Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

[probes]

A new definition of Having A Bad Day...

A Russian soldier is caught in the open in broad daylight by an FPV drone, carrying nothing but two plastic 4l containers of gasoline.
One does have to question the sanity of both whoever sent him for the gasoline, and indeed himself for choosing to walk in the open when there were trees available on a longer route.

Maybe he had stolen it and was trying to avoid being caught by the commander, or something?

[probes]

Air defence base in the Ai-Petri, the Crimea, damaged. "The radars of the South Coast are the most famous military facility in Greater Yalta (coordinates 44.481491, 34.033617)."
In Volgograd a fuel train derailed.
An Alligator and a SU-25 down.
As for the shoigu ministry, most officials fired or arrested or left, due to massive theft investigation, reportedly. The new guy is supposed to have been tasked with modernising the mil system, but he's been more like an academic than a hands-on man, so it's risky for putin. Plus, the ones chased away from the pot of gold (mil finances) can't be too happy about it.

Kharkiv direction - ruz is advancing in the grey zone, some mess with UKR comms and the mine fields should have been more serious obstacles. ruz is still expected not to be able to actually reach Kharkiv. Almost 2000 ruz troops lost yesterday (the 'reguar count' is about a thousand). ruz is trying hard in their 'old' directions and some analysts wonder why there's no progress around Bakhmut, given the troops and tanks ruz has there. But there's hope of the US and Czech aid reaching the front. Having reached already, some of it.
The UK will assign 3.7 bil for military purposes to UKR each year.

Blinken is in Kiyv till tomorrow.

[Hydromet]

Thanks to those who have some expertise in these matters, especially Probes & Fox3, for your analyses of the situation.

[probes]

Thank you! - my humble contribution is based on information form real experts, of course.

Ukrainian soldier holds off four Russians from DWail, couldn't find just the video.

Fox will, I'm sure .

[probes]

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

The Russians have captured a shoe factory and a meat processing plant in northern Vovchansk.*

Any claims that they are kicking ass may therefore be dismissed as only referring to cows' asses, and dead ones at that.


*I'm not making this up...
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgr ... ay-13-2024

[probes]

A military equipment manufacturing plant caught fire in the Moscow region. A fire at an electrical substation in Balashikha the night before. That's on the territory of the FSB unit No 35533, part of the mil research and development staff.

Massive explosions in the Crimea, the mil airfield again.

UKR, Budanov, reported that ruz abandoned plan to enter Sumy due to complications in Kharkiv direction. And that the Kharkiv front will be stabilised soon.
‘I’ll Put a D-30 on You’ – Russian Commander Coerces Soldiers to Advance in Kharkiv Region Under Threat of Death. The general situation is 'volatile', as neither side has strong established positions there.

ruz has been effective recruiting young marginalised people and the unemployed in Europe for simple sabotage - videos, photos, even graffiti in suitable places has been analysed/geolocated and used for targeting aid to UKR.

Chinese banks have to outsmart the secondary sanctions to carry on activities with ruz.

Blinken and Stoltenberg keep claiming the time is with UKR and that UKR is going to be a NATO member and EU member... well, weren't the EU and US (and other) leaders told it's not wise to give ruz time to adapt and adjust?? So much time has been lost, and so many lives.

putin has not made significant changes in his government, and what he has done indicates he's not happy with the war dragging on for so long.

Blinken staying in Kiyv for such a long time is impressive, but his big words of supporting UKR until NATO membership are just words, considering the situation currently, of no real help.

The situation in Georgia is getting more nervous - the govt presses on with the pro-ruz law, demonstrations etc against it, more than the police can handle (a couple of days already).

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Extensive fires at Balbek air base in Crimea, on the main flight line. Concrete does not burn; well, not like this anyway

https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/ma ... .68,14.00z
Google maps shows parking for about 40 fighters in this area, with 24 aircraft shown on Google maps.

Update: More on the Belbek strike
https://mstdn.social/@noelreports/112444359590404051
n.b. video shown is in GIF format (looped), actually running for 1 min 12 seconds from 02:11:48 to 02:13:00.
I don't think we can tell much, due to the poor quality of the camera and the low cloud, but there's certainly a good fire burning, and maybe one large secondary.

[probes]

Yep, more expected from Belbek.

As for the poor defence lines - unlike the period when ruz mined huge territories, it's not been possible for UKR now close to ruz border, with drones everywhere, and ruz shooting anything that moves in the Kharkiv direction. Also geography is said to be on ruz side until they get to Vovchansk, and they probably will, as it's lower and easier to bomb, but then they'll be in the shooting range down there.
So, it's all about who can hold the higher positions.
UKR has to avoid losing troops as much as possible, so they probably need to retreat some more.
On the other hand, it's interesting to see how much (=losses) ruz is actually able to take. No of troops close to 2000 almost every day.
Which does not make it any easier for UKR, of course. Especially as there still are the 'red lines' drawn with blood for some governments who are not comfortable with their ammo used on ruz soil.
Around Kreminna the new development is forest fires, mainly on the ruz side (with as little forest as left there). Which may change the dynamics.
Turtle tanks - looks like UKR has found a way to neutralise the EW on their roofs, several videos with the inferno that must be inside when these tanks are hit.
EW development is very fast on both sides.

[tango15]

A military equipment manufacturing plant caught fire in the Moscow region. A fire at an electrical substation in Balashikha the night before. That's on the territory of the FSB unit No 35533, part of the mil research and development staff.

Massive explosions in the Crimea, the mil airfield again.

