Libya

[Boac]

Things 'warming up' in Libya with reports of 'Russian' Mig29s on the ground there and Turkish strike aircraft involved, possibly tanked on the way.

[barkingmad]

Can't find anything more recent than this from the 'Grauniad', 4 days ago.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... ya-airbase

I doubt if the EU Operation Irini will have too much effect on land-borne troops coming in from neighbouring states?

With everyone looking down into microscopes searching for Covids it would appear top be a good time to kick off some action there in the hope that the big players will be suitably distracted?

[Boac]

There were reports of a supposed 'training exercise' involving Turkish aircraft that appears to have involved some possible 'training bomb dropping' on Libya..... I believe some Turkish 'assets' in Libya have been attacked. It is all quite confusing - it looks as if Turkey is fighting the Russian backed folk while cosying up to Russia at home?

[ian16th]

Turkey seems to be getting very bolshie these days.

Should we send reinforcements to Akrotiri?

[Boac]

Further to my post above https://edition.cnn.com/2020/05/26/poli ... index.html (Note to Trumpanistas - you can ignore this, it is from CNN)

Russia is stepping up its miltary involvement in Libya. Note this excerpt from my link

"Earlier this month, the Russian Air Force jets flew from Russia to Khmeimim Air Base in Syria, where the MiG-29 jets were repainted to remove national markings, a US defense official told CNN.
The newly unmarked jets then departed Syria, escorted by Russian fighter aircraft based in Syria, and flew to Libya, landing in Eastern Libya near Tobruk for fuel, according to the official. The warplanes were then delivered to Al Jufra Air Base in Libya, closer to the front lines of the country's civil war."

Add in increased 'aggression' over the Eastern Med and fasten your seat belts https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/3 ... iterranean

[TheGreenGoblin]

Interesting to note that the Russian preferred Libyan warlord du jour is an ex-CIA stooge.

Who is Haftar...

The US administration has until recently taken no clear view on the Libyan civil war, but its assessment of the Russian intervention and dramatic warning about the wider implications for Europe’s security may be leading the US Department of State to offer clearer support to the UN-recognised Government of National Accord (GNA) in Tripoli.

Some Libyan experts did not view the Russian jets as a threat to Europe but a deterrent against Turkish forces, which back the GNA, pushing for an offensive to drive Haftar out of Libya’s oil crescent. His forces have in effect closed Libya’s oil fields and blocked exports.

It has already been reported that mercenaries under the command of the Wagner Group, a Russian paramilitary organisation, have retreated from western Libya where they had been supporting Haftar’s year-long offensive to seize Tripoli.

Haftar’s forces, known as the Libyan National Army, have suffered a series of reverses in the past month and in reorganising their defence lines appear to have acknowledged that their Tripoli offensive is suspended.

But the US claimed that the retreat by the Wagner Group may not denote a wider Russian disengagement from Libya, saying the Russian planes were designed to support the group’s activities.

One will remember both Crimea's and Ukraine's ubiquitous little green men who appeared as Russia proxies were a mix of Wagner men with a small number of Russian officers in mufti. Another day, another country, similar modus operandi. Same inchoate foreign affairs policy from the USA.

[Boac]

http://www.airrecognition.com/index.php ... libya.html

[Pontius Navigator]

Looks like the perfect target for a JP233 attack followed by plinking each shed in turn. I suppose you could achieve the same effect with a smart bomb on each access track. Mind you, a B2 could plink the lot in one pass.

I don't know how new that kit is but the Spoonrest goes back more than 50 years, the Fencers around 40 and the Fulcrum 30.

[Boac]

It looks from the pic as if the a/c are nicely lined up in a row!

[TheGreenGoblin]

The Russians know they are not going to be interdicted by any competent or modern air force (with the very small risk of coming up against the Turks, which if it happened would be their perfect pretext for official involvement) but also know that the aged aircraft and radar they do have there could be a game changer in turning the tide in attacking the "technicals" and other Heath Robinson armament arraigned against Hafta's forces who are on the back foot at the moment. The Russian aircraft will be flown by mercenaries and their aim will be to seize bases on Libya's coast, as a possible precursor to a more "official" Russian presence in the country.

[TheGreenGoblin]

If the Russians have moved the P-18H radar into Libya then their approach may not be so shabby after all as this kit might afford them anti-stealth ability and an ability to keep a weather eye out for NATO aircraft while not risking capture of their far more advanced technology. The Spoon Rest installation filmed by the US satellite is probably being used primarily in an ATC role.

The Russians are past masters at being strategically canny and only escalating kit and troop insertions in a gradated manner!

