A grave mistake

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Hezbollah attacks from Lebanon appear to be their usual tokenism. Small caliber rockets, e.g. Katyusha, and arty against claimed Israeli military sites just over the border.
https://english.almanar.com.lb/2085712

IDF claims 2 Hezbollah drones intercepted, some rockets intercepted (others indicate this was by Iron Dome) and the rest fell on open territory. No casualties reported.
More chance of dying of boredom listening to the usual epically-long speech by the head of Hezbollah in support of Hamas.

No indications of other Iranian proxies (e.g. Houthis, Islamic Resistance in Iraq) involved yet. Maybe they are booked for the next couple of days.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Some indications that Iran may have more direct action in mind.
Biden has just made a statement with blunt advice to Iran:

"Don't"

In the last hour, Germany has advised its citizens to leave Iran.

"In the current tensions, especially between Israel and Iran, there is a risk of a sudden escalation. It cannot be excluded that air, land and sea transport routes could be affected.
German citizens are at concrete risk of being arbitrarily arrested and interrogated and being given long prison sentences. Dual citizens with Iranian and German nationality are especially at risk."

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Three US officials saying that Iran may launch up to 100 cruise missiles.
Skies over the ME remarkably clear of civil aviation.
Second round of rockets inbound from Lebanon.

Speculation that this is integrated targetting to overwhelm Iron Dome/Israeli AD so that Iranian cruise missiles can get through.

Could get very messy...but might be no more than a bit of bother by Hezbollah and the usual wild, arm-waving, motor-mouthin' in the Souk.

Interesting times.....

[Dushan]

I think I asked this a while back, but I’ll ask again: where is USS Vincennes and is she heading to the Med or the Gulf?

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

All airliners now avoiding Israeli, Lebanese, and Syrian airspace...except the Polish LOT, who have one inbound to Tel Aviv and one outbound from Beirut.
Iranian airspace has normal traffic with Islamic nation airlines, but most western airlines seem to be tracking over Iraq or Turkmenistan.
Course changes of the few I've looked at seem to indicate they decided to avoid the aforementioned airspaces about 2 hours ago.
As a consequence, there's now huge amounts of traffic over Koseli on the North Turkish coast, and Dubai.

The USS Vincennes was turned into wheel hubs, cow pens, and cutlery in Texas 13 years ago...although ironically her sistership, Cowpens, is still active.

There are rumoured to be two similar US guided missile destroyers off the Israeli coast though, probably one off Tel Aviv and one off Eilat (that's where I'd put them, anyway).
However, there are zero Iran Air flights currently airborne. Nor any for El Al. Read into that what you will.


Update: Etihad and Emirates now crossing across the narrowest bit of Israel just north of Tel Aviv, so I guess they have been told something.
Western airlines still avoiding everywhere previously mentioned.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

aaaand...they nicked a ship instead.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

It's all kicking off...(in the last 15 minutes, it seems).



Jordan is closing its airspace in the next hour. The last airliner out of Amman should exit their airspace in the next few minutes. It is the second most watched airliner worldwide on Flightradar.
The most watched is an El Al Boeing still on the ground at Tel Aviv, but it doesn't look to me like it's going anywhere.

Biden is reported back in the WH to monitor events.

Israel is basically closed tomorrow (a normal working day for them usually).

..and why, FFS, am I telling you all this before the BBC, CBS, CBC, etc, have even noticed????

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Reported that "Israeli sources" have confirmed the drone launch.

The aircraft being watched at Ben Gurion was apparently the Israeli equivalent of Air Force One, and it has reportedly scrambled with its transponder off.
Unknown if anyone important is on board, but it's presumed from broadcast timings that Netanyahu isn't. Deputy PM, maybe?

I've just seen what appears to be the last Israeli airliner inbound to Tel Aviv doing 423 kts at 2,500 ft just short of the airfield.
Talk about keen to be on the ground!

There's an Voyager just airborne out of Akrotiri and appears to be setting up a towline just outside Israeli Airspace.
https://www.flightradar24.com/RRR9964/34c2bcda
My money is that there's at least a couple of Tiffies with it, loaded for bear.
Don't know if this is just to protect Cyprus, aid the Israelis, or both.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

The Israeli airliner is now on the ground at Ben Gurion. They managed an hour and a half scheduled flight in 56 minutes.