UKR, Budanov, reported that ruz abandoned plan to enter Sumy due to complications in Kharkiv direction. And that the Kharkiv front will be stabilised soon.
‘I’ll Put a D-30 on You’ – Russian Commander Coerces Soldiers to Advance in Kharkiv Region Under Threat of Death. The general situation is 'volatile', as neither side has strong established positions there.

ruz has been effective recruiting young marginalised people and the unemployed in Europe for simple sabotage - videos, photos, even graffiti in suitable places has been analysed/geolocated and used for targeting aid to UKR.

Chinese banks have to outsmart the secondary sanctions to carry on activities with ruz.

Blinken and Stoltenberg keep claiming the time is with UKR and that UKR is going to be a NATO member and EU member... well, weren't the EU and US (and other) leaders told it's not wise to give ruz time to adapt and adjust?? So much time has been lost, and so many lives.

putin has not made significant changes in his government, and what he has done indicates he's not happy with the war dragging on for so long.

Blinken staying in Kiyv for such a long time is impressive, but his big words of supporting UKR until NATO membership are just words, considering the situation currently, of no real help.

The situation in Georgia is getting more nervous - the govt presses on with the pro-ruz law, demonstrations etc against it, more than the police can handle (a couple of days already).

I don't want to derail the thread too far, but from my experience of Georgia I felt that, where Russia was concerned, the country was deeply divided. Russian is the second language, since nobody but Georgians speak their own. I went to Stalin's birthplace at Gory and people in that area, understandably, were very much in favour of Russia. Younger people I spoke to felt far more aligned with Western Europe. Georgia's economy is largely agricultural and therefore relatively poor. It has an agreement with Azerbaijan for its fuel to pass by rail through Georgia en route to the Black Sea port of Batumi, and as such has access to relatively cheap oil. I imagine Putin must have put a lot of pressure on their leaders to supply troops etc., for Ukraine, but so far they have resisted. My suspicion is that a back-door deal has been done that will now allow this. However, Georgia's slim and certainly long-term hopes of joining the EU and/or NATO must now be receding at a rapid rate.

[probes]

pro-putin Fico shot. Hm.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

They caught the perp, not that I'm expecting anything much from that in terms of why.
What will tell us what's going on is if Orban gets shot soon too. If not, well, everyone in the Balkans has more enemies than they can count.
Even if someone's a Saint, their Great(x20)grandfather probably stabbed someone else's Great(x20) grandfather, and there's a score to settle.

[tango15]

They caught the perp, not that I'm expecting anything much from that in terms of why.
What will tell us what's going on is if Orban gets shot soon too. If not, well, everyone in the Balkans has more enemies than they can count.
Even if someone's a Saint, their Great(x20)grandfather probably stabbed someone else's Great(x20) grandfather, and there's a score to settle.

Very well put, F3. I don't think the expression 'forgive and forget' exists in any of the Balkan languages. I did wonder if the attempted assassination of Fico was perhaps a warning to Orban. Let us hope he heeds it.
They say the perp is in his 70s. I somehow can't imagine myself as a highly-paid assassin, especially in the Balkans!

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Wouldn't surprise me if the perp has terminal cancer, or similar.
Pomeranian Grenadier.

[probes]

reports of heavy damage in Belbek, but I haven't found any substantial imagery. Fox?

As for Georgia, Tango, it has moved on from the soviet times and to some extent, mentality. Remarkable numbers of people, that is.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

No damage imagery, other than the S-400, that I've seen so far.
Unconfirmed reports indicate up to 38 aircraft on the base, of which 1 Mig-31 and 3 Su-27s damaged.
The reports of aircraft damage reports include Russian ones.
This may be the first use of Block 2 ATACMS, reports from both sides indicate 10 used, which has longer range than the Block 1s used so far, which couldn't reach Balbek.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

lots of inbounds to Crimea tonight, all over the western half.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

The Slovakian plot thickens....

[probes]

lots of inbounds to Crimea tonight, all over the western half.

yep, another attack, Belbak included, rumours of fuel storage hit. Again, no definite data and the ruz says everything was shot down. No civilian casualties - aren't the UKR skilled avoiding that?
That's of the night before:
Crimea strike: satellite images show traces of fire at Belbek airfield

[probes]

More about Juraj Cintula:

The man who shot the Slovak Prime Minister by Peter G Feher.

In light of all this, I think it is wrong to link the attack with Fico’s decision not to provide more assistance to Ukraine. Especially since Slovak society is quite pro-Russian. Let’s not forget that Bratislava still celebrates the occupation of the Slovak capital by Soviet troops during World War II.
There is no significant anti-Russian sentiment in deep society. On the other hand, the average Slovak is concerned about the possibility of the country being drawn into war. Slovakia practically has no army anymore, because the previous left-liberal government gave everything to the Ukrainians. A typical situation is that the defense of Slovak airspace is provided by the Hungarian Air Force.
However, according to indications, the attack can be linked to the fierce internal political struggle in Slovakia. A month ago, Fico posted a video on social media in which he talks about how the progressive media will shoot him and his government. The video was leaked to the Austrian daily Der Standard.

- and:

In a recording that was part of the political fight at that time, the Prime Minister criticized the texts of progressive media, which, in his opinion, could lead to violence against state officials. “I only expect that this frustration deepened by Denník N. Smečko or Aktualita (that it will happen) will turn into the murder of one of the government’s leading politicians, and I am not exaggerating even a millimeter,” Fico added.