A grave mistake

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

US officials unofficially saying they expect 400-500 drones and missiles.
Israeli officials saying they expect the targets to be the Golan heights and "an air force base in the Negev".

I would speculate this is Hatzerim Air Base. It has two fighter squadrons, possibly including one (F15I) with nukes.
More importantly, both bases are in as close to the middle of nowhere that it's possible to get in Israel, which will reduce collateral damage risks.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Reports from Tel Aviv moments ago that all the lights are still on.

An instant meme is now circulating in Israel following a post on social media by an IDF female saying she didn't know what was going to happen, but would be "sleeping with her bra on tonight".

[PHXPhlyer]

An uplifting statement?

PP

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Well, it's all going TitsUp

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Israeli War Cabinet now meeting.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Israeli has warned citizens in Nevatim and Dimona, plus the Golan, to be ready to shelter.

Nevatim air base is close to the first two, and has the F35s.
There does not appear to be a nuke storage area here, unlike Hatzerim nearby.
The US has only just cleared the F35 to carry nukes.
Dimona is of course near the Israeli nuke research establishment (i.e. likely nuke bomb factory).

So we have two scenarios - the Iranians will hit the F35 base to cause maximum financial damage and warn that they could hit the nuke sites, or they will hit the nuke sites (but not the major ones, which are between Jerusalem and Tel Aviv).

Eilat has also been warned. I would guess that's because the Houthi missiles/drones are inbound to the naval base there, as they have struck it before.

[Dushan]

Biden “rushed” back to the WH. I would have liked to see that. Shuffling along twice as fast as normal?

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Iran has warned the US to stay out of it, at the same time as the US confirms it has shot down Iranian drones.

Israel reports over 100 inbounds have been shot down outside Israeli territory, with help from the US and UK.

Iran has threatened Jordan with reprisals if it aids Israel.
It would only need to do this if in fact it has drones, etc, inbound to Israel over Jordan, so I am assuming it has.

Iran has warned Israel against a response by promising "a more severe response".
Israel is bound to respond.

So, I suggest everyone pops out and fills up their gas tanks right now.
See you in an hour.
Mine, of course, are already full.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Sirens going off all over Israel, including Jerusalem and the West bank.
Impacts were forecast for 10 minutes time, but that was unlikely to be accurate.

Reports from Tel Aviv of fighter jets heard high overhead.

We wait.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Live feed from Al Jizz

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Imminent impacts in the Negev, all citizens ordered to shelters for 10 minutes.
Implies all impacts are indeed TOT.
The warning areas do not enable the targets in the Negev to be identified - could be Hatzerim, Nevatim, Dimona, or any or all of them.

Further unconfirmed reports of explosions in Jerusalem, plus reports of both the Saudis and the Jordanians intercepting Iranian inbounds.

UK has confirmed officially it "will intercept any airborne attacks within range of our existing missions, as required"

Update: Jordanian air force has reportedly intercepted "dozens" of drones.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

So, by its own statements, Iran is now duty bound to launch reprisals against the UK, US, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia, at least.

Boy, have they f#cked up this one.
I doubt very much they will actually respond against the last two.

British Army commenters pointing out that the RAF is flying at the weekend !!!!!!
How more serious could it get?

[PHXPhlyer]

From CN's reporting from Jerusalem it seems that almost all drones/missiles in the first wave were intercepted.
That is good but I am wondering what the storehouse holds to fend off the next wave(s).
Same for US and UK stores.

PP

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Israeli sources reporting the ballistic missile attack is over.
Only one impact reported so far, with a 10 year old Bedouin boy injured, so presumably that ended up in the middle of nowhere.

Reports from Jerusalem of the sky lit up by a barrage of interceptor missiles headed skywards.

Update: yes, PP. To be ready for wave 2, or not to be ready, That is the question.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Reports from Al Jizz that Iranian inbounds have been seen coming from seaward, for the first time.

The RAF have therefore probably been in action intercepting them.

Solid reports that RAF Typhoons were/are airborne from Akrotiri, but no comment yet from the MoD.

[PHXPhlyer]

Iran says attack in response to 'Zionist regime’s aggression' has concluded

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/live ... #rcrd38760
Iran said it conducted a military attack on Israel "in response to the Zionist regime’s aggression against our diplomatic premises in Damascus," and that "the matter can be deemed concluded."

The Permanent Mission of the Islamic Republic of Iran to the U.N. said in a post on X that if Israel makes "another mistake, Iran's response will be considerably more severe," and that the matter is between Iran and Israel, and that the U.S. should stay out of it.

It said the attack was "legitimate defense" in response to the suspected Israeli attack on the Iranian consular building in Syria and was "conducted on the strength of Article 51 of the UN Charter."

The drones, launched hours ago, are beginning to arrive in Israel.

PP

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Well, the Iranians are on another planet if they think this is over.

[Dushan]

Well, yes it will be over, for Iranians, soon if they don’t calm down.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Al Jizz US contributor mentioning that this attack probably shows the strength of the IRGC in Iran now, since is clearly not in Iran's strategic interest but is clearly an attempt to restore IRGC pride after the loss of their generals.
That is, the Mullahs are in the back seat now.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

The Bedouin boy has died.

Still zero other damage or injury reports from Israel.

Reports via US officials that 150 missiles have been launched against Israel so far.
Unknown if this includes drones.

Reports from Iraq that officials are keeping mum - clearly hedging their bets against what happens next.

Vid of the day - intercepts over Temple Mount