The Russians were operating Spoon Rest radars in Africa (see Angola) back in the early 80's.

https://www.cia.gov/library/readingroom ... 0001-9.pdf

[tango15]

I suspect this may be a ploy by Mr Putin to secure a second warm-water port in the Med. The Syria thing has just about run its' course and there is always the danger that Assad could be less generous towards them now or in the future. Russia has long sought such a base and no doubt had a long and careful look at Cyprus, but was put off by the British/NATO activity at Akrotiri et al. In effect, the Russians have already invaded Cyprus in all but name; tens of thousands of Russians have made Cyprus their home, (I was shocked by how much Cyrillic script was to be seen, especially around Limassol, when I was there a few years ago). Visas for Cyprus are issued to Russians through the Embassy of Cyprus in Moscow by e-mail for free. The Republic has also borrowed significant amounts of money from Moscow (nb rather than the EU, of which it is of course a member), in recent years, but Cyprus may be a longer-term objective. Anyway, back to Libya. Very little attention is being paid by the western media to events there, which will suit the Russians entirely. There is something of a power vacuum, the perfect opportunity to sneak materiel onto the scene. The US seems reluctant to be formally involved, no doubt well aware of Russia's intentions. With the price of oil on the floor at the moment and plenty of other sources to go at, there seems little point in them becoming overtly involved and they do not seem to be lending much support to their ageing puppet Khalifa Haftar, which will suit the Russians to a tee. I have ordered extra popcorn...

[Pontius Navigator]

The Greek Cyps have form. Back on the 60s they imported an SA2 system and some 'agricultural' equipment. The 'tractors' were impounded and the Turks gave them a good reason for not unpacking the missile system.

But then they invaded anyway.

[TheGreenGoblin]

I suspect this may be a ploy by Mr Putin to secure a second warm-water port in the Med. The Syria thing has just about run its' course and there is always the danger that Assad could be less generous towards them now or in the future. Russia has long sought such a base and no doubt had a long and careful look at Cyprus, but was put off by the British/NATO activity at Akrotiri et al. In effect, the Russians have already invaded Cyprus in all but name; tens of thousands of Russians have made Cyprus their home, (I was shocked by how much Cyrillic script was to be seen, especially around Limassol, when I was there a few years ago). Visas for Cyprus are issued to Russians through the Embassy of Cyprus in Moscow by e-mail for free. The Republic has also borrowed significant amounts of money from Moscow (nb rather than the EU, of which it is of course a member), in recent years, but Cyprus may be a longer-term objective. Anyway, back to Libya. Very little attention is being paid by the western media to events there, which will suit the Russians entirely. There is something of a power vacuum, the perfect opportunity to sneak materiel onto the scene. The US seems reluctant to be formally involved, no doubt well aware of Russia's intentions. With the price of oil on the floor at the moment and plenty of other sources to go at, there seems little point in them becoming overtly involved and they do not seem to be lending much support to their ageing puppet Khalifa Haftar, which will suit the Russians to a tee. I have ordered extra popcorn...

A very credible synopsis of the perfidious Bear's potential motivations... as you say watch that space.

[boing]

The only problem remaining for the Russians is that Turkey still sits on the Bosporus (or Bosphorus depending on when you went to school).

Reminds me of whenever before Gaddafi moved in. Reports of an unusual number of Russian ships in Tripoli with an unusual number of very fit looking sailors.

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[Pontius Navigator]

Reminds me of whenever before Gaddafi moved in. Reports of an unusual number of Russian ships in Tripoli with an unusual number of very fit looking sailors.

Are you sure about your chronology?

Under King Idris the USAF used Wheelus AFB and we had El Adem. When Gadaffi took over we pulled out rather than being pushed out, and the Russians moved in, same as they did in Egypt. Gadaffi got Blinder bomber and Foxbat fighters and I think he had Mirage too. The anchorage was a regular target for the Nimrod sqn in Malta.

[ian16th]

Reminds me of whenever before Gaddafi moved in. Reports of an unusual number of Russian ships in Tripoli with an unusual number of very fit looking sailors.

Are you sure about your chronology?

Under King Idris the USAF used Wheelus AFB and we had El Adem. When Gadaffi took over we pulled out rather than being pushed out, and the Russians moved in, same as they did in Egypt. Gadaffi got Blinder bomber and Foxbat fighters and I think he had Mirage too. The anchorage was a regular target for the Nimrod sqn in Malta.

And RAF Idris! previously Castel Benito.

[boing]

"When Gaddafi took over we pulled out rather than being pushed out".

Not quite so simple. There were already numbers of Russian merchant ships docked or at anchor on the Libyan coast. I guess Tripoli was the port referred to in the report I read which stated, paraphrased, that there were an unusual amount of Russian merchant ships in the area and they had a greater than normal number of crewmen on board. The "crewmen" did not look like sailors.

Around the 20th of August 1969 an exercise was called in Akrotiri and the Vulcans were loaded, as we later found out, with a full conventional bomb load. The exercise dragged on for an unusually long time and initially we were issued with firearms (something I had never seen before). After the long delay the fleet launched on the 28th of August 1969 for a high level flight to Libya terminating with low level attacks on El Adem range in stream. On the 1st September 1969 the coup in Libya was carried out leading to Gaddafi taking control.

I was not aware of this but I understand there were unusual exercises taking place in the UK at the same time.

I suspect we were the futile gesture launched in the blind hope that someone in Libya would chicken out.

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[Pontius Navigator]

Boring, interesting, certainly on exercise later on we were always issued pistols but no ammunition. On one occasion we were all issued with ammunition. It was probably '72. Stacey was the stn cdr. There was a real security threat and Stacey declared that he would not have a mix of live armed guards and unarmed exercise players.

[boing]

I hope the use of Boring is a malapropism rather than sarcasm !!!

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