem to indicate poor accuracy.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ky ... 024-02-16/

Oh, c'mon man, how dare you say that? There are those, here, who would dispute that and tell you that the accuracy is purposely degraded to fool the American CIA dogs. The guidance system was developed, and built, by Fat Kim so they are in every way perfect.

As for not allowing the Norks to test them, how dare the UN imperialist dogs ban them from being able to attack their neighbours?

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

There is good reason to dispute it.
It would be logical to aim some of them at the middle of nowhere, and then see how close to the middle they get.
This would indeed serve the purpose of disguising the operational accuracy.

And the UNSC has a PhD in Hypocrisy.


..but it's more likely their nav system is for sh!t and they are looking for Russian help and testing to improve it.
The Russians would have good reason to not simply hand over some of their own guidance systems, especially if Yung Fat Wun does attack somewhere.

[John Hill]

..but it's more likely their nav system is for sh!t

Hmmmm... I wonder how you came to that conclusion.

[John Hill]

Ukrainian authorities were able to identify the North Korean origin of the 24 missiles thanks to markings resembling Korean symbols...

Hardly disputable then! LOL

[PHXPhlyer]

KN-24

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/KN-24

KN-24, officially the Hwasongpho-11Na(Korean: 《화성포-11나》형; Hanja: 火星砲 11나型; lit. Mars Artillery Type 11Na) (Hwasong-11 improved),[3] is a designation given to a North Korean single-stage, solid-fueled tactical ballistic missile.

Design
The KN-24 bears an external resemblance to the American MGM-140 ATACMS and likely fills a similar role of supporting battlefield operations. One difference is that its aft-mounted aerodynamic fins are fixed rather than foldable like those on the ATACMS, requiring deployment from rectangular launch canisters. It flies in a "variable ballistic trajectory," flattening out at a lower altitude (below around 50 km (160,000 ft)) than traditional SRBMs like the Scud where the atmosphere is dense enough so the missile's fins can maintain aerodynamic control over its entire flight and dive toward the target. Use of INS updated with satellite-guidance data could make it accurate to within 100 meters CEP, or 200 meters using INS alone. Although the missile is outwardly similar to the ATACMS, it has demonstrated greater range, suggesting its physical dimensions are larger; it appears to share a common booster with the KN-23 and is estimated to carry a 400–500 kg payload with a unitary or submunition warhead. The KN-24 is likely to replace older liquid-fueled North Korean SRBMs like the Hwasong-5 and Hwasong-6, as its non-parabolic trajectory makes it more survivable against missile defense systems and its increased accuracy reduces the number of missiles that would be needed to destroy a single target.[4][5][6]

Despite their similarities to the ATACMS system, the KN-24 is significantly larger, and likely uses the same motor as the Pukkuksong-1 with similar jet vanes, and overall resembling a single stage version of it. The launch container has a width of about 1.26 m and a wheel diameter of 0.78 m, similar to the Pukkuksong-2 tracked TEL. A number of images shown of the system appears to be manipulated, significantly increasing the size of the launcher.[7]

With the missile fulfilling a similar role to the KN-23, there should have been no need to develop another missile later with an overlapping performance. However, in an analysis of news reports from the Korean Central News Agency, despite the differences the KN-23 possesses from the 9K720 Iskander, the KN-23 is likely to be constructed with foreign assistance or foreign parts. While all the news reports on the KN-23 mainly focused on the deployment, 'demonstration of power' and newness of it, reports on the KN-24 instead focused on the 'research' and 'development' in its first launch. Later launches of the KN-24 made mention of 'Juche weapons of Korean style', which is not mentioned at all for the KN-23, hinting that whereas the KN-24 underwent a research and development phase, whereas the KN-23 was already deployed prior to being tested and likely having foreign involvement in some form.[8]

In the 'Self-Defence 2021' military exhibition, a beige coloured KN-24 was shown,[7] and revealed the official name of the missile to be Hwasongpho-11Na.[3] Since 나(Na) is second letter in hangul alphabetic order called ganada order, it means this missile is improved version or substitution of Hwasong-11 missile.

History
The first KN-24 test firing occurred on 10 August 2019 near the eastern coastal city of Hamhung, with two missiles reaching an apogee of 48 km and a range of 400 km (250 mi) at a speed of 2.1 km/s (7,600 km/h; 4,700 mph).

Six days later on 16 August 2019, two more missiles were launched from Tongchon to an apogee of 30 km and a range of 230 km (140 mi), demonstrating a depressed trajectory.

On 21 March 2020, two more KN-24s were fired from Sonchon to an apogee of 50 km and a range of 410 km, performing "pull-up maneuvers" in flight and one supposedly striking a small 100 meter-long island.[4][5]

On January 17, 2022, two KN-24's were fired from Sunan Airport located in Pyongyang. The missiles flew 380 km and achieved an apogee of 42 km with a maximum speed of Mach 5 (1.5 - 1.8 km/s). The test fire was conducted to check operational readiness and validate build quality of mass produced KN-24's.

On February 15, 2024, one KN-24 was shot down in Ukraine, near Kyiv.[9]

On February 16, 2024, Ukrainian data showed 24 missiles of the KN-23 and KN-24 type being used by Russia, with overall low accuracy.[10]

PP

[John Hill]

I am not convinced that is even a Korean symbol.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

John, you are always asking to be convinced.
We can't, nobody can.
We offer best guesses, based on what little information is available plus some military and political logic.

Just because we cannot convince you does not mean the opposite is true.
And you never attempt to convince us that it is.
Why, for instance, do you think the Norks have accurate missile navigation systems when everything else (rockets, nukes, subs, etc) experiences an awful lot of failures, in a nation where its best and brightest suffered from malnutrition in their childhood because their great and glorious leader at the time created a three year famine that killed a million?

[John Hill]

Why, for instance, do you think the Norks have accurate missile navigation systems ............

Did I say that? No I did not so please do not ascribe to me a position I do not hold and expect me to defend it.

Now this character which is claimed to show the missile in question came from North Korea. I do not think it is a Korean symbol in fact it looks more Japanese to me, but that of course is only my humble opinion.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

You expressed doubt. It is not unreasonable to assume you hold either a contrary opinion or some evidence to sustain that doubt.
The reason for my opinion has been long-expressed and is well known to you - the Norks are poor at all technical stuff, and their numerous test failures and slow development are testament to that.
And the sum total of Japanese ballistic missiles is...?

[John Hill]

You expressed doubt. It is not unreasonable to assume you hold either a contrary opinion or some evidence to sustain that doubt.

I do not need evidence to sustain doubt.

And the sum total of Japanese ballistic missiles is...?

Probably a lot less than their output of barometric modules.

[Dushan]

Why, for instance, do you think the Norks have accurate missile navigation systems when everything else (rockets, nukes, subs, etc) experiences an awful lot of failures, in a nation where its best and brightest suffered from malnutrition in their childhood because their great and glorious leader at the time created a three year famine that killed a million?

F3, I don't think you were around TOP when we were told countless stories about a certain member who spent a lot of time in DPRK helping them develop some technical system having to do with comms. Could have been ATC related. In any case he was told by his "minders", while drinking in the hotel bar (Maritime Bar??), how wonderful things are in NK and Pyongyang. No need for second opinion or proof. In the words of Jean Chretien "the proof is the proof".

[John Hill]

Should I accept a missile failure as proof of technical incompetence?

[John Hill]

How about two missile failures (of the same type)?