Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

[boing]

News, late in the evening US West Coast time, that there is a massive traffic jam, Russia bound, on the Kerch Bridge. Apparently no damage on the bridge so why is traffic stopped on it? Traffic is bound for Russia so if the problem is on the Crimea end of the bridge you would expect traffic already on the bridge to simply continue on to Russia..

Reports of explosions in various other unconfirmed locations but only Simferopol specifically mentioned on the rumour chain. One possibility mentioned is that it is believed the bridge will be attacked so all traffic on the bridge has been stopped.

Present reports suggest that Crimea bound traffic is already being diverted by the Northern land route. If this is true someone appears to expect lengthy delays.

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[OFSO]

Metro.co.uk: Huge fire engulfs Russian oil refinery in suspected sabotage attack.
https://metro.co.uk/2022/12/19/huge-fir ... -17960572/

The only question is who is carrying out these attacks.

[boing]

A fellow named Peter Zeihan does some nice presentations on the weaknesses of various energy sources. One item he points out is that if crude oil flow stops in the pipelines in a very low temperature situation the crude congeals in the pipe and the water content freezes causing long term damage which could take years to correct.

I don't know anything about the magic of oil well drilling and pipelines but I would imagine the supply lines to this plant are in that danger.

It is quite likely that the Russians have always depended on the isolation of these plants for their security and they are now seeing their mistake.

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[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

I recall a security inquiry into the James Bay Hydro plants in Canada by the TV people. Hundreds of miles from anywhere, but when they got there they could just wander around the place - no guards, fences, or even any locked doors. So I expect it's the same in Siberia. Locks do freeze up easily, so unlocked is much preferred.

[Pontius Navigator]

Bit like where I went to school. To avoid being locked out and loosing your keys they were kept in a safe place, in the door lock.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Zelensky has just turned up in Bakhmut to meet the troops and hand out medals, looks like in some abandoned factory.
There is also video of him inspecting in the open air


Russia claims Shoigu also visited the front line, but provided no details or identifiable locations. Likely Total BS.

Ukraine has hit the electricity sub-station in Shebekino, Russia, less than 5 miles over the border.
Looks like a very carefully chosen target. It's very close to the town centre, but just over the river on an otherwise empty river bank.
Smoke column visible to everyone in the town, but a near miss wouldn't have hit any civilian buildings.
50.414276, 36.897317
The town is reportedly without electricity or water.

Damage to Russia's oil and gas infrastructure now seems to be happening on a daily basis.
Yesterday a pipeline about 400 miles east of Moscow caught fire.

Continued pressure by putin on Lukashenko to get Belarus involved. ISW still assess this as highly unlikely, the Uke General Staff also thinks so, and I concur.

Partisan activity in southern Kherson and Crimea continues.
Latest example was a possible mine on the road across the eastern isthmus linking the two regions.
The target was an ammo truck, so obviously locally-triggered with sight of the road (unless they were just very lucky).

Precision strikes by the Ukes on ammo, fuel, and troop accommodations continue, including Tokmak.

So all the prep activity for a big assault, but no assault yet.
They will still be waiting for freeze-up in the south, but of course there may be other reasons why the assaults don't happen immediately after freeze-up - we can't tell.

[PHXPhlyer]

US to send precision bomb kits and Patriot missiles in next Ukraine aid package, officials say

https://www.cnn.com/2022/12/20/politics ... index.html

The US is expected to send Ukraine precision bomb kits that will turn existing unguided munitions, or “dumb” bombs, into precision-guided “smart” bombs known as Joint Direct Attack Munitions, or JDAMs, according to multiple US officials.

The kits add fins and a precision guidance system to the “dumb” munitions. They are expected to be included in the next security aid package to Ukraine as soon as this week, the sources said, though officials did not say how many JDAMs would be provided, or what specific type.

The precision bombs could help Ukraine attack fixed Russian defensive lines or other large targets. But they need to be dropped from fighter jets, which remains a significant challenge because of Russia’s own air defenses.

The Ukrainian military would also need to find a way to target and launch JDAMs from Soviet-era aircraft, much as they did with US-made HARM anti-radar missiles earlier this year. The Ukrainian Air Force adapted MiG-29 fighter jets to be able to fire the HARM missile. They will have to do the same for JDAMs.

The kits can be connected to bombs of different weights and sizes, ranging from a 500-pound bomb to one that is 2,000 pounds. The munitions then use a combination of GPS and an inertial guidance system to strike a target with precision. An additional system can also give the bomb laser guidance to strike a moving target.

The US used JDAMs extensively in Iraq and Afghanistan. The kits have been exported to more than two dozen other countries, according to Boeing, the manufacturer of the kits. To date, more than 400,000 kits have been produced at a cost of approximately $22,000 per kit.

The kits, first reported by The Washington Post, give the bombs a range of approximately 15 miles, according to Boeing.

The next aid package to Ukraine is also expected to include Patriot air defense systems, as CNN first reported last week.

The US has provided billions of dollars in aid to Ukraine since the beginning of Russia’s invasion in February, and sees it as effective in helping the Ukrainians fight back. While Ukraine has asked for certain weapon systems, like the Patriot missile defense system, the Biden administration has had a careful approach to what is provided to Ukraine and when.

The JDAMs do not carry a serious risk of escalation, one official said, because of their relatively short range, similar to other weapons the US has provided. The kits would not allow Ukraine to strike deep into Russian territory. The precision Excalibur rounds fired from Ukrainian artillery have approximately the same range, while the Guided Multiple Rocket Launch System missiles launched from High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) have a significantly longer range than JDAMs.