Biden is holding an NSA meeting in the Situation Room.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Israeli airspace closes at 14/0030 local (13/2130 Z).
Iraqi airspace reported closed.

Rumours currently circulating in Israel (courtesy of ARRSE commenters if you wish to follow direct) are that:
Iran has launched up to three waves of slow drones from Iran.
The Houthis have just launched some cruise missiles from Yemen.
Iran will also launch cruise missiles. Possibly all will arrive at similar times.

[PHXPhlyer]

Is Iran about to be paved over with sand turned to glass?

PP

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Israeli expecting first Iranian drones to arrive in about 2-1/4 hours, 140200 local, 132300Z.
Reuters reporting that Jordan will intercept any Iranian drones or aircraft that violate its airspace.

I would expect that they are routed via Iraq, Syria and either Lebanon and/or over the Med.
The RAF may (my speculation) intercept any over the Med. The Voyager has now gone dark but was positioning for such an option.

Update as of a minute ago - Iran reportedly has launched cruise missiles, and they do appear to be aiming for a Time On Target arrival with the drones in an attempt to overwhelm Israeli air defences.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Iran to become a Glass Car Park? Not yet, I suspect.

It will depend on what the Iranians manage to hit, and with what kind of warheads.
Is NBC a possibility? Well, I wouldn't be surprised if the Israelis are right now considering whether to have a flight of F35s/F15Is loaded with buckets of instant sunshine airborne at 0200 local, just in case.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

The USAF K35R that was on a towline in Northern Iraq has just left Iraqi airspace at top speed into Kuwaiti airspace, squawking 7700.
https://www.flightradar24.com/34c209b5

I would speculate that this squawk was to ID it to Iraqi controllers, and maybe Iranian ones, rather than because it has an emergency on board.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Several (at least two) airliners have left Tel Aviv recently.
Looks like they are keeping transponders off till they clear Israeli airspace.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

IRGC states it has launched cruise missiles at Israel
Random phone videos on X which appear to be Shahed drones transiting western Iraq - they can only be heard, not seen, as it's gone midnight there.
Saudi media reporting that the US has intercepted several Iranian drones over Iraq and Syria.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

There's an airliner out of Tel Aviv headed for Romania which appears to be pinging around the southeastern Med
https://www.flightradar24.com/HYM458/34c2d8a2

I will speculate that the RAF told him to sod off from Cypriot airspace, but after appeals are letting him through because he has nowhere else left to go.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

It's possible from the track of the Romania-bound airliner that RAF fighters intercepted, Id'ed it, and cleared it to continue.
The airliner crew may be unaware of this. It's now over Northern Cyprus.

Netanyahu has thanked the US, UK and other countries for standing by Israel.
Unknown whether this means they have actually intercepted Iranian inbound weapons or not, and this ambiguity is probably deliberate.

Lebanon has closed its airspace too, now. Drones and rockets are reported inbound to Israel from Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Iran’s supreme leader says ‘malicious Zionist regime will be punished' as Israel braces for drone and cruise missile strikes.

Confirmation from a British security company that the Houthis have launched against Israel.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

So, where are we?

The Iranians have assorted drones and cruise missiles inbound to Israel, presumably all arriving around 0200 local.
The Houthis appear to have launched with the same aim.
Hezbollah is launching its usual nuisance attacks in response to the news, but aren't in on the Big Plan (i.e. nobody trusts them).

Routing? Maybe not over Jordan. Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon, maybe the Med too. Definitely not over Saudi.
Targets? Warheads?
Best bet is purely military targets, with blast-frag conventional warheads, but the Israelis can't afford to assume that.

US? The tanker over northern Iraq probably had at least a couple of fighters in tow, which have engaged some Iranian drones then skedaddled.
The warships and USN fighters will be ready to intercept anything that comes their way, but may not (see Routing) get the chance.
The RAF may be ready to intercept anything over the Med, and possibly Lebanon also.

Israeli response - Oh, Yes! probably immediately after the impact is known. The Israelis will want a response proportional to the damage,
if for no other reason than the US will insist on it.

Charge your glasses for about 2330Z.

[PHXPhlyer]

Iran announced about five minutes ago that they have launched the first wave of ballistic missiles.
Flight time approx. twelve minutes.

PP