Egypt Air Flight Disappears from Radar

[Slasher]

Gentlemen. Whenever a prang like this occurs everybody starts speculating as to the cause (often fanatically with no facts where the mainstream media are concerned).

It's far too early to say what happened. Was it a timed bomb smuggled on board at Paris? Was it a total loss of AC and for some reason unrecoverable? Was it another Egyptair suicide dive? We're terrorists on board who utilized the materials on board (and as crew we know what they are and the locations)? Was it a subtle loss of pressurization which caused either pilot to slump and disengage the A/P button on the stick?

Who TF knows. One question I have is why the turn upon entering CAI FIR? No one can answer that until the investigation is complete. Informed speculation is one thing, but taking a stance before anything else is known is another.

[Airborne Aircrew]

I think it crashed...

But that's a personal opinion...

[probes]

Smoke on board -
The Aviation Herald said it had received flight data filed through the Aircraft Communications Addressing and Reporting System (ACARS) from three independent channels.
It said the system showed that at 02:26 local time on Thursday (00:26 GMT) smoke was detected in the Airbus A320 toilet.
A minute later - at 00:27 GMT - there was an avionics smoke alert.
The last ACARS message was at 00:29 GMT, the air industry website said, and the contact with the plane was lost four minutes later at 02;33 local time.


http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-36348699

[Slasher]

Multiple ECAM cautions and warnings in the space of 4 seconds can't be good.

[500N]

Multiple ECAM cautions and warnings in the space of 4 seconds can't be good.

Like the Qantas Singapore engine one, sent multiple messages in a very short time
that Sydney knew something was wrong.

[Slasher]

Sorry I meant to say in the space of 4 minutes.

At any rate Avionics smoke is not something you want over the Med. You have to follow the QRH drill and identify the smoke source. Since the ACARS reported Avionics smoke then that would've shown up on the ECAM. Unless the actions required for this drill are done timely, all hell will break loose in a very short time.

However time will tell if this was the primary cause of the accident.

[dubbleyew eight]

smoke in the toilet really just means that the detector in the toilet activated.
the entire aeroplane could have been filled with billowing smoke.
lithium batteries in the cargo?

[Ex-Ascot]

W8, if that had been the case the hold smoke detectors would have activated.

Given all the information gained so far I am 90% sure of what happened. I have told Mrs Ex-A. Let us see if I am correct. Prepared to confess if wrong including my theory. There are big clues now.

[probes]

ok, would you give us the clues then? If not the theory yet.

[Airborne Aircrew]

Never having seen ACARS messages before they appear to be a little cryptic for those not in the know.

My Guesses as to what they mean would be as follows:

Anti Ice R window - The anti icing system for the right or rear window is displaying a fault of some sort, (I'm guessing the right cockpit window).

R sliding window sensor - the right sliding window in the cockpit has an issue.

Smoke Lavatory smoke...I get that one...

Avionics Smoke - Smoke in the avionics compartment - I'm not sure where that is but it would be a bit of an issue.

R Fixed Window Sensor - Right cockpit fixed window has an issue - IMO there's a serious problem on the right side of the cockpit...

Auto Flt FCU2 Fault - There's a problem with the Back-up Automatic Fire Control Unit which is probably in the Avionics bay - where smoke was detected...

F/Ctl Sec 3 fault - This one has me... My guess is Fire Control in Sector 3 is buggered...

The upshot, and not knowing where the avionics compartment is but having the feeling it's near the cockpit and, strangely, on the right side under the deck with an unintentional conduit to the nearest lavatory but is well ventilated for obvious reasons so the smoke detectors were the last to see the smoke. So the the anti icing shorted out on the right window which is controlled from close to the avionics bay. This caused the right sliding window sensor to fail. the smoke went backwards and leaked into a lavatory that is deliberately set to "super sensitive" to catch those nasty smokers. Now, finally, the avionics bay smoke sensor wakes up. Unfortunately, it's too late to prevent a failure of a fire control unit that the aircraft probably needs. Finally, Sector 3's Fire control is utterly buggered...