PP

[boing]

All very clever I'm sure but what happens to the pipeline if the destination refinery cannot accept the crude due to damage. You have an oil field at one end, a refinery at the other in a remote location, full pipes and no crude flow. Can you shut off the output of an oil field in sub-zero conditions?

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[Pontius Navigator]

And that answers one question, in that there should be sufficient capacity in the slops tank. However 4ma used a crucial word, 'refined'. In the Russian case we are presumably referring to unrefined crude.
If you can't ship your refined product and reach capacity you are tucked.

[admin2]

I have moved the thread on oil pipes, intelligent pigs and spherical objects to viewtopic.php?f=60&t=7714 to avoid cluttering up the war thread.

[boing]

The Swaliki Corridor which connects Russian controlled territory to Kaliningrad Oblast begins in north west Belarus. NATO cannot close down the Corridor deliberately but a few Belarus partisans could make supply of Kaliningrad more difficult and divert a considerable number of RussoBelarus forces and if Belarus should become a combatant or have a change of government who knows what would happen?

What a shame if Putin was to lose use of both Kaliningrad and Sevastopol. All that oil and gas development in Kaliningrad also, what a shame.

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[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Remarkable! - Ukes using rescue drones to recover drowned drones

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

[boing]

Publicly Poland has supported Ukraine and we know they have built up their forces on the border with Belarus. Their statements have been quite reserved and diplomatic but underneath the diplomatic language we can see that the Poles never, never, ever want to see Russians along their border. They see any creep of Russia towards their border as long term preparation for an invasion. Remember Katyn, the Poles do.

I feel it is 50/50 on how they will react in the event of a RussoBelarus buildup in Belarus. They are quite likely to say screw NATO discussions the games on, it will be a delicate trip wire.

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[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

I agree the Poles are particularly concerned.
I also think putin has and will again try to exploit this sensitivity. Any aggressive direct action by Poland would enable him to claim a NATO attack at home, putting him in an unassailable domestic position.
Kaliningrad is an obvious part of the tripwire.

[boing]

I have always been fascinated by the results of "The Law of Unintended Consequences" and the history of the Suwalki Corridor is a beautiful case in point. Cobbled together, amended for convenience and overtaken by events.

It is, in fact, difficult to find an answer to the simple question "Who owns the Suwalki Corridor? Try it yourself on the internet. I have lost interest in chasing all of the circular logic and obfuscation.

The facts appear to be that Russia has an historic and force majeure usage of the territory but the details of how this situation arose involve early 1900s wars between Lithuania and Poland, the Soviet takeover of Eastern Europe, the subsequent break up of the Union and present day real-politik. During the Soviet period Poland and Lithuania were Russian controlled territories so the status of the Corridor did not really matter. However, with the break up of the Soviet Union the status of the Corridor was in question but it appears the problem was hidden by Polish acceptance that Russia still had rights to use the corridor. An attempt by Russia to gain official acceptance of their right to the corridor in the early 1990's failed. As recently as 2020 adjacent states exerted some control of the corridor by banning transport of military supplies through the corridor as a result of the invasion of Ukraine.

So what is the present situation? Poland and Lithuania accept the traditional use of the corridor by Russia knowing that Russia would get super-duper PO'ed if anything changed. Kaliningrad is one of their Jewels in the Crown. BU (Before Ukraine) everyone thought that closure of the corridor would result in major land battles with Russian forces with the potential of a nuclear exchange but, AU, everyone knows they can forget the major land battles but the Nukes are still a last Russian resort. But what about something more subtle and less attributable? If Belarus attacks Ukraine then anywhere in Belarus becomes a legitimate target, Guess what, Russia has no legal, internationally recognised, route across Belarus that enables it to get to the Eastern end of the Corridor. This is where the Law of Unintended Consequences rears its fascinating head.

Say a few Belarus partizans were to blow up a few sections of the highways and railways feeding Kaliningrad through the corridor, not in the actual corridor but on Belarus territory? Can't find the partizans, can't blame the Ukrainians because Belarus invaded Ukraine and damage is to be expected. Russia and no doubt Belarus need to use forces to defend the corridor where will they come from? Kaliningrad sees logistics difficulties, what a shame, There is no other way to get to Kaliningrad by land without triggering NATO, the Law strikes again. Other options exist, what if Luschenko is replaced by a more pro-western ruler? What if Ukraine actually fights its way to northwest Belarus? Ukraine has no logical reason to desire Kaliningrad but they could probably enjoy the diversion of Russian forces into remote Belarus for a while and NATO would be quite grateful.

Russia loses effective use of Kaliningrad and Sevastopol, it's ice-free ports

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Well, the easy solution, and no doubt the one the Russians would take, is that actions by Belarussian partisans would be blamed on Ukrainians and/or Poles, depending on what putin wanted.
If reality does not give a Dictator what he wants, then simply lie.

[boing]

There are several videos available but this one makes the point.

"Rapid Dragon", every C130 becomes a B52. Big advantage, no pressure breathing and hot food from the galley.



Let's see, a C17, should hold two pallets wide and five long, sounds like 40 cruise missiles. Bet you could come up with a similar system for JDAMS too.

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[boing]

Did you see this, every man in the room is wishing he was somewhere else, anywhere else.

[boing]

Fox,
If he blames it on the Poles what does he do, his choice is to go up against NATO or lose face?
If he blames it on the Ukrainians they wear it as a badge of honour and he makes the Russians look incompetent.

It's safer to blame those darned smokers.

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