A grave mistake

[PHXPhlyer]

I knew about the Iron Dome and Patriot systems but i had not heard of David's Sling or the Arrow 2 and 3.
Arrow 2 and 3 seem very capable.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arrow_(missile_family)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arrow_3

These are the various air defense systems that Israel can use to intercept missiles and drones

There are very few countries as prepared as Israel for Iran's air attack, given its arsenal and experience with linked militant groups such as Hamas and Hezbollah.

The best-known of Israel's air defense capabilities is the Iron Dome — a short-range system that has intercepted thousands of rockets and drones fired by both groups in the past few years. According to Israeli manufacturer Rafael Defense Systems, it boasts a 90% success rate. Earlier this week, Israel also debuted the maritime version of the Iron Dome, an air defense system known as "C-Dome," to intercept a Houthi drone.

But the Iron Dome does have limitations: Some rockets have punched through — several fired by Hezbollah against Israel did on Friday — and the defense system is best suited for rockets or missiles fired from short distances. Its radar has a range of 4 to 70 kilometers (about 2.5 to 43 miles).

To deal with medium- to long-range missiles or drones — the type it will likely face in Iran's attack on Saturday — Israel installed the David's Sling system in 2017. With a range of up to 300 kilometers (about 186 miles), its main goal is to protect against and intercept large-caliber rockets, drones or short-range ballistic missiles.

"The David's Sling system is capable of intercepting missiles fired towards Israel by enemy countries such as Iran and Syria," the IDF said in a statement when the system was introduced.


In addition to these short and medium-range capabilities, Israel also has the Arrow 2 and Arrow 3 anti-ballistic missile systems, which are designed to target and strike long-range ballistic missiles at a range of up to 2,400 kilometers (1,491 miles). The Arrow 3 system has also been used to shoot down ballistic missiles in space.

In addition to these domestically developed air defense systems, Israel also operates US-made Patriot air defense systems, which have a reported range of up to 160 kilometers (about 99 miles) and can intercept most types of missiles. These have proven quite effective against Russian hypersonic missiles in Ukraine.

Israel can also deploy its extensive air force. Its fleet includes US-made F-15, F-16 and highly advanced fifth-generation F-35 jets. All of these can be equipped with air-to-air missiles and are capable of shooting down incoming drones or missiles.

PP

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

IF (big if) the Israeli damage toll is just one 10 year old boy, and (just now) reportedly from IDF spokesperson some very minor damage to facilities, then the IRGC look completely impotent, the IDF/Netanyahu look very competent.

Break: TV statement by IDF spokesman Col Hagari.
Over 200 inbounds, the vast majority have been intercepted, the Israelis still think the operation is ongoing, and still have jets airborne.

UPDATE: Iranian media (FARS) saying also that the attack isn't over yet.

Backs up my initial statement.
I think the IAF now may be given their dream list of targets in Iran.
I would expect strikes against 4 groups of targets
1) Iranian nuke facilities
2) IRGC targets
3) Ballistic missile facilities
4) Iranian economic targets (but probably not oil, to avoid upsetting Biden).

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

The UN SG has strongly condemned the Iranian attack, and also called for a complete cessation of hostilities.

I await a statement from a more important individual, but apparently the deputy groundsman for the Lower Snodsbury Village Green was on a bender this evening, and isn't expected to surface till tomorrow afternoon.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Unconfirmed, but from a usually reliable commentator, than King Abdullah of Jordan will allow Israeli jets free passage.

Possibly connected, and also unconfirmed, is that the Bedouin boy was actually in Jordan.

There has been an official Israeli statement that their only wounded is a young girl who is expected to recover.

So, all the following, whilst mostly unconfirmed, would hang together.

More when I can get it.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Israel has rescinded shelter warnings for southern Israel, so presumably no more Iranian inbounds.

The Golan is of course within range of Hezbollah, who are not above lobbing the odd rocket at Israel in the same way the sea is not above the sky.

The UN SC will likely be working tomorrow - Israel has requested a meeting.

[Dushan]

Maybe Justin will issue a strongly worded statement that will get everyone in line.
After all he said he told Xi off and told him not to interfere in Canadian elections.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Looks like WW3 isn't about to happen before breakfast tomorrow, so I'm off to bed. Sleep well, one and all.

[G-CPTN]

How would Britain fare against a weapon onslaught such as seen in Israel last night?

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

No problem taking out drones and cruise missiles using AD fighters against the cruise missiles and army SAMs on the coast against the drones and leakers.
For ballistic missiles the only option is the Type 45 destroyers with Aster, 48 each on 6 ships.
Assuming there was sufficient warning, at least three in the right places would be needed for the 120 ballistic missiles launched last night.

It would all be f-off expensive, however, and I doubt there are sufficient weapons to do this more than a couple of times, and the restock time would be scary.