Actually, finally, the ACARS fails.

One would be most interested to know two things:-

1. How do these timings compare with the final radio transmissions and the erratic behaviour of the aircraft before it left radar
2. What cockpit indications would any of these ACARS messages have generated and how "seriously" would they have been taken by crew.

PS: I know I'm way off on my "assessment" but I thought it would be fun to try.

[Ex-Ascot]

 AA: 'I know I'm way off on my "assessment" but I thought it would be fun to try'

Yes well, good try. An FCU by the way is a Flight Control Unit. Quite important. The avionics bay is beneath and to the rear of the flight deck. In other words the forward part of the hold.

Sorry Probes, unless bleeding obvious I don't go public on my 'best guesses'. As has already been stated, it clearly pranged big time.

[OFSO]

Worrying:

"Every year there are between 900 and 1200 smoke-related incidents on aircraft in the USA."

Even more worrying:

"An aircraft carrying 100 passengers could have around 500 Lithium batteries in the cabin (cameras, laptops, tablets, e-readers, phones, etc".

Source: researcher and aircraft captain John Cox, Fellow of the RAS, quoted on BBC newsfeed.

For the record, I always have my phone, my tablet and my Kindle with me. So there's three Li batteries right there.

[Airborne Aircrew]

Ex A:

An FCU by the way is a Flight Control Unit. Quite important.

I went back and forth between Fire and Flight but decided Fire was more likely... Definitely a bit of a critical piece of kit...

[Ex-Ascot]

AA, when I went onto the A300-600R from the VC10 I couldn't believe the number of abbreviations for all the gadgets. Even the artificial horizon was called sumat different. Don't ask me what. Never could get to grips with all that modern wizardry. I wanted to go home to my Shiny Ten.

Once had to abort twice at Banjul cos all the screens went blank at about 100kts. The passengers were gibbering wrecks. On board was the chef from our local pub/restaurant. She never let me forget that. Neither did the landlord as we had to night stop and she was a day late in the kitchen.

[Airborne Aircrew]

Ex A:

Yes that's the alarming thing about digital anything... When the wiggly amps go astray you get nothing... Doesn't it have good old analogue back-up instrumentation at all now?

[rgbrock1]

Here's an extract of the ACARS data as provided by the media



As has already been pointed out, there are a couple of entries about smoke and a couple of other entries about cockpit windows. However, if you look at the very first entries, which proceed the "smoke entries" by several hours you'll see one entry with "No data from ADC1" and "QAR media low."

Not knowing a damn thing about any of this stuff, I'd like to ask someone who might know if either of the above 2 entries are something to be concerned about or signify a problem?????

[Airborne Aircrew]

RGB:

They took place during engine start if you look at the phase column. That was 3:15 minutes of totally uneventful flight time before problems began.

Though I look forward to knowing what they meant I don't believe they will have any bearing on the eventual outcome but would probably indicate a servicing item sometime in the future.

[Wodrick]

No data from ADC1 = Air Data Computer 1 - there is another, optionally two, memory fails but certainly return to base.
QAR is Quick Access Recorder, part of the Flight Data Recorder. You remove it for readout if there is a perceived problem but you don't want to remove the FDR proper for readout.
I see that all four messages are flagged on engine start, these would probably be historic therefore,Known minor problems.

[rgbrock1]

Thanks for the info AA and Wodrick.

IF this was a case of an uncontrolled fire onboard the aircraft - key word being IF - then I don't understand the lack of comms from the flight deck. If you remember back to the Swissair flt 111 accident, the flight deck of that aircraft were in constant comms with the ground. Ultimately that aircraft was destroyed but they were communicating.

[Wodrick]

I don't want to do this but ......
The problem with window heat points to the Window Heat Computer. This is directly below the flight deck. If we extrapolate further the flight deck was probably filling with smoke. I think, but am not sure, that the Avionics Smoke drill has them going into Emergency Electronics configuration. So they are getting on smoke masks turning to clear the Airway to avoid descending through conflicting traffic, and doing a complex drill. Communicate is at the bottom of a long list.