737 crash departing Teheran

[Boac]

Here's something puzzling/concerning - apparently the US military 'did not realise' what their satellite/s saw, which was the acquisition radar for the TOR switching on and the light from 2 missile launches until the 'next day' . So much for monitoring Iranian missile launches, then? Be alert - everyone needs a lert.

On the other foot, it would appear that 2 x TOR missiles did not cause a major break-up of the 737, as most of the wreckage was in the same area some way away from the reported hit location. That does not look like a good PK to me.

[llondel]

Sometimes you see what you expect, and they probably did not expect to see that and so it took them a while to comprehend. OTOH, they'll probably recalibrate their systems and be better at it next time. Either that, or they knew instantly and wanted to keep quiet while the story developed in case they could get some propaganda out of it, or wanted to get non-Iranian people on-site to prevent Iran from a cover-up when it was revealed.

[boing]

This explains Trump's mild reaction to the attack on the US bases. About 1930 hours EST Iranians launch missiles at Iraqi bases, around 2200 hours EST the airliner is shot down. I would find it difficult to believe that US intelligence was not monitoring every communication and movement in Iran minutely. A report is passed on to Trump. Trump decides that he does not want any speech or event to take away from the Iranian mistake so he slides the evidence to UK and Canada and then sits quietly waiting for the news to break and embarrass the Iranians.

I thought that it was odd that he did not go into one of his bluster sessions.

.

[AtomKraft]

I've always been a great believer in that old saying, "What goes around, comes around", but the irony meter is really stuck at one end of its travel here.

One jet shot down over Ukraine, now a Ukrainian jet destroyed in the same manner.
One Iranian jet shot down, revenge taken, but now Iran commits the same offence they obtained revenge for.

I guess they must be thinking something along the lines of "Are the Ukrainians going to take the same line we took, and if not- were we perhaps a teensy bit over the top with our revenge?".

After all, if the Ukrainians can excuse our mistake, why couldn't we excuse the Vincennes?

I'm sure there must be some serious introspection occurring in Tehran.

[Sisemen]

I think that they may have forgotten the old mantra that while the mistake is bad enough the subsequent cover-up will get you into deep, deep *****.

[Sisemen]

Annnnd there we have it! Had they read my post above??

[TheGreenGoblin]

There was no plausible deniability in this one.

Catastrophic error

I suspect an Iranian missile battery crew are now about to lose their heads.

The Russians must take their share of the blame here too for proliferating relatively advanced missile systems into the hands of unscrupulous and/or ill trained actors vide. the shoot down of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 (MH17).

The Ukranians have form here too using Soviet era technology...

Siberia airlines flight downed

The laws of unintended consequences always play a hand in these things and the exacerbation of regional tensions also had a role to play in this tragedy and the USA should also think about that. They did not brief their partners as to what they were going to do in this region and thus risked many innocent lives.

And let's not forget the Iran Air Flight 655 debacle.

[Rwy in Sight]

As I said before Iran and Ukraine are the most experienced in shooting down civilian airliners with a Iran a step ahead having one shoot down of their own by the opposition and shoot down one by themselves. AtomKraft did an excellent analysis. I am wondering if Iran will learn something from it or it will be down to evil America and Allah's will.

TGG excellent point about arms to people you can't trust but to be fair Americans started it with the Talibans in Afghanistan.

[barkingmad]

But they’re crowing over the delay between the 655/Vincennes incident and the 4 year delay until the magazine ‘Newsweek’ finally told the ‘truth’.
Whereas it’s only been 3 days of lying and obfuscation by them over the Ukrainian tragedy and anyway the ‘US takes the bulk of the blame’ for the circumstances leading up to the latest atrocity.
They shot it down.
They lied about it despite the evidence.
Contrary to normal international practice they’ve cleared up the accident site having allowed all and sundry to tramp around it.
So that’s all right then, they believe they have moral superiority.

[Boac]

A far as 'international politics' are concerned, my view is that the admission by Iran closes this and apart from those directly affected we should be able to draw a line under it.

We do, however, now have the big question - is Iranian airspace safe for international aviation? As far as I am aware, the flight followed a 'normal' departure from Tehran with no major deviation. Thus it surely must be assumed that that route, at least, is no longer 'safe' to fly.

Then we have to look at high-level transit traffic. Just as with the Ukraine, someone needs to look at whether the missile systems could be a threat to high-level traffic - and this time get it right!

