Flightradar data equates to a zero 'g' dive, from 6,000 ft to crash, in 16 seconds. Final airspeed shown as 486 kts. This would appear to match the other known data, such as the short distance from the final turn to the crash site, the wreckage distribution, and the lack of a mayday.
The ATC audio is here
Completely normal until the final dive.
Zero g would fit with a complete inflight breakup.
The aircraft was about to commence avoidance for a strong storm cell. It hadn't entered the cell yet, but that doesn't mean much.
A full pitch down command might also fit the data, whether pilot commanded or caused by some software or physical failure, such as a control wire burnthrough (cargo bay fire?)
So, several possibilities. Difficult to tell whether an overspeed dive caused the breakup, or the other way around.
Whatever happened, happened very quickly. Did they encounter extreme turbulence, downdraft (tornado/extreme wind shear)? Nearby aircraft were reporting heavy rain and moderate chop but an embedded cell might have shown a different set of conditions.
Caco
Re: Freighter crash, Houston
Posted: Sun Feb 24, 2019 8:11 am
by flynverted
Well feck me. My local news been saying it crashed on takeoff from Houston.. I figured out of balance load or load shift on takeoff...
Now i see they were landing in Houston...
I spent heaps of time in the Houston area... It's like Florida... The wx can change in the blink of an eye...
Re: Freighter crash, Houston
Posted: Sun Feb 24, 2019 10:01 am
by Ex-Ascot
A very interesting one. Does look like a break up mid air so unlikely to be a down draft factor. One thing is for sure there will be a lot of beach combing going on there in Trinity Bay.
I you want a laugh go to TOP. Bird strike has been suggested. Unlikely to be the cause but one guy says that birds do not fly that high anyway. Someone has suggested that why bother bringing in the investigators, just ask the experts on Pprune.
Low flying birds: read a report many years ago about Geese flying VMC between layers at 180. Lockheed Electra collected one through centre windscreen and it finished up in the tail. Fortunately the cabin staff had just finished the walk round.
Not suggesting for one minor that it was birds.
Re: Freighter crash, Houston
Posted: Sun Feb 24, 2019 12:53 pm
by Pontius Navigator
The 6,000 feet/16 seconds suggests around 240 kts average descent speed. With a terminal of 486 kts it that consistent with an in-flight breakup at height?
To my mind that suggests an intact powered descent with an in-flight breakup, if that was the case, much later.
The 6,000 feet/16 seconds suggests around 240 kts average descent speed. With a terminal of 486 kts it that consistent with an in-flight breakup at height?
To my mind that suggests an intact powered descent with an in-flight breakup, if that was the case, much later.
+1
Caco
Re: Freighter crash, Houston
Posted: Sun Feb 24, 2019 1:59 pm
by Ex-Ascot
PN this one is a real puzzle.
For information - Ruppell’s Griffon Vulture – 37,000 feet. Actually I thought it was the albatross that went the highest. Wonder if they wear oxygen masks or pressurise.
Re: Freighter crash, Houston
Posted: Sun Feb 24, 2019 2:29 pm
by Cacophonix
The presence of strong storm cells in the vicinity must be one of the factors that will engage the interest of the crash investigators here I guess, midst many other possible causal factors.
There have been instances in the recent past where aircraft have encountered strong up or downdrafts or even tornadoes that have precipitated mid air breakups or loss of control, even if only temporary.
This video is quite remarkable... fortunately this tornado was a weak EF0 (wind +- 65 - 85 miles an hour).
Caco
Re: Freighter crash, Houston
Posted: Sun Feb 24, 2019 3:30 pm
by Pontius Navigator
I wonder at the accuracy of the height and speed data. I quoted speed but look at the ROD, 24,000ft per minute average is some ROD. It must have been under power.
I wonder at the accuracy of the height and speed data. I quoted speed but look at the ROD, 24,000ft per minute average is some ROD. It must have been under power.
Erroneously reading altimeter due to damage to the system possibly as a result of the incipient break up of the aircraft or maybe due to large pressure variations over a very short distance perhaps. In the instance of the NLM Hopper crash noted above the altimeter noted a sudden climb when the low pressure of a funnel was encountered whereas, in fact, the aircraft was descending rapidly.
Anyway I am going to cease my speculation and wait with interest for the official report.
I wonder at the accuracy of the height and speed data. I quoted speed but look at the ROD, 24,000ft per minute average is some ROD. It must have been under power.
Erroneously reading altimeter due to damage to the system possibly as a result of the incipient break up of the aircraft or maybe due to large pressure variations over a very short distance perhaps. In the instance of the NLM Hopper crash noted above the altimeter noted a sudden climb when the low pressure of a funnel was encountered whereas, in fact, the aircraft was descending rapidly.
Anyway I am going to cease my speculation and wait with interest for the official report.
Caco
Yes indeed Caco we are not going to do a TOP t@sser's amateur armchair analysis. However, I think we may have a better idea when they have extracted the recorders from the beach combers looking for mobile phones and Ipads.
Re: Freighter crash, Houston
Posted: Sun Feb 24, 2019 5:28 pm
by Boac
I think we should ignore all the 'supposed' readings offered so far until the FDR is recovered. RoD, IAS, altitude etc all subject to errors if taken from ADSB. Even eye-witnesses are suspect, as we know. We do not 'know' it broke up in mid-air, that is just my speculation based on what I see of the debris. If you want more of that, I am wondering bomb - from a 'loyal' right-wing anti-Bezos/Amazon idiot.
I think we should ignore all the 'supposed' readings offered so far until the FDR is recovered. RoD, IAS, altitude etc all subject to errors if taken from ADSB. Even eye-witnesses are suspect, as we know. We do not 'know' it broke up in mid-air, that is just my speculation based on what I see of the debris. If you want more of that, I am wondering bomb - from a 'loyal' right-wing anti-Bezos/Amazon idiot.
Your speculation has the virtue of being reasonably informed Boac and is rational in that there is some basis for your thoughts on the matter.
I have just had the misfortune to do something I very seldom do and that is look at TOP and the relevant thread there. There we have people proposing that the aircraft was struck by eagles, caught in an alien attack craft's tractor beam etc. etc. all the while self-righteously sniping at each other on the basis of more hours in armchairs, 747's, their mothers' basement etc. etc. The few genuinely useful comments are drowned out in the general clamour to be at the top of the class pontificating on how this accident happened while viciously putting all in sundry around them down. Dare I say it, it is almost enough to make me actually feel sorry for Robin Lloyd!
It is quite hilarious really. At least we don't take ourselves too seriously here anyway!
Caco
Re: Freighter crash, Houston
Posted: Sun Feb 24, 2019 6:48 pm
by Pontius Navigator
May be it was a midair and things become clearer as bits of MH370 are found.