It's a not dissimilar situation to the one Israel now finds itself in.
The US is unwilling to support any Israeli response, however it will be difficult to sustain a complete defence against Iran's missiles in the long term as they are numerous and cheap compared to the defensive missiles.
What is probably needed is an attack on Iran which will persuade them not to repeat this kind of thing.
The Iranian statement that they consider this "it" is worthless in practice, since Israel is obliged to keep hitting IRGC generals who keep supporting proxies that attack Israel.
This is a very tricky kind of attack to get right, and I'm not sure what will work best.

The possibilities include (but are not limited to).
Hit enough of the Iranian leadership to make this personally dangerous for them to decide to continue attacks.
Hit the drone/missile factories and stores to sufficiently reduce missile capacity
Hit enough of the Iranian economy to make it too expensive for them to continue (my previous caveat about not hitting oil resources still applies)
Hit the nuclear and other research sites to ruin their longer term strategy

Israel has to hit them hard enough to get them to stop, but soft enough that they still have something worth preserving, and also not anger the international community.
If the reports are true that both Jordan and Saudi Arabia assisted in hitting Iranian drones last night, then I think this is a connection very much worth preserving, strategically.

[EA01]

Far far better than Australia could!!!

...would you beleive a German sheperd & a Boy Scout!?

( Edit: Response to G-CPTN)

[Pinky the pilot]

Far far better than Australia could!!!

I can remember quite a few years ago a Defence expert (or some Politician; really cannot remember exactly) stating that the Australian Defence Forces (at that time) could not defend Australia from an invasion of Filipino Boy Scouts!

I doubt that the situation is any better even now...

[EA01]

I suspect worse no Pinky!

Most every Global leader has rightly condemned indiscriminate missile & drone attacks againt Israeli citizens (Sure, nothing much really made it through 'cos of Israeli superiority)....BUT, where is the condemnation from Albanese, Wong, Marles Et All., ??

They embarass us!

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Biden has said he won't support an Israeli response.
However, saying "Don't" and then doing nothing when Iran does will diminish the international standing of the US even more.
So, apart from oil, he either needs to not stand in the way of an Israeli response, or bring in some effective further sanctions of Iran.
I'm not sure the latter is possible, nevermind the likely effect on oil prices, so not opposing an Israeli response it will likely be.

Israel will not want to hang around, so strikes tonight seem likely.
I'm not sure the UN SC meeting today is anything other than a formality.

[tango15]

+1 on the UNSC meeting. Personally, I think the UN has had its day, and a re-think is in order, but that will never happen. The likes of Putin and Netanyahu (and I suspect many others), just see it as a talking shop, which sadly, seems to be the case.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

The Israeli Security Cabinet has this morning authorized PM Netanyahu, Defence Minister Gallant (former Major General), and Minister-without-Portfolio Gantz (former IDF Chief of Staff) to decide on Israel's military response.
The PM's spokesman said Israel's response would be "firm and clear".

Fortunately, I stocked up on booze and snacks just a couple of days ago! Looks like another night of fun and games, though I don't think we will get as much information on what's going on.
We will probably need to wait till Monday or Tuesday to know what's been hit.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Jerusalem Post article on possible Israeli Target(s) for Tonight

https://www.jpost.com/israel-hamas-war/article-796936

I will take a guess at the above ground nuke sites, maybe the power stations for the underground ones, and something on the Iranian missile factories.
If Ukraine is lucky, the Shahed drone facilities will be hit.
I think some IRGC sites are likely too.
There may be a fair bit more, and indeed there is a heck of a lot to choose from.
I think a general hit on electrical power facilities could be a good move too.

On balance, given the general condemnation of the Iranian attack, and that it was large, involved ballistic missiles, and was launched direct from Iran, I do think Israel has an opportunity for a big raid on some vital Iranian facilities.
I think Netanyahu, Gallant and Gantz will take that opportunity. We could see a lot, possibly most of the IAF airborne tonight.

[Dushan]

I'm not sure the UN SC meeting today is anything other than a formality.

Are you suggesting that some UN SC meetings are not a formality?

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

The ones directly involving the Permanent Members are very useful for working out the changing allegiances and obligations of the other members from the voting.
Same as the Eurovision song contest - tune in for the vote, preferably with a glass in hand, but FFS avoid the content.

[PHXPhlyer]

Fortunately, I stocked up on booze and snacks just a couple of days ago! Looks like another night of fun and games, though I don't think we will get as much information on what's going on.
We will probably need to wait till Monday or Tuesday to know what's been hit.

Popcorn and adult beverages at the ready here as well.
At least thanks to the time difference I won't have to stay up past my increasingly early bedtime.

PP

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

The Standard 2 missile easily had the range to do this, assuming the Arleigh Burke was parked just off Eilat, which was what I predicted earlier.

Great scuba diving there, by the way (I dived from Aqaba, Jordan), though I wouldn't recommend it just at the mo...

Initial low res imagery appears to show some impact near an office type building at Nevatim air base.
My best guess is that the wreckage from a ballistic missile intercept has blown out the windows at one end of Eng Wing Headquarters, since the building is next to the biggest hangar on the base.
OC Eng will not be a happy bunny this morning.
But then when was any OC Eng ever truly happy?