MH370

[probes]

ok, now that lots of water has flown into the ocean - what do you think happened? Could it really have been a cunning plan by the Capt who was unaware that the pings could be followed?

[Keef]

I've read a lot of interesting suggestions and counterarguments from a wide cross-section of the worlds leading experts (many of them self-appointed) in a vast thread that has now disappeared.

I reckon the Martians flew it round the ground-based radars that might have seen it, then pointed it away from civilisation and abducted the crew and pax, leaving the aircraft to run out of fuel over one of the deeper parts of the ocean. Or the same without the Martians.

[Alisoncc]

[Bull at a Gate]

Absolutely every suggestion concerning how MH370 was lost that I have read is ridiculous. In those circumstances Sherlock Holmes says that it is the least improbable solution which is the most likely. I vote for the Captain's cunning plan theory as being the least improbable.

[Ex-Ascot]

Until they find those boxes no one will know for sure. I have my ideas but I am not going to add to the other so called experts claims. What I do think is that we will find out in the end but it could be many years to come.

[ian16th]

Two things that have come to my notice; I was surprised at the lack of primary radar coverage. The civilian authorities seem to rely totally on secondary radar.

Everyone in the world now know's where Reunion is! My favourite holiday destination overrun.

[500N]

I read something a while ago that the radar coverage is not that good there
And gaps exist and Malaysia doesn't want everyone to know, especially
The enemy.

[limeygal]

My money is still on the wild animals breaking out of the cargo hold. The cross dressing cabaret dancers also had legs for a while (see what I did there?), but seriously, where would they have hidden their uzi's?

[Chuks]

Researchers from the Geomar Helmholtz-Zentrums für Ozeanforschung (Geomar Helmholtz Center for Oceanic Research) in Kiel, Germany have done more research on the possible crash site for MH370.

Working from the location of the recovered wreckage on the island of Reunion, Professors Arne Biastoch and Jonathan Durgadoo did a backwards-running simulation using almost 2 million virtual particles set adrift using data on ocean currents from Mercator Ocean of Toulouse, France. 95 percent of the particles ended up loosely grouped in an area about half the size of Australia that agrees with the previous track information for the missing aircraft, an area that has not been searched.

The researchers stated that only the upper ocean currents had been taken into account, not wind and wave activity. They next plan to use wave activity as well, still ignoring winds, since the piece of wreckage should have been laid flat on the surface of the water.

The researchers said that, as far as they know, theirs is the only backwards-running simulation done so far. They also said that this is not to be taken as a basis for shifting the area of search.

(This post is based on an article in German written by Matthias Hoenig, published in the "Verdener Nachrichten" of 2 September 2015.)

[henry crun]

...previous track information...

Do they say what this is?

[Chuks]

I assume they are referring to the way that the "pings" were used to figure out a possible track, the basis for the current search. There was no illustration of this but it's easy to guess that this large area underlies part of that track. That said, "half of Australia" is a very large area!

At least, these are serious scientists, not some internet whacko who used tarot cards to figure something out.

[500N]

Chuks
The pings, where, when et al were shown in some diagrams. Prob still on the net.

[henry crun]

Those acoustic pings could have travelled a long way beneath the surface if you consider the depth of the ocean and the likelihood of them being refracted by temperature inversion layers. Has anyone done any tests on distances travelled by undersea sounds? Dolphins and whales communicate over quite long distances.

From wiki:
Propagation of sound
Underwater acoustic propagation depends on many factors. The direction of sound propagation is determined by the sound speed gradients in the water. In the sea the vertical gradients are generally much larger than the horizontal ones. Combining this with a tendency towards increasing sound speed at increasing depth, due to the increasing pressure in the deep sea, causes a reversal of the sound speed gradient in the thermocline, creating an efficient waveguide at the depth, corresponding to the minimum sound speed. The sound speed profile may cause regions of low sound intensity called "Shadow Zones," and regions of high intensity called "Caustics". These may be found by ray tracing methods.
At equator and temperate latitudes in the ocean, the surface temperature is high enough to reverse the pressure effect, such that a sound speed minimum occurs at depth of a few hundred metres. The presence of this minimum creates a special channel known as Deep Sound Channel, previously known as the SOFAR (sound fixing and ranging) channel, permitting guided propagation of underwater sound for thousands of kilometres without interaction with the sea surface or the seabed.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Underwater_acoustics

[A Lutra Continua]

...At least, these are serious scientists, not some internet whacko who used tarot cards to figure something out.

Don't knock tarot cards. They make great coasters for your beer and there's even space for a couple of pretzels.

[Chuks]

Sorry. By "pings" I meant the automatic attempts at contact by the ACARS inflight data transfer system, not the acoustic underwater pings.

[Blacksheep]

Reported today that an Air France pilot spotted floating debris off Reunion during approach. Not that it means its from MH 370 of course. There's lots of debris floating in the sea.

[msdad2]

Thats a few days old now - They sent someone out to have a look but nothing found.

[probes]

a second look will be taken:

THE search for MH370 will return to more than 30 sites in coming weeks to ensure nothing has been missed.
The latest update on the underwater search reveals the decision to revisit “Classification 2” sites where search vessels have previously made “sonar contacts of interest”.
Despite being rated as “unlikely to be significant to the search” the Australian Transport Safety Bureau now believes they warrant a second look.
MH370 search to revisit more than 30 sites previously ruled out

[SOPS]

It has all gone very quiet of late.

[Ex-Ascot]

Actually not. There is a report from a fisherman in the Philippines who claims to have found the aircraft with the pilot's bodies strapped into their seats but it all smells fishy to me. Sorry can't post a link from the S3 but Giggle it.

Just for a matter of interest are they still using the flt no. 370 - doubt it.