If the international community wants to 'punish' Iran it would seem a no-brainer to close Iranian airspace - at least Tehran airport - to international traffic. That will hurt big.

[Sisemen]

At least this time it is unlikely that the Ukraine will take reprisals by bombing an Iranian airliner. Tend to be a bit more civilised than the rag heads.

[barkingmad]

At least this time it is unlikely that the Ukraine will take reprisals by bombing an Iranian airliner. Tend to be a bit more civilised than the rag heads.

Unlike PA103, the Iranians and the PFLP-GC in 1988.

I wonder when ‘normal’ operations will resume into this part of the sandpit? The closure of surrounding airspace to flights to/from Iran would hurt but how would it be enforced?

[Boac]

1) By ATC/Flight Plans/NOTAM
2) By lack of insurance cover
3) Lack of fare-paying passengers

That would be enough. Anyone wanting to continue under that lid would be welcome.

[barkingmad]

Those at the top of the Iranian govt food chain might look at those reasons and think

1) Don’t care, just launch and try to get to friendly country.

2) Don’t care, if all else fails ‘Allah Uh Akhbar’.

3) Not their problem, they own the ‘frames and the fuel.

Not much evidence of fact, logic and reasoning being demonstrated by them at present.

Ultimately one would be looking at a ‘no fly zone’ around their airspace, very difficult to enforce.

[Boac]

BM - the airspace closure would not be there to stop the Iranians, don't you know? I think you have misunderstood ''sanctions'.

[TheGreenGoblin]

In the NOTAM's

Airspace security warning issued by the department for transport in
Response to the hazardous situation in iran. Potential risk from heightened military activity and dedicated anti-aviation weaponry in iran. Operators are advised not to enter the territory and airspace of iran (including the tehran FIR). For information contact UK department for transport +44 (0)207 944 6322 or +44 (0)207 944 5999 out of hours. 2020-01-0122/AS4

[Pontius Navigator]

TGG, not so sure about punishing the missile crew. They achieve lock on a relatively low crossing target at short range. They proved their technical expertise.

Don't knock their competence either. Years ago Lockheed provided C130s but their level but their level of technical training delivered by Lockheed was much less than RAF training. One had a prop seal leak. They couldn't find the Lockheed rep and asked the RAF embassy guy who happened to be Herc trained. He showed them the job was easy. Lockheed were pissed off as they recharged bucks for everything.

Move on a few years, all support fire the F14 was withdrawn but contrary to the general opinion they kept them flying.

Admittedly their overall national competence would be low but not negligible.

[TheGreenGoblin]

TGG, not so sure about punishing the missile crew. They achieve lock on a relatively low crossing target at short range. They proved their technical expertise.

PN your point is well made and taken by me. I guess I was alluding more to the fact that the Mullahs might need to be seen to punish somebody for political reasons and the people at the bottom of the command chain seem a likely target. I may very well be wrong in that though.

[Boac]

Absolutely, TGG - who else would they punish? Ultimately whoever pressed the launch buttons screwed up. PNN - think again about what the crew actually saw and did (PS Does 'fire' mean 'for'?). Known commercial route, 'target' climbing' - shades of Vincennes - except they were praised.

No-one in this particular glasshouse can really throw stones but someone's head has to go, like the Saudi Embassy in Istanbul.

[Capetonian]

Human error.

Iran’s president, Hassan Rouhani, tweeted: “Investigations continue to identify & prosecute this great tragedy & unforgivable mistake.”
“The Islamic Republic of Iran deeply regrets this disastrous mistake. My thoughts and prayers go to all the mourning families. I offer my sincerest condolences.

Why did it take 3 days for the ‘error’ to be discovered and admitted?

This shows a lack of accountability and responsibility.

Those responsible will be ‘prosecuted’. That may mean they will be executed as scapegoats but it neither instils confidence nor does it in any any way mitigate the enormity of the tragedy for the families and friends of the deceased.

Where lies the blame? With poorly trained operators, or with the Russians who so happily and freely supply missiles to rogue regimes? Or with airlines that choose to operate in regions that are demonstrably unstable and dangerous.

In all this, I feel sorry for the Iranian people, by and large immensely cultured, educated, and civilised people whose beautiful country is run by a cabal of madmen.

I offer no conclusion or solution, for there isn’t one. Just expressing my sadness at this.